f - Pass sender PublicKey by reference
[rust-lightning] / lightning / src / routing / scoring.rs
index eb522a48ae59cf1713249e87c43841e0f3d14262..51397cdae079cbc4dd4cbaf5121d92626db21ec2 100644 (file)
@@ -9,8 +9,8 @@
 
 //! Utilities for scoring payment channels.
 //!
-//! [`Scorer`] may be given to [`find_route`] to score payment channels during path finding when a
-//! custom [`Score`] implementation is not needed.
+//! [`ProbabilisticScorer`] may be given to [`find_route`] to score payment channels during path
+//! finding when a custom [`Score`] implementation is not needed.
 //!
 //! # Example
 //!
@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@
 //! #
 //! # use lightning::routing::network_graph::NetworkGraph;
 //! # use lightning::routing::router::{RouteParameters, find_route};
-//! # use lightning::routing::scoring::{Scorer, ScoringParameters};
+//! # use lightning::routing::scoring::{ProbabilisticScorer, ProbabilisticScoringParameters, Scorer, ScoringParameters};
 //! # use lightning::util::logger::{Logger, Record};
 //! # use secp256k1::key::PublicKey;
 //! #
 //! # impl Logger for FakeLogger {
 //! #     fn log(&self, record: &Record) { unimplemented!() }
 //! # }
-//! # fn find_scored_route(payer: PublicKey, params: RouteParameters, network_graph: NetworkGraph) {
+//! # fn find_scored_route(payer: PublicKey, route_params: RouteParameters, network_graph: NetworkGraph) {
 //! # let logger = FakeLogger {};
 //! #
 //! // Use the default channel penalties.
-//! let scorer = Scorer::default();
+//! let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters::default();
+//! let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &payer, &network_graph);
 //!
 //! // Or use custom channel penalties.
-//! let scorer = Scorer::new(ScoringParameters {
-//!     base_penalty_msat: 1000,
-//!     failure_penalty_msat: 2 * 1024 * 1000,
-//!     ..ScoringParameters::default()
-//! });
+//! let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
+//!     liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 2 * 1000,
+//!     ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::default()
+//! };
+//! let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &payer, &network_graph);
 //!
-//! let route = find_route(&payer, &params, &network_graph, None, &logger, &scorer);
+//! let route = find_route(&payer, &route_params, &network_graph, None, &logger, &scorer);
 //! # }
 //! ```
 //!
 //! # Note
 //!
-//! If persisting [`Scorer`], it must be restored using the same [`Time`] parameterization. Using a
-//! different type results in undefined behavior. Specifically, persisting when built with feature
-//! `no-std` and restoring without it, or vice versa, uses different types and thus is undefined.
+//! Persisting when built with feature `no-std` and restoring without it, or vice versa, uses
+//! different types and thus is undefined.
 //!
 //! [`find_route`]: crate::routing::router::find_route
 
+use bitcoin::secp256k1::key::PublicKey;
+
 use ln::msgs::DecodeError;
-use routing::network_graph::NodeId;
+use routing::network_graph::{EffectiveCapacity, NetworkGraph, NodeId};
 use routing::router::RouteHop;
-use util::ser::{Readable, Writeable, Writer};
+use util::ser::{Readable, ReadableArgs, Writeable, Writer};
 
 use prelude::*;
 use core::cell::{RefCell, RefMut};
-use core::ops::{DerefMut, Sub};
+use core::ops::{Deref, DerefMut};
 use core::time::Duration;
-use io::{self, Read}; use sync::{Mutex, MutexGuard};
+use io::{self, Read};
+use sync::{Mutex, MutexGuard};
 
 /// We define Score ever-so-slightly differently based on whether we are being built for C bindings
 /// or not. For users, `LockableScore` must somehow be writeable to disk. For Rust users, this is
@@ -82,29 +85,31 @@ pub trait Score $(: $supertrait)* {
        /// Returns the fee in msats willing to be paid to avoid routing `send_amt_msat` through the
        /// given channel in the direction from `source` to `target`.
        ///
-       /// The channel's capacity (less any other MPP parts which are also being considered for use in
-       /// the same payment) is given by `channel_capacity_msat`. It may be guessed from various
-       /// sources or assumed from no data at all.
-       ///
-       /// For hints provided in the invoice, we assume the channel has sufficient capacity to accept
-       /// the invoice's full amount, and provide a `channel_capacity_msat` of `None`. In all other
-       /// cases it is set to `Some`, even if we're guessing at the channel value.
-       ///
-       /// Your code should be overflow-safe through a `channel_capacity_msat` of 21 million BTC.
-       fn channel_penalty_msat(&self, short_channel_id: u64, send_amt_msat: u64, channel_capacity_msat: Option<u64>, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId) -> u64;
+       /// The channel's capacity (less any other MPP parts that are also being considered for use in
+       /// the same payment) is given by `capacity_msat`. It may be determined from various sources
+       /// such as a chain data, network gossip, or invoice hints, the latter indicating sufficient
+       /// capacity (i.e., near [`u64::max_value`]). Thus, implementations should be overflow-safe.
+       fn channel_penalty_msat(&self, short_channel_id: u64, send_amt_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId) -> u64;
 
        /// Handles updating channel penalties after failing to route through a channel.
        fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop], short_channel_id: u64);
+
+       /// Handles updating channel penalties after successfully routing along a path.
+       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop]);
 }
 
 impl<S: Score, T: DerefMut<Target=S> $(+ $supertrait)*> Score for T {
-       fn channel_penalty_msat(&self, short_channel_id: u64, send_amt_msat: u64, channel_capacity_msat: Option<u64>, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId) -> u64 {
-               self.deref().channel_penalty_msat(short_channel_id, send_amt_msat, channel_capacity_msat, source, target)
+       fn channel_penalty_msat(&self, short_channel_id: u64, send_amt_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId) -> u64 {
+               self.deref().channel_penalty_msat(short_channel_id, send_amt_msat, capacity_msat, source, target)
        }
 
        fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop], short_channel_id: u64) {
                self.deref_mut().payment_path_failed(path, short_channel_id)
        }
+
+       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop]) {
+               self.deref_mut().payment_path_successful(path)
+       }
 }
 } }
 
@@ -161,6 +166,14 @@ impl<'a, T: Score + 'a> LockableScore<'a> for MultiThreadedLockableScore<T> {
        }
 }
 
