X-Git-Url: http://git.bitcoin.ninja/index.cgi?a=blobdiff_plain;f=lightning%2Fsrc%2Frouting%2Fscoring.rs;h=aaafbc35b6134f4edd839e13c4b3a4c7830759e2;hb=e9d9711de4ddc20b78eb110abfe400da6eef863d;hp=34bf1da1325c592473dbf8775fabf762702feb85;hpb=3695b2aa13dcd271c9c4252cda3a0b9b79d3d879;p=rust-lightning diff --git a/lightning/src/routing/scoring.rs b/lightning/src/routing/scoring.rs index 34bf1da1..aaafbc35 100644 --- a/lightning/src/routing/scoring.rs +++ b/lightning/src/routing/scoring.rs @@ -708,147 +708,6 @@ impl ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters { } } -/// Tracks the historical state of a distribution as a weighted average of how much time was spent -/// in each of 8 buckets. -#[derive(Clone, Copy)] -struct HistoricalBucketRangeTracker { - buckets: [u16; 8], -} - -impl HistoricalBucketRangeTracker { - fn new() -> Self { Self { buckets: [0; 8] } } - fn track_datapoint(&mut self, liquidity_offset_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64) { - // We have 8 leaky buckets for min and max liquidity. Each bucket tracks the amount of time - // we spend in each bucket as a 16-bit fixed-point number with a 5 bit fractional part. - // - // Each time we update our liquidity estimate, we add 32 (1.0 in our fixed-point system) to - // the buckets for the current min and max liquidity offset positions. - // - // We then decay each bucket by multiplying by 2047/2048 (avoiding dividing by a - // non-power-of-two). This ensures we can't actually overflow the u16 - when we get to - // 63,457 adding 32 and decaying by 2047/2048 leaves us back at 63,457. - // - // In total, this allows us to track data for the last 8,000 or so payments across a given - // channel. - // - // These constants are a balance - we try to fit in 2 bytes per bucket to reduce overhead, - // and need to balance having more bits in the decimal part (to ensure decay isn't too - // non-linear) with having too few bits in the mantissa, causing us to not store very many - // datapoints. - // - // The constants were picked experimentally, selecting a decay amount that restricts us - // from overflowing buckets without having to cap them manually. - - // Ensure the bucket index is in the range [0, 7], even if the liquidity offset is zero or - // the channel's capacity, though the second should generally never happen. - debug_assert!(liquidity_offset_msat <= capacity_msat); - let bucket_idx: u8 = (liquidity_offset_msat * 8 / capacity_msat.saturating_add(1)) - .try_into().unwrap_or(32); // 32 is bogus for 8 buckets, and will be ignored - debug_assert!(bucket_idx < 8); - if bucket_idx < 8 { - for e in self.buckets.iter_mut() { - *e = ((*e as u32) * 2047 / 2048) as u16; - } - self.buckets[bucket_idx as usize] = self.buckets[bucket_idx as usize].saturating_add(32); - } - } - /// Decay all buckets by the given number of half-lives. Used to more aggressively remove old - /// datapoints as we receive newer information. - fn time_decay_data(&mut self, half_lives: u32) { - for e in self.buckets.iter_mut() { - *e = e.checked_shr(half_lives).unwrap_or(0); - } - } -} - -impl_writeable_tlv_based!(HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, { (0, buckets, required) }); - -struct HistoricalMinMaxBuckets<'a> { - min_liquidity_offset_history: &'a HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, - max_liquidity_offset_history: &'a HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, -} - -impl HistoricalMinMaxBuckets<'_> { - #[inline] - fn get_decayed_buckets(&self, now: T, last_updated: T, half_life: Duration) - -> ([u16; 8], [u16; 8], u32) { - let required_decays = now.duration_since(last_updated).as_secs() - .checked_div(half_life.as_secs()) - .map_or(u32::max_value(), |decays| cmp::min(decays, u32::max_value() as u64) as u32); - let mut min_buckets = *self.min_liquidity_offset_history; - min_buckets.time_decay_data(required_decays); - let mut max_buckets = *self.max_liquidity_offset_history; - max_buckets.time_decay_data(required_decays); - (min_buckets.buckets, max_buckets.buckets, required_decays) - } - - #[inline] - fn calculate_success_probability_times_billion( - &self, now: T, last_updated: T, half_life: Duration, payment_amt_64th_bucket: u8) - -> Option { - // If historical penalties are enabled, calculate the penalty by walking the set of - // historical liquidity bucket (min, max) combinations (where min_idx < max_idx) and, for - // each, calculate the probability of success given our payment amount, then total the - // weighted average probability of success. - // - // We