Avoid excess multiplies by multiplying in `success_probability`
[rust-lightning] / lightning / src / routing / scoring.rs
index 207e1d69bd98d2b66974884ab1226f1b36562a73..b6ca7eeeebe159492716a6e9f5448d37de100304 100644 (file)
@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@
 //! #
 //! # struct FakeLogger {};
 //! # impl Logger for FakeLogger {
-//! #     fn log(&self, record: &Record) { unimplemented!() }
+//! #     fn log(&self, record: Record) { unimplemented!() }
 //! # }
 //! # fn find_scored_route(payer: PublicKey, route_params: RouteParameters, network_graph: NetworkGraph<&FakeLogger>) {
 //! # let logger = FakeLogger {};
 
 use crate::ln::msgs::DecodeError;
 use crate::routing::gossip::{EffectiveCapacity, NetworkGraph, NodeId};
-use crate::routing::router::Path;
+use crate::routing::router::{Path, CandidateRouteHop};
+use crate::routing::log_approx;
 use crate::util::ser::{Readable, ReadableArgs, Writeable, Writer};
 use crate::util::logger::Logger;
-use crate::util::time::Time;
 
 use crate::prelude::*;
 use core::{cmp, fmt};
@@ -103,23 +103,29 @@ pub trait ScoreLookUp {
        /// [`u64::max_value`] is given to indicate sufficient capacity for the invoice's full amount.
        /// Thus, implementations should be overflow-safe.
        fn channel_penalty_msat(
-               &self, short_channel_id: u64, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, usage: ChannelUsage, score_params: &Self::ScoreParams
+               &self, candidate: &CandidateRouteHop, usage: ChannelUsage, score_params: &Self::ScoreParams
        ) -> u64;
 }
 
 /// `ScoreUpdate` is used to update the scorer's internal state after a payment attempt.
 pub trait ScoreUpdate {
        /// Handles updating channel penalties after failing to route through a channel.
-       fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64);
+       fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration);
 
        /// Handles updating channel penalties after successfully routing along a path.
-       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &Path);
+       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &Path, duration_since_epoch: Duration);
 
        /// Handles updating channel penalties after a probe over the given path failed.
-       fn probe_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64);
+       fn probe_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration);
 
        /// Handles updating channel penalties after a probe over the given path succeeded.
-       fn probe_successful(&mut self, path: &Path);
+       fn probe_successful(&mut self, path: &Path, duration_since_epoch: Duration);
+
+       /// Scorers may wish to reduce their certainty of channel liquidity information over time.
+       /// Thus, this method is provided to allow scorers to observe the passage of time - the holder
+       /// of this object should call this method regularly (generally via the
+       /// `lightning-background-processor` crate).
+       fn decay_liquidity_certainty(&mut self, duration_since_epoch: Duration);
 }
 
 /// A trait which can both lookup and update routing channel penalty scores.
@@ -137,28 +143,32 @@ impl<T: ScoreLookUp + ScoreUpdate $(+ $supertrait)*> Score for T {}
 impl<S: ScoreLookUp, T: Deref<Target=S>> ScoreLookUp for T {
        type ScoreParams = S::ScoreParams;
        fn channel_penalty_msat(
-               &self, short_channel_id: u64, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, usage: ChannelUsage, score_params: &Self::ScoreParams
+               &self, candidate: &CandidateRouteHop, usage: ChannelUsage, score_params: &Self::ScoreParams
        ) -> u64 {
-               self.deref().channel_penalty_msat(short_channel_id, source, target, usage, score_params)
+               self.deref().channel_penalty_msat(candidate, usage, score_params)
        }
 }
 
 #[cfg(not(c_bindings))]
 impl<S: ScoreUpdate, T: DerefMut<Target=S>> ScoreUpdate for T {
-       fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64) {
-               self.deref_mut().payment_path_failed(path, short_channel_id)
+       fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
+               self.deref_mut().payment_path_failed(path, short_channel_id, duration_since_epoch)
+       }
+
+       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &Path, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
+               self.deref_mut().payment_path_successful(path, duration_since_epoch)
        }
 
