Update the lightning graph snapshot used in benchmarks
[rust-lightning] / lightning / src / routing / scoring.rs
index 524f0ed3158b40dabae37d9516009a2588b6cd08..3c451098eef369b2de1cd513c96bd586145dd5af 100644 (file)
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@
 //! # use lightning::routing::gossip::NetworkGraph;
 //! # use lightning::routing::router::{RouteParameters, find_route};
 //! # use lightning::routing::scoring::{ProbabilisticScorer, ProbabilisticScoringParameters};
-//! # use lightning::chain::keysinterface::{KeysManager, KeysInterface};
+//! # use lightning::chain::keysinterface::KeysManager;
 //! # use lightning::util::logger::{Logger, Record};
 //! # use bitcoin::secp256k1::PublicKey;
 //! #
 //!
 //! [`find_route`]: crate::routing::router::find_route
 
-use ln::msgs::DecodeError;
-use routing::gossip::{EffectiveCapacity, NetworkGraph, NodeId};
-use routing::router::RouteHop;
-use util::ser::{Readable, ReadableArgs, Writeable, Writer};
-use util::logger::Logger;
-use util::time::Time;
+use crate::ln::msgs::DecodeError;
+use crate::routing::gossip::{EffectiveCapacity, NetworkGraph, NodeId};
+use crate::routing::router::RouteHop;
+use crate::util::ser::{Readable, ReadableArgs, Writeable, Writer};
+use crate::util::logger::Logger;
+use crate::util::time::Time;
 
-use prelude::*;
-use core::fmt;
+use crate::prelude::*;
+use core::{cmp, fmt};
 use core::cell::{RefCell, RefMut};
+use core::convert::TryInto;
 use core::ops::{Deref, DerefMut};
 use core::time::Duration;
-use io::{self, Read};
-use sync::{Mutex, MutexGuard};
+use crate::io::{self, Read};
+use crate::sync::{Mutex, MutexGuard};
 
 /// We define Score ever-so-slightly differently based on whether we are being built for C bindings
 /// or not. For users, `LockableScore` must somehow be writeable to disk. For Rust users, this is
@@ -102,6 +103,12 @@ pub trait Score $(: $supertrait)* {
 
        /// Handles updating channel penalties after successfully routing along a path.
        fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop]);
+
+       /// Handles updating channel penalties after a probe over the given path failed.
+       fn probe_failed(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop], short_channel_id: u64);
+
+       /// Handles updating channel penalties after a probe over the given path succeeded.
+       fn probe_successful(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop]);
 }
 
 impl<S: Score, T: DerefMut<Target=S> $(+ $supertrait)*> Score for T {
@@ -118,6 +125,14 @@ impl<S: Score, T: DerefMut<Target=S> $(+ $supertrait)*> Score for T {
        fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop]) {
                self.deref_mut().payment_path_successful(path)
        }
+
+       fn probe_failed(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop], short_channel_id: u64) {
+               self.deref_mut().probe_failed(path, short_channel_id)
+       }
+
+       fn probe_successful(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop]) {
+               self.deref_mut().probe_successful(path)
+       }
 }
 } }
 
@@ -148,6 +163,7 @@ pub trait LockableScore<'a> {
 /// use the Persister to persist it.
 pub trait WriteableScore<'a>: LockableScore<'a> + Writeable {}
 
+#[cfg(not(c_bindings))]
 impl<'a, T> WriteableScore<'a> for T where T: LockableScore<'a> + Writeable {}
 
 /// (C-not exported)
@@ -173,15 +189,52 @@ pub struct MultiThreadedLockableScore<S: Score> {
        score: Mutex<S>,
 }
 #[cfg(c_bindings)]
-/// (C-not exported)
+/// A locked `MultiThreadedLockableScore`.
+pub struct MultiThreadedScoreLock<'a, S: Score>(MutexGuard<'a, S>);
+#[cfg(c_bindings)]
+impl<'a, T: Score + 'a> Score for MultiThreadedScoreLock<'a, T> {
+       fn channel_penalty_msat(&self, scid: u64, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, usage: ChannelUsage) -> u64 {
+               self.0.channel_penalty_msat(scid, source, target, usage)
+       }
+       fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop], short_channel_id: u64) {
+               self.0.payment_path_failed(path, short_channel_id)
+       }
+       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop]) {
+               self.0.payment_path_successful(path)
+       }
+       fn probe_failed(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop], short_channel_id: u64) {
+               self.0.probe_failed(path, short_channel_id)
+       }
+       fn probe_successful(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop]) {
+               self.0.probe_successful(path)
+       }
+}
+#[cfg(c_bindings)]
+impl<'a, T: Score + 'a> Writeable for MultiThreadedScoreLock<'a, T> {
+       fn write<W: Writer>(&self, writer: &mut W) -> Result<(), io::Error> {
+               self.0.write(writer)
+       }
+}
+
+#[cfg(c_bindings)]
 impl<'a, T: Score + 'a> LockableScore<'a> for MultiThreadedLockableScore<T> {
-       type Locked = MutexGuard<'a, T>;
+       type Locked = MultiThreadedScoreLock<'a, T>;
 
-       fn lock(&'a self) -> MutexGuard<'a, T> {
-               Mutex::lock(&self.score).unwrap()
+       fn lock(&'a self) -> MultiThreadedScoreLock<'a, T> {
+               MultiThreadedScoreLock(Mutex::lock(&self.score).unwrap())
        }
 }
 
+#[cfg(c_bindings)]
+impl<T: Score> Writeable for MultiThreadedLockableScore<T> {
+       fn write<W: Writer>(&self, writer: &mut W) -> Result<(), io::Error> {
+               self.lock().write(writer)
+       }
+}
+
+#[cfg(c_bindings)]
+impl<'a, T: Score + 'a> WriteableScore<'a> for MultiThreadedLockableScore<T> {}
+
 #[cfg(c_bindings)]
 impl<T: Score> MultiThreadedLockableScore<T> {
        /// Creates a new [`MultiThreadedLockableScore`] given an underlying [`Score`].
@@ -207,7 +260,7 @@ impl<'a, S: Writeable> Writeable for MutexGuard<'a, S> {
 }
 
 /// Proposed use of a channel passed as a parameter to [`Score::channel_penalty_msat`].
-#[derive(Clone, Copy)]
+#[derive(Clone, Copy, Debug)]
 pub struct ChannelUsage {
        /// The amount to send through the channel, denominated in millisatoshis.
        pub amount_msat: u64,
@@ -241,6 +294,10 @@ impl Score for FixedPenaltyScorer {
        fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, _path: &[&RouteHop], _short_channel_id: u64) {}
 
        fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, _path: &[&RouteHop]) {}
+
+       fn probe_failed(&mut self, _path: &[&RouteHop], _short_channel_id: u64) {}
+
+       fn probe_successful(&mut self, _path: &[&RouteHop]) {}
 }
 
 impl Writeable for FixedPenaltyScorer {
@@ -262,25 +319,34 @@ impl ReadableArgs<u64> for FixedPenaltyScorer {
 #[cfg(not(feature = "no-std"))]
 type ConfiguredTime = std::time::Instant;
 #[cfg(feature = "no-std")]
-use util::time::Eternity;
+use crate::util::time::Eternity;
 #[cfg(feature = "no-std")]
 type ConfiguredTime = Eternity;
 
 /// [`Score`] implementation using channel success probability distributions.
 ///
-/// Based on *Optimally Reliable & Cheap Payment Flows on the Lightning Network* by Rene Pickhardt
-/// and Stefan Richter [[1]]. Given the uncertainty of channel liquidity balances, probability
-/// distributions are defined based on knowledge learned from successful and unsuccessful attempts.
-/// Then the negative `log10` of the success probability is used to determine the cost of routing a
-/// specific HTLC amount through a channel.
+/// Channels are tracked with upper and lower liquidity bounds - when an HTLC fails at a channel,
+/// we learn that the upper-bound on the available liquidity is lower than the amount of the HTLC.
+/// When a payment is forwarded through a channel (but fails later in the route), we learn the
+/// lower-bound on the channel's available liquidity must be at least the value of the HTLC.
+///
+/// These bounds are then used to determine a success probability using the formula from
+/// *Optimally Reliable & Cheap Payment Flows on the Lightning Network* by Rene Pickhardt
+/// and Stefan Richter [[1]] (i.e. `(upper_bound - payment_amount) / (upper_bound - lower_bound)`).
 ///
-/// Knowledge about channel liquidity balances takes the form of upper and lower bounds on the
-/// possible liquidity. Certainty of the bounds is decreased over time using a decay function. See
-/// [`ProbabilisticScoringParameters`] for details.
+/// This probability is combined with the [`liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat`] and
+/// [`liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat`] parameters to calculate a concrete penalty in
+/// milli-satoshis. The penalties, when added across all hops, have the property of being linear in
+/// terms of the entire path's success probability. This allows the router to directly compare
+/// penalties for different paths. See the documentation of those parameters for the exact formulas.
 ///
-/// Since the scorer aims to learn the current channel liquidity balances, it works best for nodes
-/// with high payment volume or that actively probe the [`NetworkGraph`]. Nodes with low payment
-/// volume are more likely to experience failed payment paths, which would need to be retried.
+/// The liquidity bounds are decayed by halving them every [`liquidity_offset_half_life`].
+///
+/// Further, we track the history of our upper and lower liquidity bounds for each channel,
+/// allowing us to assign a second penalty (using [`historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat`]
+/// and [`historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat`]) based on the same probability
+/// formula, but using the history of a channel rather than our latest estimates for the liquidity
+/// bounds.
 ///
 /// # Note
 ///
@@ -288,6 +354,11 @@ type ConfiguredTime = Eternity;
 /// behavior.
 ///
 /// [1]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.05322
+/// [`liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat`]: ProbabilisticScoringParameters::liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat
+/// [`liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat`]: ProbabilisticScoringParameters::liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat
+/// [`liquidity_offset_half_life`]: ProbabilisticScoringParameters::liquidity_offset_half_life
+/// [`historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat`]: ProbabilisticScoringParameters::historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat
+/// [`historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat`]: ProbabilisticScoringParameters::historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat
 pub type ProbabilisticScorer<G, L> = ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime::<G, L, ConfiguredTime>;
 