use a sliding scale to decide which point within a given bucket will be compared to - // the amount being sent - for lower-bounds, the amount being sent is compared to the lower - // edge of the first bucket (i.e. zero), but compared to the upper 7/8ths of the last - // bucket (i.e. 9 times the index, or 63), with each bucket in between increasing the - // comparison point by 1/64th. For upper-bounds, the same applies, however with an offset - // of 1/64th (i.e. starting at one and ending at 64). This avoids failing to assign - // penalties to channels at the edges. - // - // If we used the bottom edge of buckets, we'd end up never assigning any penalty at all to - // such a channel when sending less than ~0.19% of the channel's capacity (e.g. ~200k sats - // for a 1 BTC channel!). - // - // If we used the middle of each bucket we'd never assign any penalty at all when sending - // less than 1/16th of a channel's capacity, or 1/8th if we used the top of the bucket. - let mut total_valid_points_tracked = 0; - - // Check if all our buckets are zero, once decayed and treat it as if we had no data. We - // don't actually use the decayed buckets, though, as that would lose precision. - let (decayed_min_buckets, decayed_max_buckets, required_decays) = - self.get_decayed_buckets(now, last_updated, half_life); - if decayed_min_buckets.iter().all(|v| *v == 0) || decayed_max_buckets.iter().all(|v| *v == 0) { - return None; - } - - for (min_idx, min_bucket) in self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate() { - for max_bucket in self.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().take(8 - min_idx) { - total_valid_points_tracked += (*min_bucket as u64) * (*max_bucket as u64); - } - } - // If the total valid points is smaller than 1.0 (i.e. 32 in our fixed-point scheme), treat - // it as if we were fully decayed. - if total_valid_points_tracked.checked_shr(required_decays).unwrap_or(0) < 32*32 { - return None; - } - - let mut cumulative_success_prob_times_billion = 0; - for (min_idx, min_bucket) in self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate() { - for (max_idx, max_bucket) in self.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate().take(8 - min_idx) { - let bucket_prob_times_million = (*min_bucket as u64) * (*max_bucket as u64) - * 1024 * 1024 / total_valid_points_tracked; - let min_64th_bucket = min_idx as u8 * 9; - let max_64th_bucket = (7 - max_idx as u8) * 9 + 1; - if payment_amt_64th_bucket > max_64th_bucket { - // Success probability 0, the payment amount is above the max liquidity - } else if payment_amt_64th_bucket <= min_64th_bucket { - cumulative_success_prob_times_billion += bucket_prob_times_million * 1024; - } else { - cumulative_success_prob_times_billion += bucket_prob_times_million * - ((max_64th_bucket - payment_amt_64th_bucket) as u64) * 1024 / - ((max_64th_bucket - min_64th_bucket) as u64); - } - } - } - - Some(cumulative_success_prob_times_billion) - } -} - /// Accounting for channel liquidity balance uncertainty. /// /// Direction is defined in terms of [`NodeId`] partial ordering, where the source node is the @@ -873,8 +732,7 @@ struct ChannelLiquidity { struct DirectedChannelLiquidity, BRT: Deref, T: Time, U: Deref> { min_liquidity_offset_msat: L, max_liquidity_offset_msat: L, - min_liquidity_offset_history: BRT, - max_liquidity_offset_history: BRT, + liquidity_history: HistoricalMinMaxBuckets, inflight_htlc_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64, last_updated: U, @@ -915,12 +773,9 @@ impl>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU let amt = directed_info.effective_capacity().as_msat(); let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, 0, amt, self.decay_params); - let buckets = HistoricalMinMaxBuckets { - min_liquidity_offset_history: &dir_liq.min_liquidity_offset_history, - max_liquidity_offset_history: &dir_liq.max_liquidity_offset_history, - }; - let (min_buckets, max_buckets, _) = buckets.get_decayed_buckets(now, - *dir_liq.last_updated, self.decay_params.historical_no_updates_half_life); + let (min_buckets, max_buckets, _) = dir_liq.liquidity_history + .get_decayed_buckets(now, *dir_liq.last_updated, + self.decay_params.historical_no_updates_half_life); log_debug!(self.logger, core::concat!( "Liquidity from {} to {} via {} is in the range ({}, {}).