-       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &Path) {
-               self.deref_mut().payment_path_successful(path)
+       fn probe_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
+               self.deref_mut().probe_failed(path, short_channel_id, duration_since_epoch)
        }
 
-       fn probe_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64) {
-               self.deref_mut().probe_failed(path, short_channel_id)
+       fn probe_successful(&mut self, path: &Path, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
+               self.deref_mut().probe_successful(path, duration_since_epoch)
        }
 
-       fn probe_successful(&mut self, path: &Path) {
-               self.deref_mut().probe_successful(path)
+       fn decay_liquidity_certainty(&mut self, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
+               self.deref_mut().decay_liquidity_certainty(duration_since_epoch)
        }
 }
 } }
@@ -315,10 +325,9 @@ impl<'a, T: 'a + Score> Deref for MultiThreadedScoreLockRead<'a, T> {
 #[cfg(c_bindings)]
 impl<'a, T: Score> ScoreLookUp for MultiThreadedScoreLockRead<'a, T> {
        type ScoreParams = T::ScoreParams;
-       fn channel_penalty_msat(&self, short_channel_id: u64, source: &NodeId,
-               target: &NodeId, usage: ChannelUsage, score_params: &Self::ScoreParams
+       fn channel_penalty_msat(&self, candidate:&CandidateRouteHop, usage: ChannelUsage, score_params: &Self::ScoreParams
        ) -> u64 {
-               self.0.channel_penalty_msat(short_channel_id, source, target, usage, score_params)
+               self.0.channel_penalty_msat(candidate, usage, score_params)
        }
 }
 
@@ -347,20 +356,24 @@ impl<'a, T: 'a + Score> DerefMut for MultiThreadedScoreLockWrite<'a, T> {
 
 #[cfg(c_bindings)]
 impl<'a, T: Score> ScoreUpdate for MultiThreadedScoreLockWrite<'a, T> {
-       fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64) {
-               self.0.payment_path_failed(path, short_channel_id)
+       fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
+               self.0.payment_path_failed(path, short_channel_id, duration_since_epoch)
+       }
+
+       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &Path, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
+               self.0.payment_path_successful(path, duration_since_epoch)
        }
 
-       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &Path) {
-               self.0.payment_path_successful(path)
+       fn probe_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
+               self.0.probe_failed(path, short_channel_id, duration_since_epoch)
        }
 
-       fn probe_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64) {
-               self.0.probe_failed(path, short_channel_id)
+       fn probe_successful(&mut self, path: &Path, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
+               self.0.probe_successful(path, duration_since_epoch)
        }
 
-       fn probe_successful(&mut self, path: &Path) {
-               self.0.probe_successful(path)
+       fn decay_liquidity_certainty(&mut self, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
+               self.0.decay_liquidity_certainty(duration_since_epoch)
        }
 }
 
@@ -394,19 +407,21 @@ impl FixedPenaltyScorer {
 
 impl ScoreLookUp for FixedPenaltyScorer {
        type ScoreParams = ();
-       fn channel_penalty_msat(&self, _: u64, _: &NodeId, _: &NodeId, _: ChannelUsage, _score_params: &Self::ScoreParams) -> u64 {
+       fn channel_penalty_msat(&self, _: &CandidateRouteHop, _: ChannelUsage, _score_params: &Self::ScoreParams) -> u64 {
                self.penalty_msat
        }
 }
 
 impl ScoreUpdate for FixedPenaltyScorer {
-       fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, _path: &Path, _short_channel_id: u64) {}
+       fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, _path: &Path, _short_channel_id: u64, _duration_since_epoch: Duration) {}
 
-       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, _path: &Path) {}
+       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, _path: &Path, _duration_since_epoch: Duration) {}
 
-       fn probe_failed(&mut self, _path: &Path, _short_channel_id: u64) {}
+       fn probe_failed(&mut self, _path: &Path, _short_channel_id: u64, _duration_since_epoch: Duration) {}
 
-       fn probe_successful(&mut self, _path: &Path) {}
+       fn probe_successful(&mut self, _path: &Path, _duration_since_epoch: Duration) {}
+
+       fn decay_liquidity_certainty(&mut self, _duration_since_epoch: Duration) {}
 }
 
 impl Writeable for FixedPenaltyScorer {
@@ -425,13 +440,6 @@ impl ReadableArgs<u64> for FixedPenaltyScorer {
        }
 }
 