 /// Probabilistic [`Score`] implementation.
@@ -306,6 +377,9 @@ where L::Target: Logger {
 ///
 /// Used to configure base, liquidity, and amount penalties, the sum of which comprises the channel
 /// penalty (i.e., the amount in msats willing to be paid to avoid routing through the channel).
+///
+/// The penalty applied to any channel by the [`ProbabilisticScorer`] is the sum of each of the
+/// parameters here.
 #[derive(Clone)]
 pub struct ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
        /// A fixed penalty in msats to apply to each channel.
@@ -313,8 +387,23 @@ pub struct ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
        /// Default value: 500 msat
        pub base_penalty_msat: u64,
 
+       /// A multiplier used with the payment amount to calculate a fixed penalty applied to each
+       /// channel, in excess of the [`base_penalty_msat`].
+       ///
+       /// The purpose of the amount penalty is to avoid having fees dominate the channel cost (i.e.,
+       /// fees plus penalty) for large payments. The penalty is computed as the product of this
+       /// multiplier and `2^30`ths of the payment amount.
+       ///
+       /// ie `base_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat * amount_msat / 2^30`
+       ///
+       /// Default value: 8,192 msat
+       ///
+       /// [`base_penalty_msat`]: Self::base_penalty_msat
+       pub base_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: u64,
+
        /// A multiplier used in conjunction with the negative `log10` of the channel's success
-       /// probability for a payment to determine the liquidity penalty.
+       /// probability for a payment, as determined by our latest estimates of the channel's
+       /// liquidity, to determine the liquidity penalty.
        ///
        /// The penalty is based in part on the knowledge learned from prior successful and unsuccessful
        /// payments. This knowledge is decayed over time based on [`liquidity_offset_half_life`]. The
@@ -323,19 +412,27 @@ pub struct ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
        /// uncertainty bounds of the channel liquidity balance. Amounts above the upper bound will
        /// result in a `u64::max_value` penalty, however.
        ///
-       /// Default value: 40,000 msat
+       /// `-log10(success_probability) * liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat`
+       ///
+       /// Default value: 30,000 msat
        ///
        /// [`liquidity_offset_half_life`]: Self::liquidity_offset_half_life
        pub liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: u64,
 
-       /// The time required to elapse before any knowledge learned about channel liquidity balances is
-       /// cut in half.
+       /// Whenever this amount of time elapses since the last update to a channel's liquidity bounds,
+       /// the distance from the bounds to "zero" is cut in half. In other words, the lower-bound on
+       /// the available liquidity is halved and the upper-bound moves half-way to the channel's total
+       /// capacity.
+       ///
+       /// Because halving the liquidity bounds grows the uncertainty on the channel's liquidity,
+       /// the penalty for an amount within the new bounds may change. See the [`ProbabilisticScorer`]
+       /// struct documentation for more info on the way the liquidity bounds are used.
        ///
-       /// The bounds are defined in terms of offsets and are initially zero. Increasing the offsets
-       /// gives tighter bounds on the channel liquidity balance. Thus, halving the offsets decreases
-       /// the certainty of the channel liquidity balance.
+       /// For example, if the channel's capacity is 1 million sats, and the current upper and lower
+       /// liquidity bounds are 200,000 sats and 600,000 sats, after this amount of time the upper
+       /// and lower liquidity bounds will be decayed to 100,000 and 800,000 sats.
        ///
-       /// Default value: 1 hour
+       /// Default value: 6 hours
        ///
        /// # Note
        ///
@@ -344,14 +441,15 @@ pub struct ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
        pub liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration,
 
        /// A multiplier used in conjunction with a payment amount and the negative `log10` of the
-       /// channel's success probability for the payment to determine the amount penalty.
+       /// channel's success probability for the payment, as determined by our latest estimates of the
+       /// channel's liquidity, to determine the amount penalty.
        ///
        /// The purpose of the amount penalty is to avoid having fees dominate the channel cost (i.e.,
        /// fees plus penalty) for large payments. The penalty is computed as the product of this
        /// multiplier and `2^20`ths of the payment amount, weighted by the negative `log10` of the
        /// success probability.
        ///
-       /// `-log10(success_probability) * amount_penalty_multiplier_msat * amount_msat / 2^20`
+       /// `-log10(success_probability) * liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat * amount_msat / 2^20`
        ///
        /// In practice, this means for 0.1 success probability (`-log10(0.1) == 1`) each `2^20`th of
        /// the amount will result in a penalty of the multiplier. And, as the success probability
@@ -359,13 +457,61 @@ pub struct ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
        /// probabilities, the multiplier will have a decreasing effect as the negative `log10` will
        /// fall below `1`.
        ///
-       /// Default value: 256 msat
-       pub amount_penalty_multiplier_msat: u64,
+       /// Default value: 192 msat
+       pub liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: u64,
 
-       /// A list of nodes that won't be considered during path finding.
+       /// A multiplier used in conjunction with the negative `log10` of the channel's success
+       /// probability for the payment, as determined based on the history of our estimates of the
+       /// channel's available liquidity, to determine a penalty.
+       ///
+       /// This penalty is similar to [`liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat`], however, instead of using
+       /// only our latest estimate for the current liquidity available in the channel, it estimates
+       /// success probability based on the estimated liquidity available in the channel through
+       /// history. Specifically, every time we update our liquidity bounds on a given channel, we
+       /// track which of several buckets those bounds fall into, exponentially decaying the
+       /// probability of each bucket as new samples are added.
+       ///
+       /// Default value: 10,000 msat
+       ///
+       /// [`liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat`]: Self::liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat
+       pub historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: u64,
+
+       /// A multiplier used in conjunction with the payment amount and the negative `log10` of the
+       /// channel's success probability for the payment, as determined based on the history of our
+       /// estimates of the channel's available liquidity, to determine a penalty.
+       ///
+       /// The purpose of the amount penalty is to avoid having fees dominate the channel cost for
+       /// large payments. The penalty is computed as the product of this multiplier and the `2^20`ths
+       /// of the payment amount, weighted by the negative `log10` of the success probability.
+       ///
+       /// This penalty is similar to [`liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat`], however, instead
+       /// of using only our latest estimate for the current liquidity available in the channel, it
+       /// estimates success probability based on the estimated liquidity available in the channel
+       /// through history. Specifically, every time we update our liquidity bounds on a given
+       /// channel, we track which of several buckets those bounds fall into, exponentially decaying
+       /// the probability of each bucket as new samples are added.
+       ///
+       /// Default value: 64 msat
+       ///
+       /// [`liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat`]: Self::liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat
+       pub historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: u64,
+
+       /// If we aren't learning any new datapoints for a channel, the historical liquidity bounds
+       /// tracking can simply live on with increasingly stale data. Instead, when a channel has not
+       /// seen a liquidity estimate update for this amount of time, the historical datapoints are
+       /// decayed by half.
+       ///
+       /// Note that after 16 or more half lives all historical data will be completely gone.
+       ///
+       /// Default value: 14 days
+       pub historical_no_updates_half_life: Duration,
+
+       /// Manual penalties used for the given nodes. Allows to set a particular penalty for a given
+       /// node. Note that a manual penalty of `u64::max_value()` means the node would not ever be
+       /// considered during path finding.
        ///
        /// (C-not exported)
-       pub banned_nodes: HashSet<NodeId>,
+       pub manual_node_penalties: HashMap<NodeId, u64>,
 