\n", @@ -984,6 +839,9 @@ impl>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU /// /// Because the datapoints are decayed slowly over time, values will eventually return to /// `Some(([0; 8], [0; 8]))`. + /// + /// In order to fetch a single success probability from the buckets provided here, as used in + /// the scoring model, see [`Self::historical_estimated_payment_success_probability`]. pub fn historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(&self, scid: u64, target: &NodeId) -> Option<([u16; 8], [u16; 8])> { let graph = self.network_graph.read_only(); @@ -994,12 +852,9 @@ impl>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU let amt = directed_info.effective_capacity().as_msat(); let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, 0, amt, self.decay_params); - let buckets = HistoricalMinMaxBuckets { - min_liquidity_offset_history: &dir_liq.min_liquidity_offset_history, - max_liquidity_offset_history: &dir_liq.max_liquidity_offset_history, - }; - let (min_buckets, mut max_buckets, _) = buckets.get_decayed_buckets(T::now(), - *dir_liq.last_updated, self.decay_params.historical_no_updates_half_life); + let (min_buckets, mut max_buckets, _) = dir_liq.liquidity_history + .get_decayed_buckets(dir_liq.now, *dir_liq.last_updated, + self.decay_params.historical_no_updates_half_life); // Note that the liquidity buckets are an offset from the edge, so we inverse // the max order to get the probabilities from zero. max_buckets.reverse(); @@ -1009,6 +864,34 @@ impl>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU } None } + + /// Query the probability of payment success sending the given `amount_msat` over the channel + /// with `scid` towards the given `target` node, based on the historical estimated liquidity + /// bounds. + /// + /// These are the same bounds as returned by + /// [`Self::historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities`] (but not those returned by + /// [`Self::estimated_channel_liquidity_range`]). + pub fn historical_estimated_payment_success_probability( + &self, scid: u64, target: &NodeId, amount_msat: u64) + -> Option { + let graph = self.network_graph.read_only(); + + if let Some(chan) = graph.channels().get(&scid) { + if let Some(liq) = self.channel_liquidities.get(&scid) { + if let Some((directed_info, source)) = chan.as_directed_to(target) { + let capacity_msat = directed_info.effective_capacity().as_msat(); + let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, 0, capacity_msat, self.decay_params); + + return dir_liq.liquidity_history.calculate_success_probability_times_billion( + dir_liq.now, *dir_liq.last_updated, + self.decay_params.historical_no_updates_half_life, amount_msat, capacity_msat + ).map(|p| p as f64 / (1024 * 1024 * 1024) as f64); + } + } + } + None + } } impl ChannelLiquidity { @@ -1040,8 +923,10 @@ impl ChannelLiquidity { DirectedChannelLiquidity { min_liquidity_offset_msat, max_liquidity_offset_msat, - min_liquidity_offset_history, - max_liquidity_offset_history, + liquidity_history: HistoricalMinMaxBuckets { + min_liquidity_offset_history, + max_liquidity_offset_history, + }, inflight_htlc_msat, capacity_msat, last_updated: &self.last_updated, @@ -1067,8 +952,10 @@ impl ChannelLiquidity { DirectedChannelLiquidity { min_liquidity_offset_msat, max_liquidity_offset_msat, - min_liquidity_offset_history, - max_liquidity_offset_history, + liquidity_history: HistoricalMinMaxBuckets { + min_liquidity_offset_history, + max_liquidity_offset_history, + }, inflight_htlc_msat, capacity_msat, last_updated: &mut self.last_updated, @@ -1094,6 +981,7 @@ impl, BRT: Deref, /// Returns a liquidity penalty for routing the given HTLC `amount_msat` through the channel in /// this direction. fn penalty_msat(&self, amount_msat: u64, score_params: &ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters) -> u64 { + let available_capacity = self.available_capacity(); let max_liquidity_msat = self.max_liquidity_msat(); let min_liquidity_msat = core::cmp::min(self.min_liquidity_msat(), max_liquidity_msat); @@ -1125,28 +1013,20 @@ impl, BRT: Deref, } }; + if amount_msat >= available_capacity { + // We're trying to send more than the capacity, use a max penalty. + res = res.saturating_add(Self::combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat, + NEGATIVE_LOG10_UPPER_BOUND * 2048, + score_params.historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat, + score_params.historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat)); + return res; + } + if score_params.historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat != 0 || score_params.historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat != 0 { - let payment_amt_64th_bucket = if amount_msat < u64::max_value() / 64 { - amount_msat * 64 / self.capacity_msat.saturating_add(1) - } else { - // Only use 128-bit arithmetic when multiplication will overflow to avoid 128-bit - // division. This branch should only be hit in fuzz testing since the amount would - // need to be over 2.88 million BTC in practice. - ((amount_msat as u128) * 64 / (self.capacity_msat as u128).saturating_add(1)) - .try_into().unwrap_or(65) - }; - #[cfg(not(fuzzing))] - debug_assert!