+#[cfg(c_bindings)]
+impl<T: Score> MultiThreadedLockableScore<T> {
+       /// Creates a new [`MultiThreadedLockableScore`] given an underlying [`Score`].
+       pub fn new(score: T) -> Self {
+               MultiThreadedLockableScore { score: Mutex::new(score) }
+       }
+}
+
 #[cfg(c_bindings)]
 /// (C-not exported)
 impl<'a, T: Writeable> Writeable for RefMut<'a, T> {
@@ -185,23 +198,33 @@ impl<'a, S: Writeable> Writeable for MutexGuard<'a, S> {
 /// See [module-level documentation] for usage.
 ///
 /// [module-level documentation]: crate::routing::scoring
-pub type Scorer = ScorerUsingTime::<DefaultTime>;
-
-/// Time used by [`Scorer`].
 #[cfg(not(feature = "no-std"))]
-pub type DefaultTime = std::time::Instant;
-
-/// Time used by [`Scorer`].
+pub type Scorer = ScorerUsingTime::<std::time::Instant>;
+/// [`Score`] implementation that provides reasonable default behavior.
+///
+/// Used to apply a fixed penalty to each channel, thus avoiding long paths when shorter paths with
+/// slightly higher fees are available. Will further penalize channels that fail to relay payments.
+///
+/// See [module-level documentation] for usage and [`ScoringParameters`] for customization.
+///
+/// [module-level documentation]: crate::routing::scoring
 #[cfg(feature = "no-std")]
-pub type DefaultTime = Eternity;
+pub type Scorer = ScorerUsingTime::<time::Eternity>;
 
-/// [`Score`] implementation parameterized by [`Time`].
+// Note that ideally we'd hide ScorerUsingTime from public view by sealing it as well, but rustdoc
+// doesn't handle this well - instead exposing a `Scorer` which has no trait implementation(s) or
+// methods at all.
+
+/// [`Score`] implementation.
 ///
 /// See [`Scorer`] for details.
 ///
 /// # Note
 ///
-/// Mixing [`Time`] types between serialization and deserialization results in undefined behavior.
+/// Mixing the `no-std` feature between serialization and deserialization results in undefined
+/// behavior.
+///
+/// (C-not exported) generally all users should use the [`Scorer`] type alias.
 pub struct ScorerUsingTime<T: Time> {
        params: ScoringParameters,
        // TODO: Remove entries of closed channels.
@@ -218,7 +241,7 @@ pub struct ScoringParameters {
        /// A penalty in msats to apply to a channel upon failing to relay a payment.
        ///
        /// This accumulates for each failure but may be reduced over time based on
-       /// [`failure_penalty_half_life`].
+       /// [`failure_penalty_half_life`] or when successfully routing through a channel.
        ///
        /// Default value: 1,024,000 msat
        ///
@@ -245,10 +268,12 @@ pub struct ScoringParameters {
        /// The time required to elapse before any accumulated [`failure_penalty_msat`] penalties are
        /// cut in half.
        ///
+       /// Successfully routing through a channel will immediately cut the penalty in half as well.
+       ///
        /// # Note
        ///
-       /// When time is an [`Eternity`], as is default when enabling feature `no-std`, it will never
-       /// elapse. Therefore, this penalty will never decay.
+       /// When built with the `no-std` feature, time will never elapse. Therefore, this penalty will
+       /// never decay.
        ///
        /// [`failure_penalty_msat`]: Self::failure_penalty_msat
        pub failure_penalty_half_life: Duration,
@@ -266,25 +291,12 @@ impl_writeable_tlv_based!(ScoringParameters, {
 ///
 /// Penalties decay over time, though accumulate as more failures occur.
 struct ChannelFailure<T: Time> {
-       /// Accumulated penalty in msats for the channel as of `last_failed`.
+       /// Accumulated penalty in msats for the channel as of `last_updated`.
        undecayed_penalty_msat: u64,
 
-       /// Last time the channel failed. Used to decay `undecayed_penalty_msat`.
-       last_failed: T,
-}
-
-/// A measurement of time.
-pub trait Time: Sub<Duration, Output = Self> where Self: Sized {
-       /// Returns an instance corresponding to the current moment.
-       fn now() -> Self;
-
-       /// Returns the amount of time elapsed since `self` was created.
-       fn elapsed(&self) -> Duration;
-
-       /// Returns the amount of time passed since the beginning of [`Time`].
-       ///
-       /// Used during (de-)serialization.
-       fn duration_since_epoch() -> Duration;
+       /// Last time the channel either failed to route or successfully routed a payment. Used to decay
+       /// `undecayed_penalty_msat`.
+       last_updated: T,
 }
 
 impl<T: Time> ScorerUsingTime<T> {
@@ -313,21 +325,25 @@ impl<T: Time> ChannelFailure<T> {
        fn new(failure_penalty_msat: u64) -> Self {
                Self {
                        undecayed_penalty_msat: failure_penalty_msat,
-                       last_failed: T::now(),
+                       last_updated: T::now(),
                }
        }
 
        fn add_penalty(&mut self, failure_penalty_msat: u64, half_life: Duration) {
                self.undecayed_penalty_msat = self.decayed_penalty_msat(half_life) + failure_penalty_msat;
-               self.last_failed = T::now();
+               self.last_updated = T::now();
+       }
+
+       fn reduce_penalty(&mut self, half_life: Duration) {
+               self.undecayed_penalty_msat = self.decayed_penalty_msat(half_life) >> 1;
+               self.last_updated = T::now();
        }
 
        fn decayed_penalty_msat(&self, half_life: Duration) -> u64 {
-               let decays = self.last_failed.elapsed().as_secs().checked_div(half_life.as_secs());
-               match decays {
-                       Some(decays) => self.undecayed_penalty_msat >> decays,
-                       None => 0,
-               }
+               self.last_updated.elapsed().as_secs()
+                       .checked_div(half_life.as_secs())
+                       .and_then(|decays| self.undecayed_penalty_msat.checked_shr(decays as u32))
+                       .unwrap_or(0)
        }
 }
 
@@ -351,23 +367,19 @@ impl Default for ScoringParameters {
 
 impl<T: Time> Score for ScorerUsingTime<T> {
        fn channel_penalty_msat(
-               &self, short_channel_id: u64, send_amt_msat: u64, chan_capacity_opt: Option<u64>, _source: &NodeId, _target: &NodeId
+               &self, short_channel_id: u64, send_amt_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64, _source: &NodeId, _target: &NodeId
        ) -> u64 {
                let failure_penalty_msat = self.channel_failures
                        .get(&short_channel_id)
                        .map_or(0, |value| value.decayed_penalty_msat(self.params.failure_penalty_half_life));
 