        /// This penalty is applied when `htlc_maximum_msat` is equal to or larger than half of the
        /// channel's capacity, which makes us prefer nodes with a smaller `htlc_maximum_msat`. We
@@ -374,6 +520,146 @@ pub struct ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
        ///
        /// Default value: 250 msat
        pub anti_probing_penalty_msat: u64,
+
+       /// This penalty is applied when the amount we're attempting to send over a channel exceeds our
+       /// current estimate of the channel's available liquidity.
+       ///
+       /// Note that in this case all other penalties, including the
+       /// [`liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat`] and [`liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat`]-based
+       /// penalties, as well as the [`base_penalty_msat`] and the [`anti_probing_penalty_msat`], if
+       /// applicable, are still included in the overall penalty.
+       ///
+       /// If you wish to avoid creating paths with such channels entirely, setting this to a value of
+       /// `u64::max_value()` will guarantee that.
+       ///
+       /// Default value: 1_0000_0000_000 msat (1 Bitcoin)
+       ///
+       /// [`liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat`]: Self::liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat
+       /// [`liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat`]: Self::liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat
+       /// [`base_penalty_msat`]: Self::base_penalty_msat
+       /// [`anti_probing_penalty_msat`]: Self::anti_probing_penalty_msat
+       pub considered_impossible_penalty_msat: u64,
+}
+
+/// Tracks the historical state of a distribution as a weighted average of how much time was spent
+/// in each of 8 buckets.
+#[derive(Clone, Copy)]
+struct HistoricalBucketRangeTracker {
+       buckets: [u16; 8],
+}
+
+impl HistoricalBucketRangeTracker {
+       fn new() -> Self { Self { buckets: [0; 8] } }
+       fn track_datapoint(&mut self, bucket_idx: u8) {
+               // We have 8 leaky buckets for min and max liquidity. Each bucket tracks the amount of time
+               // we spend in each bucket as a 16-bit fixed-point number with a 5 bit fractional part.
+               //
+               // Each time we update our liquidity estimate, we add 32 (1.0 in our fixed-point system) to
+               // the buckets for the current min and max liquidity offset positions.
+               //
+               // We then decay each bucket by multiplying by 2047/2048 (avoiding dividing by a
+               // non-power-of-two). This ensures we can't actually overflow the u16 - when we get to
+               // 63,457 adding 32 and decaying by 2047/2048 leaves us back at 63,457.
+               //
+               // In total, this allows us to track data for the last 8,000 or so payments across a given
+               // channel.
+               //
+               // These constants are a balance - we try to fit in 2 bytes per bucket to reduce overhead,
+               // and need to balance having more bits in the decimal part (to ensure decay isn't too
+               // non-linear) with having too few bits in the mantissa, causing us to not store very many
+               // datapoints.
+               //
+               // The constants were picked experimentally, selecting a decay amount that restricts us
+               // from overflowing buckets without having to cap them manually.
+               debug_assert!(bucket_idx < 8);
+               if bucket_idx < 8 {
+                       for e in self.buckets.iter_mut() {
+                               *e = ((*e as u32) * 2047 / 2048) as u16;
+                       }
+                       self.buckets[bucket_idx as usize] = self.buckets[bucket_idx as usize].saturating_add(32);
+               }
+       }
+       /// Decay all buckets by the given number of half-lives. Used to more aggressively remove old
+       /// datapoints as we receive newer information.
+       fn time_decay_data(&mut self, half_lives: u32) {
+               for e in self.buckets.iter_mut() {
+                       *e = e.checked_shr(half_lives).unwrap_or(0);
+               }
+       }
+}
+
+impl_writeable_tlv_based!(HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, { (0, buckets, required) });
+
+struct HistoricalMinMaxBuckets<'a> {
+       min_liquidity_offset_history: &'a HistoricalBucketRangeTracker,
+       max_liquidity_offset_history: &'a HistoricalBucketRangeTracker,
+}
+
+impl HistoricalMinMaxBuckets<'_> {
+       #[inline]
+       fn calculate_success_probability_times_billion(&self, required_decays: u32, payment_amt_64th_bucket: u8) -> Option<u64> {
+               // If historical penalties are enabled, calculate the penalty by walking the set of
+               // historical liquidity bucket (min, max) combinations (where min_idx < max_idx) and, for
+               // each, calculate the probability of success given our payment amount, then total the
+               // weighted average probability of success.
+               //
+               // We use a sliding scale to decide which point within a given bucket will be compared to
+               // the amount being sent - for lower-bounds, the amount being sent is compared to the lower
+               // edge of the first bucket (i.e. zero), but compared to the upper 7/8ths of the last
+               // bucket (i.e. 9 times the index, or 63), with each bucket in between increasing the
+               // comparison point by 1/64th. For upper-bounds, the same applies, however with an offset
+               // of 1/64th (i.e. starting at one and ending at 64). This avoids failing to assign
+               // penalties to channels at the edges.
+               //
+               // If we used the bottom edge of buckets, we'd end up never assigning any penalty at all to
+               // such a channel when sending less than ~0.19% of the channel's capacity (e.g. ~200k sats
+               // for a 1 BTC channel!).
+               //
+               // If we used the middle of each bucket we'd never assign any penalty at all when sending
+               // less than 1/16th of a channel's capacity, or 1/8th if we used the top of the bucket.
+               let mut total_valid_points_tracked = 0;
+
+               // Rather than actually decaying the individual buckets, which would lose precision, we
+               // simply track whether all buckets would be decayed to zero, in which case we treat it as
+               // if we had no data.
+               let mut is_fully_decayed = true;
+               let mut check_track_bucket_contains_undecayed_points =
+                       |bucket_val: u16| if bucket_val.checked_shr(required_decays).unwrap_or(0) > 0 { is_fully_decayed = false; };
+
+               for (min_idx, min_bucket) in self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate() {
+                       check_track_bucket_contains_undecayed_points(*min_bucket);
+                       for max_bucket in self.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().take(8 - min_idx) {
+                               total_valid_points_tracked += (*min_bucket as u64) * (*max_bucket as u64);
+                               check_track_bucket_contains_undecayed_points(*max_bucket);
+                       }
+               }
+               // If the total valid points is smaller than 1.0 (i.e. 32 in our fixed-point scheme), treat
+               // it as if we were fully decayed.
+               if total_valid_points_tracked.checked_shr(required_decays).unwrap_or(0) < 32*32 || is_fully_decayed {
+                       return None;
+               }
+
+               let mut cumulative_success_prob_times_billion = 0;
+               for (min_idx, min_bucket) in self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate() {
+                       for (max_idx, max_bucket) in self.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate().take(8 - min_idx) {
+                               let bucket_prob_times_million = (*min_bucket as u64) * (*max_bucket as u64)
+                                       * 1024 * 1024 / total_valid_points_tracked;
+                               let min_64th_bucket = min_idx as u8 * 9;
+                               let max_64th_bucket = (7 - max_idx as u8) * 9 + 1;
+                               if payment_amt_64th_bucket > max_64th_bucket {
+                                       // Success probability 0, the payment amount is above the max liquidity
+                               } else if payment_amt_64th_bucket <= min_64th_bucket {
+                                       cumulative_success_prob_times_billion += bucket_prob_times_million * 1024;
+                               } else {
+                                       cumulative_success_prob_times_billion += bucket_prob_times_million *
+                                               ((max_64th_bucket - payment_amt_64th_bucket) as u64) * 1024 /
+                                               ((max_64th_bucket - min_64th_bucket) as u64);
+                               }
+                       }
+               }
+
+               Some(cumulative_success_prob_times_billion)
+       }
 }
 
 /// Accounting for channel liquidity balance uncertainty.
@@ -390,17 +676,22 @@ struct ChannelLiquidity<T: Time> {
 
        /// Time when the liquidity bounds were last modified.
        last_updated: T,
+
+       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker,
+       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker,
 }
 
 /// A snapshot of [`ChannelLiquidity`] in one direction assuming a certain channel capacity and
 /// decayed with a given half life.
-struct DirectedChannelLiquidity<L: Deref<Target = u64>, T: Time, U: Deref<Target = T>> {
+struct DirectedChannelLiquidity<'a, L: Deref<Target = u64>, BRT: Deref<Target = HistoricalBucketRangeTracker>, T: Time, U: Deref<Target = T>> {
        min_liquidity_offset_msat: L,
        max_liquidity_offset_msat: L,
+       min_liquidity_offset_history: BRT,
+       max_liquidity_offset_history: BRT,
        capacity_msat: u64,
        last_updated: U,
        now: T,
-       half_life: Duration,
+       params: &'a ProbabilisticScoringParameters,
 }
 
 impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime<G, L, T> where L::Target: Logger {
@@ -432,7 +723,7 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU
                                let log_direction = |source, target| {
                                        if let Some((directed_info, _)) = chan_debug.as_directed_to(target) {
                                                let amt = directed_info.effective_capacity().as_msat();
-                                               let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, amt, self.params.liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                                               let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, amt, &self.params);
                                                log_debug!(self.logger, "Liquidity from {:?} to {:?} via {} is in the range ({}, {})",
                                                        source, target, scid, dir_liq.min_liquidity_msat(), dir_liq.max_liquidity_msat());
                                        } else {
@@ -457,7 +748,7 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU
                        if let Some(liq) = self.channel_liquidities.get(&scid) {
                                if let Some((directed_info, source)) = chan.as_directed_to(target) {
                                        let amt = directed_info.effective_capacity().as_msat();
-                                       let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, amt, self.params.liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                                       let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, amt, &self.params);
                                        return Some((dir_liq.min_liquidity_msat(), dir_liq.max_liquidity_msat()));
                                }
                        }
@@ -468,17 +759,27 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU
        /// Marks the node with the given `node_id` as banned, i.e.,
        /// it will be avoided during path finding.
        pub fn add_banned(&mut self, node_id: &NodeId) {
-               self.params.banned_nodes.insert(*node_id);
+               self.params.manual_node_penalties.insert(*node_id, u64::max_value());
        }
 