(payment_amt_64th_bucket <= 64); - if payment_amt_64th_bucket > 64 { return res; } - - let buckets = HistoricalMinMaxBuckets { - min_liquidity_offset_history: &self.min_liquidity_offset_history, - max_liquidity_offset_history: &self.max_liquidity_offset_history, - }; - if let Some(cumulative_success_prob_times_billion) = buckets + if let Some(cumulative_success_prob_times_billion) = self.liquidity_history .calculate_success_probability_times_billion(self.now, *self.last_updated, - self.decay_params.historical_no_updates_half_life, payment_amt_64th_bucket as u8) + self.decay_params.historical_no_updates_half_life, amount_msat, self.capacity_msat) { let historical_negative_log10_times_2048 = approx::negative_log10_times_2048(cumulative_success_prob_times_billion + 1, 1024 * 1024 * 1024); res = res.saturating_add(Self::combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat, @@ -1172,15 +1052,15 @@ impl, BRT: Deref, /// Computes the liquidity penalty from the penalty multipliers. #[inline(always)] - fn combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat: u64, negative_log10_times_2048: u64, + fn combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat: u64, mut negative_log10_times_2048: u64, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: u64, liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: u64, ) -> u64 { - let liquidity_penalty_msat = { - // Upper bound the liquidity penalty to ensure some channel is selected. - let multiplier_msat = liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat; - let max_penalty_msat = multiplier_msat.saturating_mul(NEGATIVE_LOG10_UPPER_BOUND); - (negative_log10_times_2048.saturating_mul(multiplier_msat) / 2048).min(max_penalty_msat) - }; + negative_log10_times_2048 = + negative_log10_times_2048.min(NEGATIVE_LOG10_UPPER_BOUND * 2048); + + // Upper bound the liquidity penalty to ensure some channel is selected. + let liquidity_penalty_msat = negative_log10_times_2048 + .saturating_mul(liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat) / 2048; let amount_penalty_msat = negative_log10_times_2048 .saturating_mul(liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat) .saturating_mul(amount_msat) / 2048 / AMOUNT_PENALTY_DIVISOR; @@ -1189,17 +1069,20 @@ impl, BRT: Deref, } /// Returns the lower bound of the channel liquidity balance in this direction. + #[inline(always)] fn min_liquidity_msat(&self) -> u64 { self.decayed_offset_msat(*self.min_liquidity_offset_msat) } /// Returns the upper bound of the channel liquidity balance in this direction. + #[inline(always)] fn max_liquidity_msat(&self) -> u64 { self.available_capacity() .saturating_sub(self.decayed_offset_msat(*self.max_liquidity_offset_msat)) } /// Returns the capacity minus the in-flight HTLCs in this direction. + #[inline(always)] fn available_capacity(&self) -> u64 { self.capacity_msat.saturating_sub(self.inflight_htlc_msat) } @@ -1266,15 +1149,15 @@ impl, BRT: DerefMut Self { Self { buckets: [0; 8] } } + pub(super) fn track_datapoint(&mut self, liquidity_offset_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64) { + // We have 8 leaky buckets for min and max liquidity. Each bucket tracks the amount of time + // we spend in each bucket as a 16-bit fixed-point number with a 5 bit fractional part. + // + // Each time we update our liquidity estimate, we add 32 (1.0 in our fixed-point system) to + // the buckets for the current min and max liquidity offset positions. + // + // We then decay each bucket by multiplying by 2047/2048 (avoiding dividing by a + // non-power-of-two). This ensures we can't actually overflow the u16 - when we get to + // 63,457 adding 32 and decaying by 2047/2048 leaves us back at 63,457. + // + // In total, this allows us to track data for the last 8,000 or so payments across a given + // channel. + // + // These constants are a balance - we try to fit in 2 bytes per bucket to reduce overhead, + // and need to balance having more bits in the decimal part (to ensure decay isn't too + // non-linear) with having too few bits in the mantissa, causing us to not store very many + // datapoints. + // + // The constants were picked experimentally, selecting a decay amount that restricts us + // from overflowing buckets without having to cap them manually. + + // Ensure the bucket index is in the range [0, 7], even if the liquidity offset is zero or + // the channel's capacity, though the second should generally never happen. + debug_assert!