                let mut penalty_msat = self.params.base_penalty_msat + failure_penalty_msat;
-
-               if let Some(chan_capacity_msat) = chan_capacity_opt {
-                       let send_1024ths = send_amt_msat.checked_mul(1024).unwrap_or(u64::max_value()) / chan_capacity_msat;
-
-                       if send_1024ths > self.params.overuse_penalty_start_1024th as u64 {
-                               penalty_msat = penalty_msat.checked_add(
-                                               (send_1024ths - self.params.overuse_penalty_start_1024th as u64)
-                                               .checked_mul(self.params.overuse_penalty_msat_per_1024th).unwrap_or(u64::max_value()))
-                                       .unwrap_or(u64::max_value());
-                       }
+               let send_1024ths = send_amt_msat.checked_mul(1024).unwrap_or(u64::max_value()) / capacity_msat;
+               if send_1024ths > self.params.overuse_penalty_start_1024th as u64 {
+                       penalty_msat = penalty_msat.checked_add(
+                                       (send_1024ths - self.params.overuse_penalty_start_1024th as u64)
+                                       .checked_mul(self.params.overuse_penalty_msat_per_1024th).unwrap_or(u64::max_value()))
+                               .unwrap_or(u64::max_value());
                }
 
                penalty_msat
@@ -381,114 +393,494 @@ impl<T: Time> Score for ScorerUsingTime<T> {
                        .and_modify(|failure| failure.add_penalty(failure_penalty_msat, half_life))
                        .or_insert_with(|| ChannelFailure::new(failure_penalty_msat));
        }
+
+       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop]) {
+               let half_life = self.params.failure_penalty_half_life;
+               for hop in path.iter() {
+                       self.channel_failures
+                               .entry(hop.short_channel_id)
+                               .and_modify(|failure| failure.reduce_penalty(half_life));
+               }
+       }
 }
 
-#[cfg(not(feature = "no-std"))]
-impl Time for std::time::Instant {
-       fn now() -> Self {
-               std::time::Instant::now()
+impl<T: Time> Writeable for ScorerUsingTime<T> {
+       #[inline]
+       fn write<W: Writer>(&self, w: &mut W) -> Result<(), io::Error> {
+               self.params.write(w)?;
+               self.channel_failures.write(w)?;
+               write_tlv_fields!(w, {});
+               Ok(())
        }
+}
 
-       fn duration_since_epoch() -> Duration {
-               use std::time::SystemTime;
-               SystemTime::now().duration_since(SystemTime::UNIX_EPOCH).unwrap()
+impl<T: Time> Readable for ScorerUsingTime<T> {
+       #[inline]
+       fn read<R: Read>(r: &mut R) -> Result<Self, DecodeError> {
+               let res = Ok(Self {
+                       params: Readable::read(r)?,
+                       channel_failures: Readable::read(r)?,
+               });
+               read_tlv_fields!(r, {});
+               res
+       }
+}
+
+impl<T: Time> Writeable for ChannelFailure<T> {
+       #[inline]
+       fn write<W: Writer>(&self, w: &mut W) -> Result<(), io::Error> {
+               let duration_since_epoch = T::duration_since_epoch() - self.last_updated.elapsed();
+               write_tlv_fields!(w, {
+                       (0, self.undecayed_penalty_msat, required),
+                       (2, duration_since_epoch, required),
+               });
+               Ok(())
        }
+}
 
-       fn elapsed(&self) -> Duration {
-               std::time::Instant::elapsed(self)
+impl<T: Time> Readable for ChannelFailure<T> {
+       #[inline]
+       fn read<R: Read>(r: &mut R) -> Result<Self, DecodeError> {
+               let mut undecayed_penalty_msat = 0;
+               let mut duration_since_epoch = Duration::from_secs(0);
+               read_tlv_fields!(r, {
+                       (0, undecayed_penalty_msat, required),
+                       (2, duration_since_epoch, required),
+               });
+               Ok(Self {
+                       undecayed_penalty_msat,
+                       last_updated: T::now() - (T::duration_since_epoch() - duration_since_epoch),
+               })
        }
 }
 
-/// A state in which time has no meaning.
-#[derive(Debug, PartialEq, Eq)]
-pub struct Eternity;
+/// [`Score`] implementation using channel success probability distributions.
+///
+/// Based on *Optimally Reliable & Cheap Payment Flows on the Lightning Network* by Rene Pickhardt
+/// and Stefan Richter [[1]]. Given the uncertainty of channel liquidity balances, probability
+/// distributions are defined based on knowledge learned from successful and unsuccessful attempts.
+/// Then the negative log of the success probability is used to determine the cost of routing a
+/// specific HTLC amount through a channel.
+///
+/// [1]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.05322
+pub struct ProbabilisticScorer<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph>> {
+       params: ProbabilisticScoringParameters,
+       node_id: NodeId,
+       network_graph: G,
+       // TODO: Remove entries of closed channels.
+       channel_liquidities: HashMap<u64, ChannelLiquidity>,
+}
 
-impl Time for Eternity {
-       fn now() -> Self {
-               Self
+/// Parameters for configuring [`ProbabilisticScorer`].
+pub struct ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
+       /// A penalty applied after multiplying by the negative log of channel's success probability for
+       /// a payment.
+       ///
+       /// The success probability is determined by the effective channel capacity, the payment amount,
+       /// and knowledge learned from prior successful and unsuccessful payments.
+       ///
+       /// Default value: 1,000 msat
+       pub liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: u64,
+}
+
+impl_writeable_tlv_based!(ProbabilisticScoringParameters, {
+       (0, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat, required),
+});
+
+/// Accounting for channel liquidity balance uncertainty.
+///
+/// Direction is defined in terms of [`NodeId`] partial ordering, where the source node is the
+/// first node in the ordering of the channel's counterparties. Thus, swapping the two liquidity
+/// offset fields gives the opposite direction.
+struct ChannelLiquidity {
+       min_liquidity_offset_msat: u64,
+       max_liquidity_offset_msat: u64,
+}
+
+/// A view of [`ChannelLiquidity`] in one direction assuming a certain channel capacity.
+struct DirectedChannelLiquidity<L: Deref<Target = u64>> {
+       min_liquidity_offset_msat: L,
+       max_liquidity_offset_msat: L,
+       capacity_msat: u64,
+}
+
+/// The likelihood of an event occurring.
+enum Probability {
+       Zero,
+       One,
+       Ratio { numerator: u64, denominator: u64 },
+}
+
+impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph>> ProbabilisticScorer<G> {
+       /// Creates a new scorer using the given scoring parameters for sending payments from a node
+       /// through a network graph.
+       pub fn new(
+               params: ProbabilisticScoringParameters, node_pubkey: &PublicKey, network_graph: G
+       ) -> Self {
+               Self {
+                       params,
+                       node_id: NodeId::from_pubkey(node_pubkey),
+                       network_graph,
+                       channel_liquidities: HashMap::new(),
+               }
+       }
+
+       #[cfg(test)]
+       fn with_channel(mut self, short_channel_id: u64, liquidity: ChannelLiquidity) -> Self {
+               assert!(self.channel_liquidities.insert(short_channel_id, liquidity).is_none());
+               self
+       }
+}
+
+impl Default for ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
+       fn default() -> Self {
+               Self {
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1000,
+               }
        }
+}
 