-#[cfg(not(feature = "no-std"))]
-type ConfiguredTime = crate::util::time::MonotonicTime;
-#[cfg(feature = "no-std")]
-use crate::util::time::Eternity;
-#[cfg(feature = "no-std")]
-type ConfiguredTime = Eternity;
-
 /// [`ScoreLookUp`] implementation using channel success probability distributions.
 ///
 /// Channels are tracked with upper and lower liquidity bounds - when an HTLC fails at a channel,
@@ -457,29 +465,18 @@ type ConfiguredTime = Eternity;
 /// formula, but using the history of a channel rather than our latest estimates for the liquidity
 /// bounds.
 ///
-/// # Note
-///
-/// Mixing the `no-std` feature between serialization and deserialization results in undefined
-/// behavior.
-///
 /// [1]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.05322
 /// [`liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat`]: ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat
 /// [`liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat`]: ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat
 /// [`liquidity_offset_half_life`]: ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::liquidity_offset_half_life
 /// [`historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat`]: ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat
 /// [`historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat`]: ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat
-pub type ProbabilisticScorer<G, L> = ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime::<G, L, ConfiguredTime>;
-
-/// Probabilistic [`ScoreLookUp`] implementation.
-///
-/// This is not exported to bindings users generally all users should use the [`ProbabilisticScorer`] type alias.
-pub struct ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time>
+pub struct ProbabilisticScorer<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref>
 where L::Target: Logger {
        decay_params: ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters,
        network_graph: G,
        logger: L,
-       // TODO: Remove entries of closed channels.
-       channel_liquidities: HashMap<u64, ChannelLiquidity<T>>,
+       channel_liquidities: HashMap<u64, ChannelLiquidity>,
 }
 
 /// Parameters for configuring [`ProbabilisticScorer`].
@@ -734,7 +731,7 @@ pub struct ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters {
        ///
        /// Default value: 14 days
        ///
-       /// [`historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities`]: ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime::historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities
+       /// [`historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities`]: ProbabilisticScorer::historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities
        pub historical_no_updates_half_life: Duration,
 
        /// Whenever this amount of time elapses since the last update to a channel's liquidity bounds,
@@ -783,33 +780,46 @@ impl ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters {
 /// Direction is defined in terms of [`NodeId`] partial ordering, where the source node is the
 /// first node in the ordering of the channel's counterparties. Thus, swapping the two liquidity
 /// offset fields gives the opposite direction.
-struct ChannelLiquidity<T: Time> {
+#[repr(C)] // Force the fields in memory to be in the order we specify
+struct ChannelLiquidity {
        /// Lower channel liquidity bound in terms of an offset from zero.
        min_liquidity_offset_msat: u64,
 
        /// Upper channel liquidity bound in terms of an offset from the effective capacity.
        max_liquidity_offset_msat: u64,
 
-       /// Time when the liquidity bounds were last modified.
-       last_updated: T,
+       liquidity_history: HistoricalLiquidityTracker,
+
+       /// Time when the liquidity bounds were last modified as an offset since the unix epoch.
+       last_updated: Duration,
 
-       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker,
-       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker,
+       /// Time when the historical liquidity bounds were last modified as an offset against the unix
+       /// epoch.
+       offset_history_last_updated: Duration,
 }
 