        /// Removes the node with the given `node_id` from the list of nodes to avoid.
        pub fn remove_banned(&mut self, node_id: &NodeId) {
-               self.params.banned_nodes.remove(node_id);
+               self.params.manual_node_penalties.remove(node_id);
+       }
+
+       /// Sets a manual penalty for the given node.
+       pub fn set_manual_penalty(&mut self, node_id: &NodeId, penalty: u64) {
+               self.params.manual_node_penalties.insert(*node_id, penalty);
+       }
+
+       /// Removes the node with the given `node_id` from the list of manual penalties.
+       pub fn remove_manual_penalty(&mut self, node_id: &NodeId) {
+               self.params.manual_node_penalties.remove(node_id);
        }
 
-       /// Clears the list of nodes that are avoided during path finding.
-       pub fn clear_banned(&mut self) {
-               self.params.banned_nodes = HashSet::new();
+       /// Clears the list of manual penalties that are applied during path finding.
+       pub fn clear_manual_penalties(&mut self) {
+               self.params.manual_node_penalties = HashMap::new();
        }
 }
 
@@ -487,11 +788,16 @@ impl ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
        fn zero_penalty() -> Self {
                Self {
                        base_penalty_msat: 0,
+                       base_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: 0,
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 0,
-                       liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(3600),
-                       amount_penalty_multiplier_msat: 0,
-                       banned_nodes: HashSet::new(),
+                       liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(6 * 60 * 60),
+                       liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: 0,
+                       historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 0,
+                       historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: 0,
+                       historical_no_updates_half_life: Duration::from_secs(60 * 60 * 24 * 14),
+                       manual_node_penalties: HashMap::new(),
                        anti_probing_penalty_msat: 0,
+                       considered_impossible_penalty_msat: 0,
                }
        }
 
@@ -499,7 +805,7 @@ impl ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
        /// they will be avoided during path finding.
        pub fn add_banned_from_list(&mut self, node_ids: Vec<NodeId>) {
                for id in node_ids {
-                       self.banned_nodes.insert(id);
+                       self.manual_node_penalties.insert(id, u64::max_value());
                }
        }
 }
@@ -508,11 +814,16 @@ impl Default for ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
        fn default() -> Self {
                Self {
                        base_penalty_msat: 500,
-                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 40_000,
-                       liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(3600),
-                       amount_penalty_multiplier_msat: 256,
-                       banned_nodes: HashSet::new(),
+                       base_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: 8192,
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 30_000,
+                       liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(6 * 60 * 60),
+                       liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: 192,
+                       historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 10_000,
+                       historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: 64,
+                       historical_no_updates_half_life: Duration::from_secs(60 * 60 * 24 * 14),
+                       manual_node_penalties: HashMap::new(),
                        anti_probing_penalty_msat: 250,
+                       considered_impossible_penalty_msat: 1_0000_0000_000,
                }
        }
 }
@@ -523,49 +834,61 @@ impl<T: Time> ChannelLiquidity<T> {
                Self {
                        min_liquidity_offset_msat: 0,
                        max_liquidity_offset_msat: 0,
+                       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
+                       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
                        last_updated: T::now(),
                }
        }
 
        /// Returns a view of the channel liquidity directed from `source` to `target` assuming
        /// `capacity_msat`.
-       fn as_directed(
-               &self, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, capacity_msat: u64, half_life: Duration
-       ) -> DirectedChannelLiquidity<&u64, T, &T> {
-               let (min_liquidity_offset_msat, max_liquidity_offset_msat) = if source < target {
-                       (&self.min_liquidity_offset_msat, &self.max_liquidity_offset_msat)
-               } else {
-                       (&self.max_liquidity_offset_msat, &self.min_liquidity_offset_msat)
-               };
+       fn as_directed<'a>(
+               &self, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, capacity_msat: u64, params: &'a ProbabilisticScoringParameters
+       ) -> DirectedChannelLiquidity<'a, &u64, &HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, T, &T> {
+               let (min_liquidity_offset_msat, max_liquidity_offset_msat, min_liquidity_offset_history, max_liquidity_offset_history) =
+                       if source < target {
+                               (&self.min_liquidity_offset_msat, &self.max_liquidity_offset_msat,
+                                       &self.min_liquidity_offset_history, &self.max_liquidity_offset_history)
+                       } else {
+                               (&self.max_liquidity_offset_msat, &self.min_liquidity_offset_msat,
+                                       &self.max_liquidity_offset_history, &self.min_liquidity_offset_history)
+                       };
 
                DirectedChannelLiquidity {
                        min_liquidity_offset_msat,
                        max_liquidity_offset_msat,
+                       min_liquidity_offset_history,
+                       max_liquidity_offset_history,
                        capacity_msat,
                        last_updated: &self.last_updated,
                        now: T::now(),
-                       half_life,
+                       params,
                }
        }
 
        /// Returns a mutable view of the channel liquidity directed from `source` to `target` assuming
        /// `capacity_msat`.
-       fn as_directed_mut(
-               &mut self, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, capacity_msat: u64, half_life: Duration
-       ) -> DirectedChannelLiquidity<&mut u64, T, &mut T> {
-               let (min_liquidity_offset_msat, max_liquidity_offset_msat) = if source < target {
-                       (&mut self.min_liquidity_offset_msat, &mut self.max_liquidity_offset_msat)
-               } else {
-                       (&mut self.max_liquidity_offset_msat, &mut self.min_liquidity_offset_msat)
-               };
+       fn as_directed_mut<'a>(
+               &mut self, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, capacity_msat: u64, params: &'a ProbabilisticScoringParameters
+       ) -> DirectedChannelLiquidity<'a, &mut u64, &mut HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, T, &mut T> {
+               let (min_liquidity_offset_msat, max_liquidity_offset_msat, min_liquidity_offset_history, max_liquidity_offset_history) =
+                       if source < target {
+                               (&mut self.min_liquidity_offset_msat, &mut self.max_liquidity_offset_msat,
+                                       &mut self.min_liquidity_offset_history, &mut self.max_liquidity_offset_history)
+                       } else {
+                               (&mut self.max_liquidity_offset_msat, &mut self.min_liquidity_offset_msat,
+                                       &mut self.max_liquidity_offset_history, &mut self.min_liquidity_offset_history)
+                       };
 
                DirectedChannelLiquidity {
                        min_liquidity_offset_msat,
                        max_liquidity_offset_msat,
+                       min_liquidity_offset_history,
+                       max_liquidity_offset_history,
                        capacity_msat,
                        last_updated: &mut self.last_updated,
                        now: T::now(),
-                       half_life,
+                       params,
                }
        }
 }
@@ -580,62 +903,95 @@ const PRECISION_LOWER_BOUND_DENOMINATOR: u64 = approx::LOWER_BITS_BOUND;
 
 /// The divisor used when computing the amount penalty.
 const AMOUNT_PENALTY_DIVISOR: u64 = 1 << 20;
+const BASE_AMOUNT_PENALTY_DIVISOR: u64 = 1 << 30;
 