-       fn duration_since_epoch() -> Duration {
-               Duration::from_secs(0)
+impl ChannelLiquidity {
+       #[inline]
+       fn new() -> Self {
+               Self {
+                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 0,
+                       max_liquidity_offset_msat: 0,
+               }
        }
 
-       fn elapsed(&self) -> Duration {
-               Duration::from_secs(0)
+       /// Returns a view of the channel liquidity directed from `source` to `target` assuming
+       /// `capacity_msat`.
+       fn as_directed(
+               &self, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, capacity_msat: u64
+       ) -> DirectedChannelLiquidity<&u64> {
+               let (min_liquidity_offset_msat, max_liquidity_offset_msat) = if source < target {
+                       (&self.min_liquidity_offset_msat, &self.max_liquidity_offset_msat)
+               } else {
+                       (&self.max_liquidity_offset_msat, &self.min_liquidity_offset_msat)
+               };
+
+               DirectedChannelLiquidity {
+                       min_liquidity_offset_msat,
+                       max_liquidity_offset_msat,
+                       capacity_msat,
+               }
+       }
+
+       /// Returns a mutable view of the channel liquidity directed from `source` to `target` assuming
+       /// `capacity_msat`.
+       fn as_directed_mut(
+               &mut self, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, capacity_msat: u64
+       ) -> DirectedChannelLiquidity<&mut u64> {
+               let (min_liquidity_offset_msat, max_liquidity_offset_msat) = if source < target {
+                       (&mut self.min_liquidity_offset_msat, &mut self.max_liquidity_offset_msat)
+               } else {
+                       (&mut self.max_liquidity_offset_msat, &mut self.min_liquidity_offset_msat)
+               };
+
+               DirectedChannelLiquidity {
+                       min_liquidity_offset_msat,
+                       max_liquidity_offset_msat,
+                       capacity_msat,
+               }
        }
 }
 
-impl Sub<Duration> for Eternity {
-       type Output = Self;
+impl<L: Deref<Target = u64>> DirectedChannelLiquidity<L> {
+       /// Returns the success probability of routing the given HTLC `amount_msat` through the channel
+       /// in this direction.
+       fn success_probability(&self, amount_msat: u64) -> Probability {
+               let max_liquidity_msat = self.max_liquidity_msat();
+               let min_liquidity_msat = core::cmp::min(self.min_liquidity_msat(), max_liquidity_msat);
+               if amount_msat > max_liquidity_msat {
+                       Probability::Zero
+               } else if amount_msat < min_liquidity_msat {
+                       Probability::One
+               } else {
+                       let numerator = max_liquidity_msat + 1 - amount_msat;
+                       let denominator = max_liquidity_msat + 1 - min_liquidity_msat;
+                       if numerator == denominator {
+                               Probability::One
+                       } else {
+                               Probability::Ratio { numerator, denominator }
+                       }
+               }
+       }
 
-       fn sub(self, _other: Duration) -> Self {
-               self
+       /// Returns the lower bound of the channel liquidity balance in this direction.
+       fn min_liquidity_msat(&self) -> u64 {
+               *self.min_liquidity_offset_msat
+       }
+
+       /// Returns the upper bound of the channel liquidity balance in this direction.
+       fn max_liquidity_msat(&self) -> u64 {
+               self.capacity_msat.checked_sub(*self.max_liquidity_offset_msat).unwrap_or(0)
        }
 }
 
-impl<T: Time> Writeable for ScorerUsingTime<T> {
+impl<L: DerefMut<Target = u64>> DirectedChannelLiquidity<L> {
+       /// Adjusts the channel liquidity balance bounds when failing to route `amount_msat`.
+       fn failed_at_channel(&mut self, amount_msat: u64) {
+               if amount_msat < self.max_liquidity_msat() {
+                       self.set_max_liquidity_msat(amount_msat);
+               }
+       }
+
+       /// Adjusts the channel liquidity balance bounds when failing to route `amount_msat` downstream.
+       fn failed_downstream(&mut self, amount_msat: u64) {
+               if amount_msat > self.min_liquidity_msat() {
+                       self.set_min_liquidity_msat(amount_msat);
+               }
+       }
+
+       /// Adjusts the channel liquidity balance bounds when successfully routing `amount_msat`.
+       fn successful(&mut self, amount_msat: u64) {
+               let max_liquidity_msat = self.max_liquidity_msat().checked_sub(amount_msat).unwrap_or(0);
+               self.set_max_liquidity_msat(max_liquidity_msat);
+       }
+
+       /// Adjusts the lower bound of the channel liquidity balance in this direction.
+       fn set_min_liquidity_msat(&mut self, amount_msat: u64) {
+               *self.min_liquidity_offset_msat = amount_msat;
+
+               if amount_msat > self.max_liquidity_msat() {
+                       *self.max_liquidity_offset_msat = 0;
+               }
+       }
+
+       /// Adjusts the upper bound of the channel liquidity balance in this direction.
+       fn set_max_liquidity_msat(&mut self, amount_msat: u64) {
+               *self.max_liquidity_offset_msat = self.capacity_msat.checked_sub(amount_msat).unwrap_or(0);
+
+               if amount_msat < self.min_liquidity_msat() {
+                       *self.min_liquidity_offset_msat = 0;
+               }
+       }
+}
+
+impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph>> Score for ProbabilisticScorer<G> {
+       fn channel_penalty_msat(
+               &self, short_channel_id: u64, amount_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64, source: &NodeId,
+               target: &NodeId
+       ) -> u64 {
+               if *source == self.node_id || *target == self.node_id {
+                       return 0;
+               }
+
+               let liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat = self.params.liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat;
+               let success_probability = self.channel_liquidities
+                       .get(&short_channel_id)
+                       .unwrap_or(&ChannelLiquidity::new())
+                       .as_directed(source, target, capacity_msat)
+                       .success_probability(amount_msat);
+               match success_probability {
+                       Probability::Zero => u64::max_value(),
+                       Probability::One => 0,
+                       Probability::Ratio { numerator, denominator } => {
+                               let success_probability = numerator as f64 / denominator as f64;
+                               (-(success_probability.log10()) * liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat as f64) as u64
+                       },
+               }
+       }
+
+       fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop], short_channel_id: u64) {
+               let amount_msat = path.split_last().map(|(hop, _)| hop.fee_msat).unwrap_or(0);
+               let network_graph = self.network_graph.read_only();
+               let hop_sources = core::iter::once(self.node_id)
+                       .chain(path.iter().map(|hop| NodeId::from_pubkey(&hop.pubkey)));
+               for (source, hop) in hop_sources.zip(path.iter()) {
+                       let target = NodeId::from_pubkey(&hop.pubkey);
+                       if source == self.node_id || target == self.node_id {
+                               continue;
+                       }
+
+                       let capacity_msat = network_graph.channels()
+                               .get(&hop.short_channel_id)
+                               .and_then(|channel| channel.as_directed_to(&target).map(|d| d.effective_capacity()))
+                               .unwrap_or(EffectiveCapacity::Unknown)
+                               .as_msat();
+
+                       if hop.short_channel_id == short_channel_id {
+                               self.channel_liquidities
+                                       .entry(hop.short_channel_id)
+                                       .or_insert_with(|| ChannelLiquidity::new())
+                                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, capacity_msat)
+                                       .failed_at_channel(amount_msat);
+                               break;
+                       }
+
+                       self.channel_liquidities
+                               .entry(hop.short_channel_id)
+                               .or_insert_with(|| ChannelLiquidity::new())
+                               .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, capacity_msat)
+                               .failed_downstream(amount_msat);
+               }
+       }
+
+       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop]) {
+               let amount_msat = path.split_last().map(|(hop, _)| hop.fee_msat).unwrap_or(0);
+               let network_graph = self.network_graph.read_only();
+               let hop_sources = core::iter::once(self.node_id)
+                       .chain(path.iter().map(|hop| NodeId::from_pubkey(&hop.pubkey)));
+               for (source, hop) in hop_sources.zip(path.iter()) {
+                       let target = NodeId::from_pubkey(&hop.pubkey);
+                       if source == self.node_id || target == self.node_id {
+                               continue;
+                       }
+
+                       let capacity_msat = network_graph.channels()
+                               .get(&hop.short_channel_id)
+                               .and_then(|channel| channel.as_directed_to(&target).map(|d| d.effective_capacity()))
+                               .unwrap_or(EffectiveCapacity::Unknown)
+                               .as_msat();
+
+                       self.channel_liquidities
+                               .entry(hop.short_channel_id)
+                               .or_insert_with(|| ChannelLiquidity::new())
+                               .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, capacity_msat)
+                               .successful(amount_msat);
+               }
+       }
+}
+
+impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph>> Writeable for ProbabilisticScorer<G> {
        #[inline]
        fn write<W: Writer>(&self, w: &mut W) -> Result<(), io::Error> {
                self.params.write(w)?;
-               self.channel_failures.write(w)?;
+               self.node_id.write(w)?;
+               self.channel_liquidities.write(w)?;
                write_tlv_fields!(w, {});
                Ok(())
        }
 }
 