+// Check that the liquidity HashMap's entries sit on round cache lines.
+//
+// Specifically, the first cache line will have the key, the liquidity offsets, and the total
+// points tracked in the historical tracker.
+//
+// The next two cache lines will have the historical points, which we only access last during
+// scoring, followed by the last_updated `Duration`s (which we do not need during scoring).
+const _LIQUIDITY_MAP_SIZING_CHECK: usize = 192 - ::core::mem::size_of::<(u64, ChannelLiquidity)>();
+const _LIQUIDITY_MAP_SIZING_CHECK_2: usize = ::core::mem::size_of::<(u64, ChannelLiquidity)>() - 192;
+
 /// A snapshot of [`ChannelLiquidity`] in one direction assuming a certain channel capacity and
 /// decayed with a given half life.
-struct DirectedChannelLiquidity<L: Deref<Target = u64>, BRT: Deref<Target = HistoricalBucketRangeTracker>, T: Time, U: Deref<Target = T>> {
+struct DirectedChannelLiquidity<L: Deref<Target = u64>, HT: Deref<Target = HistoricalLiquidityTracker>, T: Deref<Target = Duration>> {
        min_liquidity_offset_msat: L,
        max_liquidity_offset_msat: L,
-       liquidity_history: HistoricalMinMaxBuckets<BRT>,
+       liquidity_history: DirectedHistoricalLiquidityTracker<HT>,
        capacity_msat: u64,
-       last_updated: U,
-       now: T,
-       decay_params: ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters,
+       last_updated: T,
+       offset_history_last_updated: T,
 }
 
-impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime<G, L, T> where L::Target: Logger {
+impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref> ProbabilisticScorer<G, L> where L::Target: Logger {
        /// Creates a new scorer using the given scoring parameters for sending payments from a node
        /// through a network graph.
        pub fn new(decay_params: ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters, network_graph: G, logger: L) -> Self {
@@ -822,7 +832,7 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU
        }
 
        #[cfg(test)]
-       fn with_channel(mut self, short_channel_id: u64, liquidity: ChannelLiquidity<T>) -> Self {
+       fn with_channel(mut self, short_channel_id: u64, liquidity: ChannelLiquidity) -> Self {
                assert!(self.channel_liquidities.insert(short_channel_id, liquidity).is_none());
                self
        }
@@ -832,20 +842,16 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU
        /// Note that this writes roughly one line per channel for which we have a liquidity estimate,
        /// which may be a substantial amount of log output.
        pub fn debug_log_liquidity_stats(&self) {
-               let now = T::now();
-
                let graph = self.network_graph.read_only();
                for (scid, liq) in self.channel_liquidities.iter() {
                        if let Some(chan_debug) = graph.channels().get(scid) {
                                let log_direction = |source, target| {
                                        if let Some((directed_info, _)) = chan_debug.as_directed_to(target) {
                                                let amt = directed_info.effective_capacity().as_msat();
-                                               let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, amt, self.decay_params);
+                                               let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, amt);
 
-                                               let (min_buckets, max_buckets) = dir_liq.liquidity_history
-                                                       .get_decayed_buckets(now, *dir_liq.last_updated,
-                                                               self.decay_params.historical_no_updates_half_life)
-                                                       .unwrap_or(([0; 32], [0; 32]));
+                                               let min_buckets = &dir_liq.liquidity_history.min_liquidity_offset_history_buckets();
+                                               let max_buckets = &dir_liq.liquidity_history.max_liquidity_offset_history_buckets();
 
                                                log_debug!(self.logger, core::concat!(
                                                        "Liquidity from {} to {} via {} is in the range ({}, {}).\n",
@@ -894,7 +900,7 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU
                        if let Some(liq) = self.channel_liquidities.get(&scid) {
                                if let Some((directed_info, source)) = chan.as_directed_to(target) {
                                        let amt = directed_info.effective_capacity().as_msat();
-                                       let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, amt, self.decay_params);
+                                       let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, amt);
                                        return Some((dir_liq.min_liquidity_msat(), dir_liq.max_liquidity_msat()));
                                }
                        }
@@ -924,7 +930,7 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU
        /// in the top and bottom bucket, and roughly with similar (recent) frequency.
        ///
        /// Because the datapoints are decayed slowly over time, values will eventually return to
-       /// `Some(([1; 32], [1; 32]))` and then to `None` once no datapoints remain.
+       /// `Some(([0; 32], [0; 32]))` or `None` if no data remains for a channel.
        ///
        /// In order to fetch a single success probability from the buckets provided here, as used in
        /// the scoring model, see [`Self::historical_estimated_payment_success_probability`].
@@ -936,13 +942,10 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU
                        if let Some(liq) = self.channel_liquidities.get(&scid) {
                                if let Some((directed_info, source)) = chan.as_directed_to(target) {
                                        let amt = directed_info.effective_capacity().as_msat();
-                                       let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, amt, self.decay_params);
+                                       let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, amt);
 