-impl<L: Deref<Target = u64>, T: Time, U: Deref<Target = T>> DirectedChannelLiquidity<L, T, U> {
-       /// Returns a penalty for routing the given HTLC `amount_msat` through the channel in this
-       /// direction.
+impl<L: Deref<Target = u64>, BRT: Deref<Target = HistoricalBucketRangeTracker>, T: Time, U: Deref<Target = T>> DirectedChannelLiquidity<'_, L, BRT, T, U> {
+       /// Returns a liquidity penalty for routing the given HTLC `amount_msat` through the channel in
+       /// this direction.
        fn penalty_msat(&self, amount_msat: u64, params: &ProbabilisticScoringParameters) -> u64 {
                let max_liquidity_msat = self.max_liquidity_msat();
                let min_liquidity_msat = core::cmp::min(self.min_liquidity_msat(), max_liquidity_msat);
-               if amount_msat <= min_liquidity_msat {
+
+               let mut res = if amount_msat <= min_liquidity_msat {
                        0
                } else if amount_msat >= max_liquidity_msat {
-                       if amount_msat > max_liquidity_msat {
-                               u64::max_value()
-                       } else if max_liquidity_msat != self.capacity_msat {
-                               // Avoid using the failed channel on retry.
-                               u64::max_value()
-                       } else {
-                               // Equivalent to hitting the else clause below with the amount equal to the
-                               // effective capacity and without any certainty on the liquidity upper bound.
-                               let negative_log10_times_2048 = NEGATIVE_LOG10_UPPER_BOUND * 2048;
-                               self.combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat, negative_log10_times_2048, params)
-                       }
+                       // Equivalent to hitting the else clause below with the amount equal to the effective
+                       // capacity and without any certainty on the liquidity upper bound, plus the
+                       // impossibility penalty.
+                       let negative_log10_times_2048 = NEGATIVE_LOG10_UPPER_BOUND * 2048;
+                       Self::combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat, negative_log10_times_2048,
+                                       params.liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat,
+                                       params.liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat)
+                               .saturating_add(params.considered_impossible_penalty_msat)
                } else {
                        let numerator = (max_liquidity_msat - amount_msat).saturating_add(1);
                        let denominator = (max_liquidity_msat - min_liquidity_msat).saturating_add(1);
                        if amount_msat - min_liquidity_msat < denominator / PRECISION_LOWER_BOUND_DENOMINATOR {
                                // If the failure probability is < 1.5625% (as 1 - numerator/denominator < 1/64),
                                // don't bother trying to use the log approximation as it gets too noisy to be
-                               // particularly helpful, instead just round down to 0 and return the base penalty.
-                               params.base_penalty_msat
+                               // particularly helpful, instead just round down to 0.
+                               0
                        } else {
                                let negative_log10_times_2048 =
                                        approx::negative_log10_times_2048(numerator, denominator);
-                               self.combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat, negative_log10_times_2048, params)
+                               Self::combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat, negative_log10_times_2048,
+                                       params.liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat,
+                                       params.liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat)
+                       }
+               };
+
+               if params.historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat != 0 ||
+                  params.historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat != 0 {
+                       let required_decays = self.now.duration_since(*self.last_updated).as_secs()
+                               .checked_div(params.historical_no_updates_half_life.as_secs())
+                               .map_or(u32::max_value(), |decays| cmp::min(decays, u32::max_value() as u64) as u32);
+                       let payment_amt_64th_bucket = amount_msat * 64 / self.capacity_msat;
+                       debug_assert!(payment_amt_64th_bucket <= 64);
+                       if payment_amt_64th_bucket > 64 { return res; }
+
+                       let buckets = HistoricalMinMaxBuckets {
+                               min_liquidity_offset_history: &self.min_liquidity_offset_history,
+                               max_liquidity_offset_history: &self.max_liquidity_offset_history,
+                       };
+                       if let Some(cumulative_success_prob_times_billion) = buckets
+                                       .calculate_success_probability_times_billion(required_decays, payment_amt_64th_bucket as u8) {
+                               let historical_negative_log10_times_2048 = approx::negative_log10_times_2048(cumulative_success_prob_times_billion + 1, 1024 * 1024 * 1024);
+                               res = res.saturating_add(Self::combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat,
+                                       historical_negative_log10_times_2048, params.historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat,
+                                       params.historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat));
+                       } else {
+                               // If we don't have any valid points (or, once decayed, we have less than a full
+                               // point), redo the non-historical calculation with no liquidity bounds tracked and
+                               // the historical penalty multipliers.
+                               let max_capacity = self.capacity_msat.saturating_sub(amount_msat).saturating_add(1);
+                               let negative_log10_times_2048 =
+                                       approx::negative_log10_times_2048(max_capacity, self.capacity_msat.saturating_add(1));
+                               res = res.saturating_add(Self::combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat, negative_log10_times_2048,
+                                       params.historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat,
+                                       params.historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat));
+                               return res;
                        }
                }
+
+               res
        }
 
-       /// Computes the liquidity and amount penalties and adds them to the base penalty.
+       /// Computes the liquidity penalty from the penalty multipliers.
        #[inline(always)]
-       fn combined_penalty_msat(
-               &self, amount_msat: u64, negative_log10_times_2048: u64,
-               params: &ProbabilisticScoringParameters
+       fn combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat: u64, negative_log10_times_2048: u64,
+               liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: u64, liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: u64,
        ) -> u64 {
                let liquidity_penalty_msat = {
                        // Upper bound the liquidity penalty to ensure some channel is selected.
-                       let multiplier_msat = params.liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat;
+                       let multiplier_msat = liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat;
                        let max_penalty_msat = multiplier_msat.saturating_mul(NEGATIVE_LOG10_UPPER_BOUND);
                        (negative_log10_times_2048.saturating_mul(multiplier_msat) / 2048).min(max_penalty_msat)
                };
                let amount_penalty_msat = negative_log10_times_2048
-                       .saturating_mul(params.amount_penalty_multiplier_msat)
+                       .saturating_mul(liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat)
                        .saturating_mul(amount_msat) / 2048 / AMOUNT_PENALTY_DIVISOR;
 
-               params.base_penalty_msat
-                       .saturating_add(liquidity_penalty_msat)
-                       .saturating_add(amount_penalty_msat)
+               liquidity_penalty_msat.saturating_add(amount_penalty_msat)
        }
 
        /// Returns the lower bound of the channel liquidity balance in this direction.
@@ -652,30 +1008,34 @@ impl<L: Deref<Target = u64>, T: Time, U: Deref<Target = T>> DirectedChannelLiqui
 
        fn decayed_offset_msat(&self, offset_msat: u64) -> u64 {
                self.now.duration_since(*self.last_updated).as_secs()
-                       .checked_div(self.half_life.as_secs())
+                       .checked_div(self.params.liquidity_offset_half_life.as_secs())
                        .and_then(|decays| offset_msat.checked_shr(decays as u32))
                        .unwrap_or(0)
        }
 }
 
-impl<L: DerefMut<Target = u64>, T: Time, U: DerefMut<Target = T>> DirectedChannelLiquidity<L, T, U> {
+impl<L: DerefMut<Target = u64>, BRT: DerefMut<Target = HistoricalBucketRangeTracker>, T: Time, U: DerefMut<Target = T>> DirectedChannelLiquidity<'_, L, BRT, T, U> {
        /// Adjusts the channel liquidity balance bounds when failing to route `amount_msat`.
        fn failed_at_channel<Log: Deref>(&mut self, amount_msat: u64, chan_descr: fmt::Arguments, logger: &Log) where Log::Target: Logger {
-               if amount_msat < self.max_liquidity_msat() {
-                       log_debug!(logger, "Setting max liquidity of {} to {}", chan_descr, amount_msat);
+               let existing_max_msat = self.max_liquidity_msat();
+               if amount_msat < existing_max_msat {
+                       log_debug!(logger, "Setting max liquidity of {} from {} to {}", chan_descr, existing_max_msat, amount_msat);
                        self.set_max_liquidity_msat(amount_msat);
                } else {
-                       log_trace!(logger, "Max liquidity of {} already more than {}", chan_descr, amount_msat);
+                       log_trace!(logger, "Max liquidity of {} is {} (already less than or equal to {})",
+                               chan_descr, existing_max_msat, amount_msat);
                }
        }
 
        /// Adjusts the channel liquidity balance bounds when failing to route `amount_msat` downstream.
        fn failed_downstream<Log: Deref>(&mut self, amount_msat: u64, chan_descr: fmt::Arguments, logger: &Log) where Log::Target: Logger {
-               if amount_msat > self.min_liquidity_msat() {
-                       log_debug!(logger, "Setting min liquidity of {} to {}", chan_descr, amount_msat);
+               let existing_min_msat = self.min_liquidity_msat();
+               if amount_msat > existing_min_msat {
+                       log_debug!(logger, "Setting min liquidity of {} from {} to {}", existing_min_msat, chan_descr, amount_msat);
                        self.set_min_liquidity_msat(amount_msat);
                } else {
-                       log_trace!(logger, "Min liquidity of {} already less than {}", chan_descr, amount_msat);
+                       log_trace!(logger, "Min liquidity of {} is {} (already greater than or equal to {})",
+                               chan_descr, existing_min_msat, amount_msat);
                }
        }
 
@@ -686,6 +1046,27 @@ impl<L: DerefMut<Target = u64>, T: Time, U: DerefMut<Target = T>> DirectedChanne
                self.set_max_liquidity_msat(max_liquidity_msat);
        }
 