-impl<T: Time> Readable for ScorerUsingTime<T> {
+impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph>> ReadableArgs<G> for ProbabilisticScorer<G> {
        #[inline]
-       fn read<R: Read>(r: &mut R) -> Result<Self, DecodeError> {
+       fn read<R: Read>(r: &mut R, args: G) -> Result<Self, DecodeError> {
                let res = Ok(Self {
                        params: Readable::read(r)?,
-                       channel_failures: Readable::read(r)?,
+                       node_id: Readable::read(r)?,
+                       network_graph: args,
+                       channel_liquidities: Readable::read(r)?,
                });
                read_tlv_fields!(r, {});
                res
        }
 }
 
-impl<T: Time> Writeable for ChannelFailure<T> {
+impl Writeable for ChannelLiquidity {
        #[inline]
        fn write<W: Writer>(&self, w: &mut W) -> Result<(), io::Error> {
-               let duration_since_epoch = T::duration_since_epoch() - self.last_failed.elapsed();
                write_tlv_fields!(w, {
-                       (0, self.undecayed_penalty_msat, required),
-                       (2, duration_since_epoch, required),
+                       (0, self.min_liquidity_offset_msat, required),
+                       (2, self.max_liquidity_offset_msat, required),
                });
                Ok(())
        }
 }
 
-impl<T: Time> Readable for ChannelFailure<T> {
+impl Readable for ChannelLiquidity {
        #[inline]
        fn read<R: Read>(r: &mut R) -> Result<Self, DecodeError> {
-               let mut undecayed_penalty_msat = 0;
-               let mut duration_since_epoch = Duration::from_secs(0);
+               let mut min_liquidity_offset_msat = 0;
+               let mut max_liquidity_offset_msat = 0;
                read_tlv_fields!(r, {
-                       (0, undecayed_penalty_msat, required),
-                       (2, duration_since_epoch, required),
+                       (0, min_liquidity_offset_msat, required),
+                       (2, max_liquidity_offset_msat, required),
                });
                Ok(Self {
-                       undecayed_penalty_msat,
-                       last_failed: T::now() - (T::duration_since_epoch() - duration_since_epoch),
+                       min_liquidity_offset_msat,
+                       max_liquidity_offset_msat
                })
        }
 }
 
+pub(crate) mod time {
+       use core::ops::Sub;
+       use core::time::Duration;
+       /// A measurement of time.
+       pub trait Time: Sub<Duration, Output = Self> where Self: Sized {
+               /// Returns an instance corresponding to the current moment.
+               fn now() -> Self;
+
+               /// Returns the amount of time elapsed since `self` was created.
+               fn elapsed(&self) -> Duration;
+
+               /// Returns the amount of time passed since the beginning of [`Time`].
+               ///
+               /// Used during (de-)serialization.
+               fn duration_since_epoch() -> Duration;
+       }
+
+       /// A state in which time has no meaning.
+       #[derive(Debug, PartialEq, Eq)]
+       pub struct Eternity;
+
+       #[cfg(not(feature = "no-std"))]
+       impl Time for std::time::Instant {
+               fn now() -> Self {
+                       std::time::Instant::now()
+               }
+
+               fn duration_since_epoch() -> Duration {
+                       use std::time::SystemTime;
+                       SystemTime::now().duration_since(SystemTime::UNIX_EPOCH).unwrap()
+               }
+
+               fn elapsed(&self) -> Duration {
+                       std::time::Instant::elapsed(self)
+               }
+       }
+
+       impl Time for Eternity {
+               fn now() -> Self {
+                       Self
+               }
+
+               fn duration_since_epoch() -> Duration {
+                       Duration::from_secs(0)
+               }
+
+               fn elapsed(&self) -> Duration {
+                       Duration::from_secs(0)
+               }
+       }
+
+       impl Sub<Duration> for Eternity {
+               type Output = Self;
+
+               fn sub(self, _other: Duration) -> Self {
+                       self
+               }
+       }
+}
+
+pub(crate) use self::time::Time;
+
 #[cfg(test)]
 mod tests {
-       use super::{Eternity, ScoringParameters, ScorerUsingTime, Time};
+       use super::{ChannelLiquidity, ProbabilisticScoringParameters, ProbabilisticScorer, ScoringParameters, ScorerUsingTime, Time};
+       use super::time::Eternity;
 