(liquidity_offset_msat <= capacity_msat); + let bucket_idx: u8 = (liquidity_offset_msat * 8 / capacity_msat.saturating_add(1)) + .try_into().unwrap_or(32); // 32 is bogus for 8 buckets, and will be ignored + debug_assert!(bucket_idx < 8); + if bucket_idx < 8 { + for e in self.buckets.iter_mut() { + *e = ((*e as u32) * 2047 / 2048) as u16; + } + self.buckets[bucket_idx as usize] = self.buckets[bucket_idx as usize].saturating_add(32); + } + } + /// Decay all buckets by the given number of half-lives. Used to more aggressively remove old + /// datapoints as we receive newer information. + pub(super) fn time_decay_data(&mut self, half_lives: u32) { + for e in self.buckets.iter_mut() { + *e = e.checked_shr(half_lives).unwrap_or(0); + } + } + } + + impl_writeable_tlv_based!(HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, { (0, buckets, required) }); + + pub(super) struct HistoricalMinMaxBuckets> { + pub(super) min_liquidity_offset_history: D, + pub(super) max_liquidity_offset_history: D, + } + + impl> HistoricalMinMaxBuckets { + #[inline] + pub(super) fn get_decayed_buckets(&self, now: T, last_updated: T, half_life: Duration) + -> ([u16; 8], [u16; 8], u32) { + let required_decays = now.duration_since(last_updated).as_secs() + .checked_div(half_life.as_secs()) + .map_or(u32::max_value(), |decays| cmp::min(decays, u32::max_value() as u64) as u32); + let mut min_buckets = *self.min_liquidity_offset_history; + min_buckets.time_decay_data(required_decays); + let mut max_buckets = *self.max_liquidity_offset_history; + max_buckets.time_decay_data(required_decays); + (min_buckets.buckets, max_buckets.buckets, required_decays) + } + + #[inline] + pub(super) fn calculate_success_probability_times_billion( + &self, now: T, last_updated: T, half_life: Duration, amount_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64) + -> Option { + // If historical penalties are enabled, calculate the penalty by walking the set of + // historical liquidity bucket (min, max) combinations (where min_idx < max_idx) and, for + // each, calculate the probability of success given our payment amount, then total the + // weighted average probability of success. + // + // We use a sliding scale to decide which point within a given bucket will be compared to + // the amount being sent - for lower-bounds, the amount being sent is compared to the lower + // edge of the first bucket (i.e. zero), but compared to the upper 7/8ths of the last + // bucket (i.e. 9 times the index, or 63), with each bucket in between increasing the + // comparison point by 1/64th. For upper-bounds, the same applies, however with an offset + // of 1/64th (i.e. starting at one and ending at 64). This avoids failing to assign + // penalties to channels at the edges. + // + // If we used the bottom edge of buckets, we'd end up never assigning any penalty at all to + // such a channel when sending less than ~0.19% of the channel's capacity (e.g. ~200k sats + // for a 1 BTC channel!). + // + // If we used the middle of each bucket we'd never assign any penalty at all when sending + // less than 1/16th of a channel's capacity, or 1/8th if we used the top of the bucket. + let mut total_valid_points_tracked = 0; + + let payment_amt_64th_bucket: u8 = if amount_msat < u64::max_value() / 64 { + (amount_msat * 64 / capacity_msat.saturating_add(1)) + .try_into().unwrap_or(65) + } else { + // Only use 128-bit arithmetic when multiplication will overflow to avoid 128-bit + // division. This branch should only be hit in fuzz testing since the amount would + // need to be over 2.88 million BTC in practice. + ((amount_msat as u128) * 64 / (capacity_msat as u128).saturating_add(1)) + .try_into().unwrap_or(65) + }; + #[cfg(not(fuzzing))] + debug_assert!(payment_amt_64th_bucket <= 64); + if payment_amt_64th_bucket >= 64 { return None; } + + // Check if all our buckets are zero, once decayed and treat it as if we had no data. We + // don't actually use the decayed buckets, though, as that would lose precision. + let (decayed_min_buckets, decayed_max_buckets, required_decays) = + self.get_decayed_buckets(now, last_updated, half_life); + if decayed_min_buckets.iter().all(|v| *v == 0) || decayed_max_buckets.iter().all(|v| *v == 0) { + return None; + } + + for (min_idx, min_bucket) in self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate() { + for max_bucket in self.