+       fn update_history_buckets(&mut self) {
+               let half_lives = self.now.duration_since(*self.last_updated).as_secs()
+                       .checked_div(self.params.historical_no_updates_half_life.as_secs())
+                       .map(|v| v.try_into().unwrap_or(u32::max_value())).unwrap_or(u32::max_value());
+               self.min_liquidity_offset_history.time_decay_data(half_lives);
+               self.max_liquidity_offset_history.time_decay_data(half_lives);
+
+               debug_assert!(*self.min_liquidity_offset_msat <= self.capacity_msat);
+               self.min_liquidity_offset_history.track_datapoint(
+                       // Ensure the bucket index we pass is in the range [0, 7], even if the liquidity offset
+                       // is zero or the channel's capacity, though the second should generally never happen.
+                       (self.min_liquidity_offset_msat.saturating_sub(1) * 8 / self.capacity_msat)
+                       .try_into().unwrap_or(32)); // 32 is bogus for 8 buckets, and will be ignored
+               debug_assert!(*self.max_liquidity_offset_msat <= self.capacity_msat);
+               self.max_liquidity_offset_history.track_datapoint(
+                       // Ensure the bucket index we pass is in the range [0, 7], even if the liquidity offset
+                       // is zero or the channel's capacity, though the second should generally never happen.
+                       (self.max_liquidity_offset_msat.saturating_sub(1) * 8 / self.capacity_msat)
+                       .try_into().unwrap_or(32)); // 32 is bogus for 8 buckets, and will be ignored
+       }
+
        /// Adjusts the lower bound of the channel liquidity balance in this direction.
        fn set_min_liquidity_msat(&mut self, amount_msat: u64) {
                *self.min_liquidity_offset_msat = amount_msat;
@@ -694,6 +1075,7 @@ impl<L: DerefMut<Target = u64>, T: Time, U: DerefMut<Target = T>> DirectedChanne
                } else {
                        self.decayed_offset_msat(*self.max_liquidity_offset_msat)
                };
+               self.update_history_buckets();
                *self.last_updated = self.now;
        }
 
@@ -705,6 +1087,7 @@ impl<L: DerefMut<Target = u64>, T: Time, U: DerefMut<Target = T>> DirectedChanne
                } else {
                        self.decayed_offset_msat(*self.min_liquidity_offset_msat)
                };
+               self.update_history_buckets();
                *self.last_updated = self.now;
        }
 }
@@ -713,20 +1096,24 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> Score for Probabilis
        fn channel_penalty_msat(
                &self, short_channel_id: u64, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, usage: ChannelUsage
        ) -> u64 {
-               if self.params.banned_nodes.contains(source) || self.params.banned_nodes.contains(target) {
-                       return u64::max_value();
+               if let Some(penalty) = self.params.manual_node_penalties.get(target) {
+                       return *penalty;
                }
 
+               let base_penalty_msat = self.params.base_penalty_msat.saturating_add(
+                       self.params.base_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat
+                               .saturating_mul(usage.amount_msat) / BASE_AMOUNT_PENALTY_DIVISOR);
+
                let mut anti_probing_penalty_msat = 0;
                match usage.effective_capacity {
                        EffectiveCapacity::ExactLiquidity { liquidity_msat } => {
                                if usage.amount_msat > liquidity_msat {
                                        return u64::max_value();
                                } else {
-                                       return self.params.base_penalty_msat;
+                                       return base_penalty_msat;
                                }
                        },
-                       EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(htlc_maximum_msat) } => {
+                       EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat, htlc_maximum_msat } => {
                                if htlc_maximum_msat >= capacity_msat/2 {
                                        anti_probing_penalty_msat = self.params.anti_probing_penalty_msat;
                                }
@@ -734,21 +1121,20 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> Score for Probabilis
                        _ => {},
                }
 
-               let liquidity_offset_half_life = self.params.liquidity_offset_half_life;
                let amount_msat = usage.amount_msat;
                let capacity_msat = usage.effective_capacity.as_msat()
                        .saturating_sub(usage.inflight_htlc_msat);
                self.channel_liquidities
                        .get(&short_channel_id)
                        .unwrap_or(&ChannelLiquidity::new())
-                       .as_directed(source, target, capacity_msat, liquidity_offset_half_life)
+                       .as_directed(source, target, capacity_msat, &self.params)
                        .penalty_msat(amount_msat, &self.params)
                        .saturating_add(anti_probing_penalty_msat)
+                       .saturating_add(base_penalty_msat)
        }
 
        fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop], short_channel_id: u64) {
                let amount_msat = path.split_last().map(|(hop, _)| hop.fee_msat).unwrap_or(0);
-               let liquidity_offset_half_life = self.params.liquidity_offset_half_life;
                log_trace!(self.logger, "Scoring path through to SCID {} as having failed at {} msat", short_channel_id, amount_msat);
                let network_graph = self.network_graph.read_only();
                for (hop_idx, hop) in path.iter().enumerate() {
@@ -757,37 +1143,37 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> Score for Probabilis
                                .get(&hop.short_channel_id)
                                .and_then(|channel| channel.as_directed_to(&target));
 
-                       if hop.short_channel_id == short_channel_id && hop_idx == 0 {
+                       let at_failed_channel = hop.short_channel_id == short_channel_id;
+                       if at_failed_channel && hop_idx == 0 {
                                log_warn!(self.logger, "Payment failed at the first hop - we do not attempt to learn channel info in such cases as we can directly observe local state.\n\tBecause we know the local state, we should generally not see failures here - this may be an indication that your channel peer on channel {} is broken and you may wish to close the channel.", hop.short_channel_id);
                        }
 
                        // Only score announced channels.
                        if let Some((channel, source)) = channel_directed_from_source {
                                let capacity_msat = channel.effective_capacity().as_msat();
-                               if hop.short_channel_id == short_channel_id {
+                               if at_failed_channel {
                                        self.channel_liquidities
                                                .entry(hop.short_channel_id)
                                                .or_insert_with(ChannelLiquidity::new)
-                                               .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat, liquidity_offset_half_life)
+                                               .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat, &self.params)
                                                .failed_at_channel(amount_msat, format_args!("SCID {}, towards {:?}", hop.short_channel_id, target), &self.logger);
-                                       break;
+                               } else {
+                                       self.channel_liquidities
+                                               .entry(hop.short_channel_id)
+                                               .or_insert_with(ChannelLiquidity::new)
+                                               .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat, &self.params)
+                                               .failed_downstream(amount_msat, format_args!("SCID {}, towards {:?}", hop.short_channel_id, target), &self.logger);
                                }
-
-                               self.channel_liquidities
-                                       .entry(hop.short_channel_id)
-                                       .or_insert_with(ChannelLiquidity::new)
-                                       .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat, liquidity_offset_half_life)
-                                       .failed_downstream(amount_msat, format_args!("SCID {}, towards {:?}", hop.short_channel_id, target), &self.logger);
                        } else {
                                log_debug!(self.logger, "Not able to penalize channel with SCID {} as we do not have graph info for it (likely a route-hint last-hop).",
                                        hop.short_channel_id);
                        }
+                       if at_failed_channel { break; }
                }
        }
 
        fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop]) {
                let amount_msat = path.split_last().map(|(hop, _)| hop.fee_msat).unwrap_or(0);
-               let liquidity_offset_half_life = self.params.liquidity_offset_half_life;
                log_trace!(self.logger, "Scoring path through SCID {} as having succeeded at {} msat.",
                        path.split_last().map(|(hop, _)| hop.short_channel_id).unwrap_or(0), amount_msat);
                let network_graph = self.network_graph.read_only();
@@ -803,7 +1189,7 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> Score for Probabilis
                                self.channel_liquidities
                                        .entry(hop.short_channel_id)
                                        .or_insert_with(ChannelLiquidity::new)
-                                       .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat, liquidity_offset_half_life)
+                                       .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat, &self.params)
                                        .successful(amount_msat, format_args!("SCID {}, towards {:?}", hop.short_channel_id, target), &self.logger);
                        } else {
                                log_debug!(self.logger, "Not able to learn for channel with SCID {} as we do not have graph info for it (likely a route-hint last-hop).",
@@ -811,6 +1197,14 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> Score for Probabilis
                        }
                }
        }
+
+       fn probe_failed(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop], short_channel_id: u64) {
+               self.payment_path_failed(path, short_channel_id)
+       }
+
+       fn probe_successful(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop]) {
+               self.payment_path_failed(path, u64::max_value())
+       }
 }
 
 mod approx {
@@ -1159,7 +1553,9 @@ impl<T: Time> Writeable for ChannelLiquidity<T> {
                let duration_since_epoch = T::duration_since_epoch() - self.last_updated.elapsed();
                write_tlv_fields!(w, {
                        (0, self.min_liquidity_offset_msat, required),
+                       (1, Some(self.min_liquidity_offset_history), option),
                        (2, self.max_liquidity_offset_msat, required),
+                       (3, Some(self.max_liquidity_offset_history), option),
                        (4, duration_since_epoch, required),
                });
                Ok(())
@@ -1171,33 +1567,52 @@ impl<T: Time> Readable for ChannelLiquidity<T> {
        fn read<R: Read>(r: &mut R) -> Result<Self, DecodeError> {
                let mut min_liquidity_offset_msat = 0;
                let mut max_liquidity_offset_msat = 0;
+               let mut min_liquidity_offset_history = Some(HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new());
+               let mut max_liquidity_offset_history = Some(HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new());
                let mut duration_since_epoch = Duration::from_secs(0);
                read_tlv_fields!(r, {
                        (0, min_liquidity_offset_msat, required),
+                       (1, min_liquidity_offset_history, option),
                        (2, max_liquidity_offset_msat, required),
+                       (3, max_liquidity_offset_history, option),
                        (4, duration_since_epoch, required),
                });
+               // On rust prior to 1.60 `Instant::duration_since` will panic if time goes backwards.
+               // We write `last_updated` as wallclock time even though its ultimately an `Instant` (which
+               // is a time from a monotonic clock usually represented as an offset against boot time).
+               // Thus, we have to construct an `Instant` by subtracting the difference in wallclock time
+               // from the one that was written. However, because `Instant` can panic if we construct one
+               // in the future, we must handle wallclock time jumping backwards, which we do by simply
+               // using `Instant::now()` in that case.
+               let wall_clock_now = T::duration_since_epoch();
+               let now = T::now();
+               let last_updated = if wall_clock_now > duration_since_epoch {
+                       now - (wall_clock_now - duration_since_epoch)
+               } else { now };
                Ok(Self {
                        min_liquidity_offset_msat,
                        max_liquidity_offset_msat,
-                       last_updated: T::now() - (T::duration_since_epoch() - duration_since_epoch),
+                       min_liquidity_offset_history: min_liquidity_offset_history.unwrap(),
+                       max_liquidity_offset_history: max_liquidity_offset_history.unwrap(),
+                       last_updated,
                })
        }
 }
 