+       use ln::features::{ChannelFeatures, NodeFeatures};
+       use ln::msgs::{ChannelAnnouncement, ChannelUpdate, OptionalField, UnsignedChannelAnnouncement, UnsignedChannelUpdate};
        use routing::scoring::Score;
-       use routing::network_graph::NodeId;
+       use routing::network_graph::{NetworkGraph, NodeId};
+       use routing::router::RouteHop;
        use util::ser::{Readable, Writeable};
 
-       use bitcoin::secp256k1::PublicKey;
+       use bitcoin::blockdata::constants::genesis_block;
+       use bitcoin::hashes::Hash;
+       use bitcoin::hashes::sha256d::Hash as Sha256dHash;
+       use bitcoin::network::constants::Network;
+       use bitcoin::secp256k1::{PublicKey, Secp256k1, SecretKey};
        use core::cell::Cell;
        use core::ops::Sub;
        use core::time::Duration;
        use io;
 
+       // `Time` tests
+
        /// Time that can be advanced manually in tests.
        #[derive(Debug, PartialEq, Eq)]
        struct SinceEpoch(Duration);
@@ -550,15 +942,35 @@ mod tests {
                assert_eq!(later - elapsed, now);
        }
 
+       // `Scorer` tests
+
        /// A scorer for testing with time that can be manually advanced.
        type Scorer = ScorerUsingTime::<SinceEpoch>;
 
+       fn source_privkey() -> SecretKey {
+               SecretKey::from_slice(&[42; 32]).unwrap()
+       }
+
+       fn target_privkey() -> SecretKey {
+               SecretKey::from_slice(&[43; 32]).unwrap()
+       }
+
+       fn source_pubkey() -> PublicKey {
+               let secp_ctx = Secp256k1::new();
+               PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &source_privkey())
+       }
+
+       fn target_pubkey() -> PublicKey {
+               let secp_ctx = Secp256k1::new();
+               PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &target_privkey())
+       }
+
        fn source_node_id() -> NodeId {
-               NodeId::from_pubkey(&PublicKey::from_slice(&hex::decode("02eec7245d6b7d2ccb30380bfbe2a3648cd7a942653f5aa340edcea1f283686619").unwrap()[..]).unwrap())
+               NodeId::from_pubkey(&source_pubkey())
        }
 
        fn target_node_id() -> NodeId {
-               NodeId::from_pubkey(&PublicKey::from_slice(&hex::decode("0324653eac434488002cc06bbfb7f10fe18991e35f9fe4302dbea6d2353dc0ab1c").unwrap()[..]).unwrap())
+               NodeId::from_pubkey(&target_pubkey())
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -572,10 +984,10 @@ mod tests {
                });
                let source = source_node_id();
                let target = target_node_id();
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_000);
 
                SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(1));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_000);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -589,16 +1001,16 @@ mod tests {
                });
                let source = source_node_id();
                let target = target_node_id();
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_000);
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&[], 42);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_064);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_064);
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&[], 42);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_128);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_128);
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&[], 42);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_192);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_192);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -612,25 +1024,50 @@ mod tests {
                });
                let source = source_node_id();
                let target = target_node_id();
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_000);
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&[], 42);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_512);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_512);
 
                SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(9));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_512);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_512);
 
                SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(1));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_256);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_256);
 
                SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10 * 8));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_001);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_001);
 
                SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_000);
 
                SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_000);
+       }
+
+       #[test]
+       fn decays_channel_failure_penalties_without_shift_overflow() {
+               let mut scorer = Scorer::new(ScoringParameters {
+                       base_penalty_msat: 1_000,
+                       failure_penalty_msat: 512,
+                       failure_penalty_half_life: Duration::from_secs(10),
+                       overuse_penalty_start_1024th: 1024,
+                       overuse_penalty_msat_per_1024th: 0,
+               });
+               let source = source_node_id();
+               let target = target_node_id();
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_000);
+
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&[], 42);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_512);
+
+               // An unchecked right shift 64 bits or more in ChannelFailure::decayed_penalty_msat would
+               // cause an overflow.
+               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10 * 64));
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_000);
+
+               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_000);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -644,19 +1081,53 @@ mod tests {
                });
                let source = source_node_id();
                let target = target_node_id();
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_000);
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&[], 42);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_512);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_512);
 
                SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_256);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_256);
+
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&[], 42);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_768);
+
+               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_384);
+       }
+
+       #[test]
+       fn reduces_channel_failure_penalties_after_success() {
+               let mut scorer = Scorer::new(ScoringParameters {
+                       base_penalty_msat: 1_000,
+                       failure_penalty_msat: 512,
+                       failure_penalty_half_life: Duration::from_secs(10),
+                       overuse_penalty_start_1024th: 1024,
+                       overuse_penalty_msat_per_1024th: 0,
+               });
+               let source = source_node_id();
+               let target = target_node_id();
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_000);
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&[], 42);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_768);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_512);
+
+               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_256);
+
+               let hop = RouteHop {
+                       pubkey: PublicKey::from_slice(target.as_slice()).unwrap(),
+                       node_features: NodeFeatures::known(),
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+                       channel_features: ChannelFeatures::known(),
+                       fee_msat: 1,
+                       cltv_expiry_delta: 18,
+               };
+               scorer.payment_path_successful(&[&hop]);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_128);
 
                SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_384);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_064);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -672,20 +1143,20 @@ mod tests {
                let target = target_node_id();
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&[], 42);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_512);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_512);
 
                SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_256);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_256);
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&[], 43);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(43, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_512);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(43, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_512);
 
                let mut serialized_scorer = Vec::new();
                scorer.write(&mut serialized_scorer).unwrap();
 
                let deserialized_scorer = <Scorer>::read(&mut io::Cursor::new(&serialized_scorer)).unwrap();
-               assert_eq!(deserialized_scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_256);
-               assert_eq!(deserialized_scorer.channel_penalty_msat(43, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_512);
+               assert_eq!(deserialized_scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_256);
+               assert_eq!(deserialized_scorer.channel_penalty_msat(43, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_512);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -701,7 +1172,7 @@ mod tests {
                let target = target_node_id();
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&[], 42);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_512);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_512);
 
                let mut serialized_scorer = Vec::new();
                scorer.write(&mut serialized_scorer).unwrap();
@@ -709,10 +1180,10 @@ mod tests {
                SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
 
                let deserialized_scorer = <Scorer>::read(&mut io::Cursor::new(&serialized_scorer)).unwrap();
-               assert_eq!(deserialized_scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_256);
+               assert_eq!(deserialized_scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_256);
 
                SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
-               assert_eq!(deserialized_scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, Some(1), &source, &target), 1_128);
+               assert_eq!(deserialized_scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1, 1, &source, &target), 1_128);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -727,11 +1198,408 @@ mod tests {
                let source = source_node_id();
                let target = target_node_id();
 
