From: Matt Corallo Date: Sat, 19 Aug 2023 18:43:45 +0000 (+0000) Subject: Special-case the 0th minimum bucket in historical scoring X-Git-Tag: v0.0.117-alpha1~8^2~2 X-Git-Url: http://git.bitcoin.ninja/index.cgi?a=commitdiff_plain;h=b7d1e5f516ff340f8ba512df3e62d502b18e92fd;p=rust-lightning Special-case the 0th minimum bucket in historical scoring Points in the 0th minimum bucket either indicate we sent a payment which is < 1/16,384th of the channel's capacity or, more likely, we failed to send a payment. In either case, averaging the success probability across the full range of upper-bounds doesn't make a whole lot of sense - if we've never managed to send a "real" payment over a channel, we should be considering it quite poor. To address this, we special-case the 0th minimum bucket and only look at the largest-offset max bucket when calculating the success probability. --- diff --git a/lightning/src/routing/scoring.rs b/lightning/src/routing/scoring.rs index 5fd355c23..465beef29 100644 --- a/lightning/src/routing/scoring.rs +++ b/lightning/src/routing/scoring.rs @@ -1787,7 +1787,36 @@ mod bucketed_history { } let mut cumulative_success_prob_times_billion = 0; - for (min_idx, min_bucket) in self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate() { + // Special-case the 0th min bucket - it generally means we failed a payment, so only + // consider the highest (i.e. largest-offset-from-max-capacity) max bucket for all + // points against the 0th min bucket. This avoids the case where we fail to route + // increasingly lower values over a channel, but treat each failure as a separate + // datapoint, many of which may have relatively high maximum-available-liquidity + // values, which will result in us thinking we have some nontrivial probability of + // routing up to that amount. + if self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets[0] != 0 { + let mut highest_max_bucket_with_points = 0; // The highest max-bucket with any data + let mut total_max_points = 0; // Total points in max-buckets to consider + for (max_idx, max_bucket) in self.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate() { + if *max_bucket >= 32 { + highest_max_bucket_with_points = cmp::max(highest_max_bucket_with_points, max_idx); + } + total_max_points += *max_bucket as u64; + } + let max_bucket_end_pos = BUCKET_START_POS[32 - highest_max_bucket_with_points] - 1; + if payment_pos < max_bucket_end_pos { + let bucket_prob_times_billion = + (self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets[0] as u64) * total_max_points + * 1024 * 1024 * 1024 / total_valid_points_tracked; + cumulative_success_prob_times_billion += bucket_prob_times_billion * + ((max_bucket_end_pos - payment_pos) as u64) / + // Add an additional one in the divisor as the payment bucket has been + // rounded down. + (max_bucket_end_pos + 1) as u64; + } + } + + for (min_idx, min_bucket) in self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate().skip(1) { let min_bucket_start_pos = BUCKET_START_POS[min_idx]; for (max_idx, max_bucket) in self.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate().take(32 - min_idx) { let max_bucket_end_pos = BUCKET_START_POS[32 - max_idx] - 1; @@ -3054,7 +3083,7 @@ mod tests { // Even after we tell the scorer we definitely have enough available liquidity, it will // still remember that there was some failure in the past, and assign a non-0 penalty. scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(1000), 43); - assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, ¶ms), 198); + assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, ¶ms), 32); // The first points should be decayed just slightly and the last bucket has a new point. assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target), Some(([31, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 32, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0], @@ -3064,12 +3093,12 @@ mod tests { // simply check bounds here. let five_hundred_prob = scorer.historical_estimated_payment_success_probability(42, &target, 500).unwrap(); - assert!(five_hundred_prob > 0.5); - assert!(five_hundred_prob < 0.52); + assert!(five_hundred_prob > 0.66); + assert!(five_hundred_prob < 0.68); let one_prob = scorer.historical_estimated_payment_success_probability(42, &target, 1).unwrap(); - assert!(one_prob < 0.95); - assert!(one_prob > 0.90); + assert!(one_prob < 1.0); + assert!(one_prob > 0.95); // Advance the time forward 16 half-lives (which the docs claim will ensure all data is // gone), and check that we're back to where we started. @@ -3089,7 +3118,7 @@ mod tests { scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(1), 42); assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, ¶ms), 2048); usage.inflight_htlc_msat = 0; - assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, ¶ms), 409); + assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, ¶ms), 866); let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1, @@ -3275,9 +3304,7 @@ mod tests { assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target), Some(([63, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0], [32, 31, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0]))); - assert!(scorer.historical_estimated_payment_success_probability(42, &target, amount_msat) - .unwrap() > 0.24); - assert!(scorer.historical_estimated_payment_success_probability(42, &target, amount_msat) - .unwrap() < 0.25); + assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_payment_success_probability(42, &target, amount_msat), + Some(0.0)); } }