 #[cfg(test)]
 mod tests {
-       use super::{ChannelLiquidity, ProbabilisticScoringParameters, ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime};
-       use util::time::Time;
-       use util::time::tests::SinceEpoch;
-
-       use ln::features::{ChannelFeatures, NodeFeatures};
-       use ln::msgs::{ChannelAnnouncement, ChannelUpdate, OptionalField, UnsignedChannelAnnouncement, UnsignedChannelUpdate};
-       use routing::gossip::{EffectiveCapacity, NetworkGraph, NodeId};
-       use routing::router::RouteHop;
-       use routing::scoring::{ChannelUsage, Score};
-       use util::ser::{ReadableArgs, Writeable};
-       use util::test_utils::TestLogger;
+       use super::{ChannelLiquidity, HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, ProbabilisticScoringParameters, ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime};
+       use crate::util::config::UserConfig;
+       use crate::util::time::Time;
+       use crate::util::time::tests::SinceEpoch;
+
+       use crate::ln::channelmanager;
+       use crate::ln::msgs::{ChannelAnnouncement, ChannelUpdate, UnsignedChannelAnnouncement, UnsignedChannelUpdate};
+       use crate::routing::gossip::{EffectiveCapacity, NetworkGraph, NodeId};
+       use crate::routing::router::RouteHop;
+       use crate::routing::scoring::{ChannelUsage, Score};
+       use crate::util::ser::{ReadableArgs, Writeable};
+       use crate::util::test_utils::TestLogger;
 
        use bitcoin::blockdata::constants::genesis_block;
        use bitcoin::hashes::Hash;
@@ -1205,7 +1620,7 @@ mod tests {
        use bitcoin::network::constants::Network;
        use bitcoin::secp256k1::{PublicKey, Secp256k1, SecretKey};
        use core::time::Duration;
-       use io;
+       use crate::io;
 
        fn source_privkey() -> SecretKey {
                SecretKey::from_slice(&[42; 32]).unwrap()
@@ -1282,7 +1697,7 @@ mod tests {
                let node_2_secret = &SecretKey::from_slice(&[40; 32]).unwrap();
                let secp_ctx = Secp256k1::new();
                let unsigned_announcement = UnsignedChannelAnnouncement {
-                       features: ChannelFeatures::known(),
+                       features: channelmanager::provided_channel_features(&UserConfig::default()),
                        chain_hash: genesis_hash,
                        short_channel_id,
                        node_id_1: PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &node_1_key),
@@ -1299,7 +1714,7 @@ mod tests {
                        bitcoin_signature_2: secp_ctx.sign_ecdsa(&msghash, &node_2_secret),
                        contents: unsigned_announcement,
                };
-               let chain_source: Option<&::util::test_utils::TestChainSource> = None;
+               let chain_source: Option<&crate::util::test_utils::TestChainSource> = None;
                network_graph.update_channel_from_announcement(
                        &signed_announcement, &chain_source).unwrap();
                update_channel(network_graph, short_channel_id, node_1_key, 0);
@@ -1319,7 +1734,7 @@ mod tests {
                        flags,
                        cltv_expiry_delta: 18,
                        htlc_minimum_msat: 0,
-                       htlc_maximum_msat: OptionalField::Present(1_000),
+                       htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000,
                        fee_base_msat: 1,
                        fee_proportional_millionths: 0,
                        excess_data: Vec::new(),
@@ -1332,32 +1747,23 @@ mod tests {
                network_graph.update_channel(&signed_update).unwrap();
        }
 
+       fn path_hop(pubkey: PublicKey, short_channel_id: u64, fee_msat: u64) -> RouteHop {
+               let config = UserConfig::default();
+               RouteHop {
+                       pubkey,
+                       node_features: channelmanager::provided_node_features(&config),
+                       short_channel_id,
+                       channel_features: channelmanager::provided_channel_features(&config),
+                       fee_msat,
+                       cltv_expiry_delta: 18,
+               }
+       }
+
        fn payment_path_for_amount(amount_msat: u64) -> Vec<RouteHop> {
                vec![
-                       RouteHop {
-                               pubkey: source_pubkey(),
-                               node_features: NodeFeatures::known(),
-                               short_channel_id: 41,
-                               channel_features: ChannelFeatures::known(),
-                               fee_msat: 1,
-                               cltv_expiry_delta: 18,
-                       },
-                       RouteHop {
-                               pubkey: target_pubkey(),
-                               node_features: NodeFeatures::known(),
-                               short_channel_id: 42,
-                               channel_features: ChannelFeatures::known(),
-                               fee_msat: 2,
-                               cltv_expiry_delta: 18,
-                       },
-                       RouteHop {
-                               pubkey: recipient_pubkey(),
-                               node_features: NodeFeatures::known(),
-                               short_channel_id: 43,
-                               channel_features: ChannelFeatures::known(),
-                               fee_msat: amount_msat,
-                               cltv_expiry_delta: 18,
-                       },
+                       path_hop(source_pubkey(), 41, 1),
+                       path_hop(target_pubkey(), 42, 2),
+                       path_hop(recipient_pubkey(), 43, amount_msat),
                ]
        }
 
@@ -1370,11 +1776,15 @@ mod tests {
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph, &logger)
                        .with_channel(42,
                                ChannelLiquidity {
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 700, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 100, last_updated
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 700, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 100, last_updated,
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
+                                       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
                                })
                        .with_channel(43,
                                ChannelLiquidity {
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 700, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 100, last_updated
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 700, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 100, last_updated,
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
+                                       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
                                });
                let source = source_node_id();
                let target = target_node_id();
@@ -1384,54 +1794,53 @@ mod tests {
 
                // Update minimum liquidity.
 
-               let liquidity_offset_half_life = scorer.params.liquidity_offset_half_life;
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 100);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 300);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 700);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 900);
 
                scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life)
+                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000, &scorer.params)
                        .set_min_liquidity_msat(200);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 200);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 300);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 700);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 800);
 
                // Update maximum liquidity.
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&43).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &recipient, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &recipient, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 700);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 900);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&43).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&recipient, &target, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&recipient, &target, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 100);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 300);
 
                scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&43).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed_mut(&target, &recipient, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life)
+                       .as_directed_mut(&target, &recipient, 1_000, &scorer.params)
                        .set_max_liquidity_msat(200);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&43).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &recipient, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &recipient, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 200);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&43).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&recipient, &target, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&recipient, &target, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 800);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 1000);
        }
@@ -1445,51 +1854,52 @@ mod tests {
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph, &logger)
                        .with_channel(42,
                                ChannelLiquidity {
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 200, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 400, last_updated
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 200, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 400, last_updated,
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
+                                       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
                                });
                let source = source_node_id();
                let target = target_node_id();
                assert!(source > target);
 
                // Check initial bounds.
-               let liquidity_offset_half_life = scorer.params.liquidity_offset_half_life;
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 400);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 800);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 200);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 600);
 
                // Reset from source to target.
                scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life)
+                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000, &scorer.params)
                        .set_min_liquidity_msat(900);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 900);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 1_000);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 100);
 
                // Reset from target to source.
                scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed_mut(&target, &source, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life)
+                       .as_directed_mut(&target, &source, 1_000, &scorer.params)
                        .set_min_liquidity_msat(400);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 600);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 400);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 1_000);
        }
@@ -1503,51 +1913,52 @@ mod tests {
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph, &logger)
                        .with_channel(42,
                                ChannelLiquidity {
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 200, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 400, last_updated
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 200, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 400, last_updated,
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
+                                       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
                                });
                let source = source_node_id();
                let target = target_node_id();
                assert!(source > target);
 
                // Check initial bounds.
-               let liquidity_offset_half_life = scorer.params.liquidity_offset_half_life;
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 400);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 800);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 200);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 600);
 
                // Reset from source to target.
                scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life)
+                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000, &scorer.params)
                        .set_max_liquidity_msat(300);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 300);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 700);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 1_000);
 