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1_000, None, &source, &target), 0);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1_000, Some(1_024_000), &source, &target), 0);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 256_999, Some(1_024_000), &source, &target), 0);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 257_000, Some(1_024_000), &source, &target), 100);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 258_000, Some(1_024_000), &source, &target), 200);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 512_000, Some(1_024_000), &source, &target), 256 * 100);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1_000, 1_024_000, &source, &target), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 256_999, 1_024_000, &source, &target), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 257_000, 1_024_000, &source, &target), 100);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 258_000, 1_024_000, &source, &target), 200);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 512_000, 1_024_000, &source, &target), 256 * 100);
+       }
+
+       // `ProbabilisticScorer` tests
+
+       fn sender_privkey() -> SecretKey {
+               SecretKey::from_slice(&[41; 32]).unwrap()
+       }
+
+       fn recipient_privkey() -> SecretKey {
+               SecretKey::from_slice(&[45; 32]).unwrap()
+       }
+
+       fn sender_pubkey() -> PublicKey {
+               let secp_ctx = Secp256k1::new();
+               PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &sender_privkey())
+       }
+
+       fn recipient_pubkey() -> PublicKey {
+               let secp_ctx = Secp256k1::new();
+               PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &recipient_privkey())
+       }
+
+       fn sender_node_id() -> NodeId {
+               NodeId::from_pubkey(&sender_pubkey())
+       }
+
+       fn recipient_node_id() -> NodeId {
+               NodeId::from_pubkey(&recipient_pubkey())
+       }
+
+       fn network_graph() -> NetworkGraph {
+               let genesis_hash = genesis_block(Network::Testnet).header.block_hash();
+               let mut network_graph = NetworkGraph::new(genesis_hash);
+               add_channel(&mut network_graph, 41, sender_privkey(), source_privkey());
+               add_channel(&mut network_graph, 42, source_privkey(), target_privkey());
+               add_channel(&mut network_graph, 43, target_privkey(), recipient_privkey());
+
+               network_graph
+       }
+
+       fn add_channel(
+               network_graph: &mut NetworkGraph, short_channel_id: u64, node_1_key: SecretKey,
+               node_2_key: SecretKey
+       ) {
+               let genesis_hash = genesis_block(Network::Testnet).header.block_hash();
+               let node_1_secret = &SecretKey::from_slice(&[39; 32]).unwrap();
+               let node_2_secret = &SecretKey::from_slice(&[40; 32]).unwrap();
+               let secp_ctx = Secp256k1::new();
+               let unsigned_announcement = UnsignedChannelAnnouncement {
+                       features: ChannelFeatures::known(),
+                       chain_hash: genesis_hash,
+                       short_channel_id,
+                       node_id_1: PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &node_1_key),
+                       node_id_2: PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &node_2_key),
+                       bitcoin_key_1: PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &node_1_secret),
+                       bitcoin_key_2: PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &node_2_secret),
+                       excess_data: Vec::new(),
+               };
+               let msghash = hash_to_message!(&Sha256dHash::hash(&unsigned_announcement.encode()[..])[..]);
+               let signed_announcement = ChannelAnnouncement {
+                       node_signature_1: secp_ctx.sign(&msghash, &node_1_key),
+                       node_signature_2: secp_ctx.sign(&msghash, &node_2_key),
+                       bitcoin_signature_1: secp_ctx.sign(&msghash, &node_1_secret),
+                       bitcoin_signature_2: secp_ctx.sign(&msghash, &node_2_secret),
+                       contents: unsigned_announcement,
+               };
+               let chain_source: Option<&::util::test_utils::TestChainSource> = None;
+               network_graph.update_channel_from_announcement(
+                       &signed_announcement, &chain_source, &secp_ctx).unwrap();
+               update_channel(network_graph, short_channel_id, node_1_key, 0);
+               update_channel(network_graph, short_channel_id, node_2_key, 1);
+       }
+
+       fn update_channel(
+               network_graph: &mut NetworkGraph, short_channel_id: u64, node_key: SecretKey, flags: u8
+       ) {
+               let genesis_hash = genesis_block(Network::Testnet).header.block_hash();
+               let secp_ctx = Secp256k1::new();
+               let unsigned_update = UnsignedChannelUpdate {
+                       chain_hash: genesis_hash,
+                       short_channel_id,
+                       timestamp: 100,
+                       flags,
+                       cltv_expiry_delta: 18,
+                       htlc_minimum_msat: 0,
+                       htlc_maximum_msat: OptionalField::Present(1_000),
+                       fee_base_msat: 1,
+                       fee_proportional_millionths: 0,
+                       excess_data: Vec::new(),
+               };
+               let msghash = hash_to_message!(&Sha256dHash::hash(&unsigned_update.encode()[..])[..]);
+               let signed_update = ChannelUpdate {
+                       signature: secp_ctx.sign(&msghash, &node_key),
+                       contents: unsigned_update,
+               };
+               network_graph.update_channel(&signed_update, &secp_ctx).unwrap();
+       }
+
+       fn payment_path_for_amount(amount_msat: u64) -> Vec<RouteHop> {
+               vec![
+                       RouteHop {
+                               pubkey: source_pubkey(),
+                               node_features: NodeFeatures::known(),
+                               short_channel_id: 41,
+                               channel_features: ChannelFeatures::known(),
+                               fee_msat: 1,
+                               cltv_expiry_delta: 18,
+                       },
+                       RouteHop {
+                               pubkey: target_pubkey(),
+                               node_features: NodeFeatures::known(),
+                               short_channel_id: 42,
+                               channel_features: ChannelFeatures::known(),
+                               fee_msat: 2,
+                               cltv_expiry_delta: 18,
+                       },
+                       RouteHop {
+                               pubkey: recipient_pubkey(),
+                               node_features: NodeFeatures::known(),
+                               short_channel_id: 43,
+                               channel_features: ChannelFeatures::known(),
+                               fee_msat: amount_msat,
+                               cltv_expiry_delta: 18,
+                       },
+               ]
+       }
+
+       #[test]
+       fn liquidity_bounds_directed_from_lowest_node_id() {
+               let network_graph = network_graph();
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters::default();
+               let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &sender_pubkey(), &network_graph)
+                       .with_channel(42,
+                               ChannelLiquidity {
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 700, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 100
+                               })
+                       .with_channel(43,
+                               ChannelLiquidity {
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 700, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 100
+                               });
+               let source = source_node_id();
+               let target = target_node_id();
+               let recipient = recipient_node_id();
+
+               let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap();
+               assert!(source > target);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000).min_liquidity_msat(), 100);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000).max_liquidity_msat(), 300);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000).min_liquidity_msat(), 700);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000).max_liquidity_msat(), 900);
+
+               liquidity.as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000).set_min_liquidity_msat(200);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000).min_liquidity_msat(), 200);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000).max_liquidity_msat(), 300);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000).min_liquidity_msat(), 700);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000).max_liquidity_msat(), 800);
+
+               let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&43).unwrap();
+               assert!(target < recipient);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&target, &recipient, 1_000).min_liquidity_msat(), 700);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&target, &recipient, 1_000).max_liquidity_msat(), 900);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&recipient, &target, 1_000).min_liquidity_msat(), 100);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&recipient, &target, 1_000).max_liquidity_msat(), 300);
+
+               liquidity.as_directed_mut(&target, &recipient, 1_000).set_max_liquidity_msat(200);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&target, &recipient, 1_000).min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&target, &recipient, 1_000).max_liquidity_msat(), 200);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&recipient, &target, 1_000).min_liquidity_msat(), 800);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.as_directed(&recipient, &target, 1_000).max_liquidity_msat(), 1000);
+       }
+
+       #[test]
+       fn resets_liquidity_upper_bound_when_crossed_by_lower_bound() {
+               let network_graph = network_graph();
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters::default();