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().take(8 - min_idx) { + total_valid_points_tracked += (*min_bucket as u64) * (*max_bucket as u64); + } + } + // If the total valid points is smaller than 1.0 (i.e. 32 in our fixed-point scheme), treat + // it as if we were fully decayed. + if total_valid_points_tracked.checked_shr(required_decays).unwrap_or(0) < 32*32 { + return None; + } + + let mut cumulative_success_prob_times_billion = 0; + for (min_idx, min_bucket) in self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate() { + for (max_idx, max_bucket) in self.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate().take(8 - min_idx) { + let bucket_prob_times_million = (*min_bucket as u64) * (*max_bucket as u64) + * 1024 * 1024 / total_valid_points_tracked; + let min_64th_bucket = min_idx as u8 * 9; + let max_64th_bucket = (7 - max_idx as u8) * 9 + 1; + if payment_amt_64th_bucket > max_64th_bucket { + // Success probability 0, the payment amount is above the max liquidity + } else if payment_amt_64th_bucket <= min_64th_bucket { + cumulative_success_prob_times_billion += bucket_prob_times_million * 1024; + } else { + cumulative_success_prob_times_billion += bucket_prob_times_million * + ((max_64th_bucket - payment_amt_64th_bucket) as u64) * 1024 / + ((max_64th_bucket - min_64th_bucket) as u64); + } + } + } + + Some(cumulative_success_prob_times_billion) + } + } +} +use bucketed_history::{HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, HistoricalMinMaxBuckets}; + impl>, L: Deref, T: Time> Writeable for ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime where L::Target: Logger { #[inline] fn write(&self, w: &mut W) -> Result<(), io::Error> { @@ -2925,6 +2968,8 @@ mod tests { assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, ¶ms), 47); assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target), None); + assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_payment_success_probability(42, &target, 42), + None); scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(1), 42); assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, ¶ms), 2048); @@ -2932,6 +2977,10 @@ mod tests { // octile. assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target), Some(([32, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0], [32, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0]))); + assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_payment_success_probability(42, &target, 1), + Some(1.0)); + assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_payment_success_probability(42, &target, 500), + Some(0.0)); // Even after we tell the scorer we definitely have enough available liquidity, it will // still remember that there was some failure in the past, and assign a non-0 penalty. @@ -2941,6 +2990,17 @@ mod tests { assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target), Some(([31, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 32], [31, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 32]))); + // The exact success probability is a bit complicated and involves integer rounding, so we + // simply check bounds here. + let five_hundred_prob = + scorer.historical_estimated_payment_success_probability(42, &target, 500).unwrap(); + assert!(five_hundred_prob > 0.5); + assert!(five_hundred_prob < 0.52); + let one_prob = + scorer.historical_estimated_payment_success_probability(42, &target, 1).unwrap(); + assert!(one_prob < 1.0); + assert!(one_prob > 0.99); + // Advance the time forward 16 half-lives (which the docs claim will ensure all data is // gone), and check that we're back to where we started. SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10 * 16)); @@ -2949,13 +3009,16 @@ mod tests { // data entirely instead. assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target), Some(([0; 8], [0; 8]))); + assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_payment_success_probability(42, &target, 1), None); - let usage = ChannelUsage { + let mut usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 100, inflight_htlc_msat: 1024, effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_024 }, }; scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(1), 42); + assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, ¶ms), 2048); + usage.inflight_htlc_msat = 0; assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, ¶ms), 409); let usage = ChannelUsage {