                // Reset from target to source.
                scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed_mut(&target, &source, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life)
+                       .as_directed_mut(&target, &source, 1_000, &scorer.params)
                        .set_max_liquidity_msat(600);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 400);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 1_000);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, liquidity_offset_half_life);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, &scorer.params);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 600);
        }
@@ -1567,20 +1978,20 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 1_024,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 10_240, ..usage };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 102_400, ..usage };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 47);
-               let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_024_000, ..usage };
+               let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_023_999, ..usage };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 2_000);
 
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 128,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 58);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 256, ..usage };
@@ -1604,12 +2015,15 @@ mod tests {
                let network_graph = network_graph(&logger);
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
+                       considered_impossible_penalty_msat: u64::max_value(),
                        ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph, &logger)
                        .with_channel(42,
                                ChannelLiquidity {
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 40, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 40, last_updated
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 40, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 40, last_updated,
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
+                                       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
                                });
                let source = source_node_id();
                let target = target_node_id();
@@ -1617,7 +2031,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 39,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 100, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 100, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 50, ..usage };
@@ -1641,7 +2055,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 500,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                let failed_path = payment_path_for_amount(500);
                let successful_path = payment_path_for_amount(200);
@@ -1671,7 +2085,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 250,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 128);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 500, ..usage };
@@ -1695,6 +2109,7 @@ mod tests {
                let network_graph = network_graph(&logger);
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
+                       considered_impossible_penalty_msat: u64::max_value(),
                        ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph, &logger);
@@ -1705,7 +2120,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 250,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 128);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 500, ..usage };
@@ -1723,6 +2138,65 @@ mod tests {
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), u64::max_value());
        }
 
+       #[test]
+       fn ignores_channels_after_removed_failed_channel() {
+               // Previously, if we'd tried to send over a channel which was removed from the network
+               // graph before we call `payment_path_failed` (which is the default if the we get a "no
+               // such channel" error in the `InvoicePayer`), we would call `failed_downstream` on all
+               // channels in the route, even ones which they payment never reached. This tests to ensure
+               // we do not score such channels.
+               let secp_ctx = Secp256k1::new();
+               let logger = TestLogger::new();
+               let genesis_hash = genesis_block(Network::Testnet).header.block_hash();
+               let mut network_graph = NetworkGraph::new(genesis_hash, &logger);
+               let secret_a = SecretKey::from_slice(&[42; 32]).unwrap();
+               let secret_b = SecretKey::from_slice(&[43; 32]).unwrap();
+               let secret_c = SecretKey::from_slice(&[44; 32]).unwrap();
+               let secret_d = SecretKey::from_slice(&[45; 32]).unwrap();
+               add_channel(&mut network_graph, 42, secret_a, secret_b);
+               // Don't add the channel from B -> C.
+               add_channel(&mut network_graph, 44, secret_c, secret_d);
+
+               let pub_a = PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &secret_a);
+               let pub_b = PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &secret_b);
+               let pub_c = PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &secret_c);
+               let pub_d = PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &secret_d);
+
+               let path = vec![
+                       path_hop(pub_b, 42, 1),
+                       path_hop(pub_c, 43, 2),
+                       path_hop(pub_d, 44, 100),
+               ];
+
+               let node_a = NodeId::from_pubkey(&pub_a);
+               let node_b = NodeId::from_pubkey(&pub_b);
+               let node_c = NodeId::from_pubkey(&pub_c);
+               let node_d = NodeId::from_pubkey(&pub_d);
+
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
+               };
+               let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph, &logger);
+
+               let usage = ChannelUsage {
+                       amount_msat: 250,
+                       inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &node_a, &node_b, usage), 128);
+               // Note that a default liquidity bound is used for B -> C as no channel exists
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(43, &node_b, &node_c, usage), 128);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(44, &node_c, &node_d, usage), 128);
+
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&path.iter().collect::<Vec<_>>(), 43);
+
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &node_a, &node_b, usage), 80);
+               // Note that a default liquidity bound is used for B -> C as no channel exists
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(43, &node_b, &node_c, usage), 128);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(44, &node_c, &node_d, usage), 128);
+       }
+
        #[test]
        fn reduces_liquidity_upper_bound_along_path_on_success() {
                let logger = TestLogger::new();
@@ -1739,7 +2213,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 250,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                let path = payment_path_for_amount(500);
 
@@ -1761,6 +2235,7 @@ mod tests {
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
                        liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(10),
+                       considered_impossible_penalty_msat: u64::max_value(),
                        ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph, &logger);
@@ -1770,10 +2245,10 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 0,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_024 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 0);
-               let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_024, ..usage };
+               let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_023, ..usage };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 2_000);
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(768).iter().collect::<Vec<_>>(), 42);
@@ -1817,20 +2292,20 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_023, ..usage };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 2_000);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_024, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 2_000);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), u64::max_value());
 
                // Fully decay liquidity upper bound.
                SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 0, ..usage };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_024, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 2_000);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), u64::max_value());
 
                SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 0, ..usage };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_024, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 2_000);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), u64::max_value());
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -1848,7 +2323,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 256,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 125);
 
@@ -1879,7 +2354,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
 
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 300);
@@ -1915,6 +2390,7 @@ mod tests {
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
                        liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(10),
+                       considered_impossible_penalty_msat: u64::max_value(),
                        ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params.clone(), &network_graph, &logger);
@@ -1923,7 +2399,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 500,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(500).iter().collect::<Vec<_>>(), 42);
@@ -1951,6 +2427,7 @@ mod tests {
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
                        liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(10),
+                       considered_impossible_penalty_msat: u64::max_value(),
                        ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params.clone(), &network_graph, &logger);
@@ -1959,7 +2436,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 500,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(500).iter().collect::<Vec<_>>(), 42);
@@ -1996,49 +2473,49 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 100_000_000,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 3613);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 4375);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1977);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 2739);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 2_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 2_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1474);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 2236);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 3_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 3_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1223);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1983);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 4_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 4_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 877);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1637);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 5_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 5_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 845);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1606);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 6_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 6_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 500);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1331);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 7_450_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 7_450_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 500);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1387);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 7_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 7_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 500);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1379);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 8_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 8_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 500);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1363);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 9_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 9_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 500);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1355);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -2050,7 +2527,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 128,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
 
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
@@ -2062,10 +2539,19 @@ mod tests {
 
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
                        base_penalty_msat: 500, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
-                       anti_probing_penalty_msat: 0, ..Default::default()
+                       anti_probing_penalty_msat: 0, ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph, &logger);
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 558);
+
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
+                       base_penalty_msat: 500, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
+                       base_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: (1 << 30),
+                       anti_probing_penalty_msat: 0, ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
+               };
+
+               let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph, &logger);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 558 + 128);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -2077,12 +2563,12 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512_000,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
 
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
-                       amount_penalty_multiplier_msat: 0,
+                       liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: 0,
                        ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph, &logger);
@@ -2090,7 +2576,7 @@ mod tests {
 
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
-                       amount_penalty_multiplier_msat: 256,
+                       liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: 256,
                        ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph, &logger);
@@ -2121,7 +2607,10 @@ mod tests {
        fn accounts_for_inflight_htlc_usage() {
                let logger = TestLogger::new();
                let network_graph = network_graph(&logger);
-               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters::default();
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
+                       considered_impossible_penalty_msat: u64::max_value(),
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
+               };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph, &logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
                let target = target_node_id();
@@ -2129,7 +2618,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 750,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_ne!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), u64::max_value());
 
@@ -2161,6 +2650,42 @@ mod tests {
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), u64::max_value());
        }
 
+       #[test]
+       fn remembers_historical_failures() {
+               let logger = TestLogger::new();
+               let network_graph = network_graph(&logger);
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
+                       historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1024,
+                       historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: 1024,
+                       historical_no_updates_half_life: Duration::from_secs(10),
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
+               };
+               let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph, &logger);
+               let source = source_node_id();
+               let target = target_node_id();
+
+               let usage = ChannelUsage {
+                       amount_msat: 100,
+                       inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_024 },
+               };
+               // With no historical data the normal liquidity penalty calculation is used.
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 47);
+
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(1).iter().collect::<Vec<_>>(), 42);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 2048);
+
+               // Even after we tell the scorer we definitely have enough available liquidity, it will
+               // still remember that there was some failure in the past, and assign a non-0 penalty.
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(1000).iter().collect::<Vec<_>>(), 43);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 198);
+
+               // Advance the time forward 16 half-lives (which the docs claim will ensure all data is
+               // gone), and check that we're back to where we started.
+               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10 * 16));
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 47);
+       }
+
        #[test]
        fn adds_anti_probing_penalty() {
                let logger = TestLogger::new();
@@ -2177,7 +2702,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512_000,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 0);
 
@@ -2185,7 +2710,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512_000,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_024_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_024_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 500);
 
@@ -2193,7 +2718,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512_000,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(512_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 512_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 500);
 
@@ -2201,7 +2726,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512_000,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(511_999) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 511_999 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 0);
        }