+               let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &sender_pubkey(), &network_graph)
+                       .with_channel(42,
+                               ChannelLiquidity {
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 200, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 400
+                               });
+               let source = source_node_id();
+               let target = target_node_id();
+               assert!(source > target);
+
+               // Check initial bounds.
+               let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 400);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 800);
+
+               let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 200);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 600);
+
+               // Reset from source to target.
+               scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000)
+                       .set_min_liquidity_msat(900);
+
+               let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 900);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 1_000);
+
+               let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 100);
+
+               // Reset from target to source.
+               scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed_mut(&target, &source, 1_000)
+                       .set_min_liquidity_msat(400);
+
+               let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 600);
+
+               let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 400);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 1_000);
+       }
+
+       #[test]
+       fn resets_liquidity_lower_bound_when_crossed_by_upper_bound() {
+               let network_graph = network_graph();
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters::default();
+               let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &sender_pubkey(), &network_graph)
+                       .with_channel(42,
+                               ChannelLiquidity {
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 200, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 400
+                               });
+               let source = source_node_id();
+               let target = target_node_id();
+               assert!(source > target);
+
+               // Check initial bounds.
+               let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 400);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 800);
+
+               let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 200);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 600);
+
+               // Reset from source to target.
+               scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000)
+                       .set_max_liquidity_msat(300);
+
+               let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 300);
+
+               let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 700);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 1_000);
+
+               // Reset from target to source.
+               scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed_mut(&target, &source, 1_000)
+                       .set_max_liquidity_msat(600);
+
+               let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 400);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 1_000);
+
+               let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
+               assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 600);
+       }
+
+       #[test]
+       fn increased_penalty_nearing_liquidity_upper_bound() {
+               let network_graph = network_graph();
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters::default();
+               let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &sender_pubkey(), &network_graph);
+               let source = source_node_id();
+               let target = target_node_id();
+
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 100, 100_000, &source, &target), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 1_000, 100_000, &source, &target), 4);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 10_000, 100_000, &source, &target), 45);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 100_000, 100_000, &source, &target), 5_000);
+
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 125, 1_000, &source, &target), 57);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 250, 1_000, &source, &target), 124);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 375, 1_000, &source, &target), 203);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 500, 1_000, &source, &target), 300);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 625, 1_000, &source, &target), 425);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 750, 1_000, &source, &target), 600);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 875, 1_000, &source, &target), 900);
+       }
+
+       #[test]
+       fn constant_penalty_outside_liquidity_bounds() {
+               let network_graph = network_graph();
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters::default();
+               let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &sender_pubkey(), &network_graph)
+                       .with_channel(42,
+                               ChannelLiquidity { min_liquidity_offset_msat: 40, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 40 });
+               let source = source_node_id();
+               let target = target_node_id();
+
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 39, 100, &source, &target), 0);
+               assert_ne!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 50, 100, &source, &target), 0);
+               assert_ne!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 50, 100, &source, &target), u64::max_value());
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 61, 100, &source, &target), u64::max_value());
+       }
+
+       #[test]
+       fn does_not_penalize_own_channel() {
+               let network_graph = network_graph();
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters::default();
+               let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &sender_pubkey(), &network_graph);
+               let sender = sender_node_id();
+               let source = source_node_id();
+               let failed_path = payment_path_for_amount(500);
+               let successful_path = payment_path_for_amount(200);
+
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(41, 500, 1_000, &sender, &source), 0);
+
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&failed_path.iter().collect::<Vec<_>>(), 41);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(41, 500, 1_000, &sender, &source), 0);
+
+               scorer.payment_path_successful(&successful_path.iter().collect::<Vec<_>>());
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(41, 500, 1_000, &sender, &source), 0);
+       }
+
+       #[test]
+       fn sets_liquidity_lower_bound_on_downstream_failure() {
+               let network_graph = network_graph();
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters::default();
+               let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &sender_pubkey(), &network_graph);
+               let source = source_node_id();
+               let target = target_node_id();
+               let path = payment_path_for_amount(500);
+
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 250, 1_000, &source, &target), 124);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 500, 1_000, &source, &target), 300);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 750, 1_000, &source, &target), 600);
+
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&path.iter().collect::<Vec<_>>(), 43);
+
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 250, 1_000, &source, &target), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 500, 1_000, &source, &target), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 750, 1_000, &source, &target), 300);
+       }
+
+       #[test]
+       fn sets_liquidity_upper_bound_on_failure() {
+               let network_graph = network_graph();
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters::default();
+               let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &sender_pubkey(), &network_graph);
+               let source = source_node_id();
+               let target = target_node_id();
+               let path = payment_path_for_amount(500);
+
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 250, 1_000, &source, &target), 124);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 500, 1_000, &source, &target), 300);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 750, 1_000, &source, &target), 600);
+
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&path.iter().collect::<Vec<_>>(), 42);
+
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 250, 1_000, &source, &target), 300);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 500, 1_000, &source, &target), 2699);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 750, 1_000, &source, &target), u64::max_value());
+       }
+
+       #[test]
+       fn reduces_liquidity_upper_bound_along_path_on_success() {
+               let network_graph = network_graph();
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters::default();
+               let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &sender_pubkey(), &network_graph);
+               let sender = sender_node_id();
+               let source = source_node_id();
+               let target = target_node_id();
+               let recipient = recipient_node_id();
+               let path = payment_path_for_amount(500);
+
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(41, 250, 1_000, &sender, &source), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 250, 1_000, &source, &target), 124);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(43, 250, 1_000, &target, &recipient), 124);
+
+               scorer.payment_path_successful(&path.iter().collect::<Vec<_>>());
+
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(41, 250, 1_000, &sender, &source), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 250, 1_000, &source, &target), 300);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(43, 250, 1_000, &target, &recipient), 300);
        }
 }