-                                       let (min_buckets, mut max_buckets) =
-                                               dir_liq.liquidity_history.get_decayed_buckets(
-                                                       dir_liq.now, *dir_liq.last_updated,
-                                                       self.decay_params.historical_no_updates_half_life
-                                               )?;
+                                       let min_buckets = *dir_liq.liquidity_history.min_liquidity_offset_history_buckets();
+                                       let mut max_buckets = *dir_liq.liquidity_history.max_liquidity_offset_history_buckets();
 
                                        // Note that the liquidity buckets are an offset from the edge, so we inverse
                                        // the max order to get the probabilities from zero.
@@ -970,12 +973,10 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU
                        if let Some(liq) = self.channel_liquidities.get(&scid) {
                                if let Some((directed_info, source)) = chan.as_directed_to(target) {
                                        let capacity_msat = directed_info.effective_capacity().as_msat();
-                                       let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, capacity_msat, self.decay_params);
+                                       let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, capacity_msat);
 
                                        return dir_liq.liquidity_history.calculate_success_probability_times_billion(
-                                               dir_liq.now, *dir_liq.last_updated,
-                                               self.decay_params.historical_no_updates_half_life, &params, amount_msat,
-                                               capacity_msat
+                                               &params, amount_msat, capacity_msat
                                        ).map(|p| p as f64 / (1024 * 1024 * 1024) as f64);
                                }
                        }
@@ -984,71 +985,72 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU
        }
 }
 
-impl<T: Time> ChannelLiquidity<T> {
-       #[inline]
-       fn new() -> Self {
+impl ChannelLiquidity {
+       fn new(last_updated: Duration) -> Self {
                Self {
                        min_liquidity_offset_msat: 0,
                        max_liquidity_offset_msat: 0,
-                       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
-                       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
-                       last_updated: T::now(),
+                       liquidity_history: HistoricalLiquidityTracker::new(),
+                       last_updated,
+                       offset_history_last_updated: last_updated,
                }
        }
 
        /// Returns a view of the channel liquidity directed from `source` to `target` assuming
        /// `capacity_msat`.
        fn as_directed(
-               &self, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, capacity_msat: u64, decay_params: ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters
-       ) -> DirectedChannelLiquidity<&u64, &HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, T, &T> {
-               let (min_liquidity_offset_msat, max_liquidity_offset_msat, min_liquidity_offset_history, max_liquidity_offset_history) =
-                       if source < target {
-                               (&self.min_liquidity_offset_msat, &self.max_liquidity_offset_msat,
-                                       &self.min_liquidity_offset_history, &self.max_liquidity_offset_history)
+               &self, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, capacity_msat: u64,
+       ) -> DirectedChannelLiquidity<&u64, &HistoricalLiquidityTracker, &Duration> {
+               let source_less_than_target = source < target;
+               let (min_liquidity_offset_msat, max_liquidity_offset_msat) =
+                       if source_less_than_target {
+                               (&self.min_liquidity_offset_msat, &self.max_liquidity_offset_msat)
                        } else {
-                               (&self.max_liquidity_offset_msat, &self.min_liquidity_offset_msat,
-                                       &self.max_liquidity_offset_history, &self.min_liquidity_offset_history)
+                               (&self.max_liquidity_offset_msat, &self.min_liquidity_offset_msat)
                        };
 
                DirectedChannelLiquidity {
                        min_liquidity_offset_msat,
                        max_liquidity_offset_msat,
-                       liquidity_history: HistoricalMinMaxBuckets {
-                               min_liquidity_offset_history,
-                               max_liquidity_offset_history,
-                       },
+                       liquidity_history: self.liquidity_history.as_directed(source_less_than_target),
                        capacity_msat,
                        last_updated: &self.last_updated,
-                       now: T::now(),
-                       decay_params: decay_params,
+                       offset_history_last_updated: &self.offset_history_last_updated,
                }
        }
 
        /// Returns a mutable view of the channel liquidity directed from `source` to `target` assuming
        /// `capacity_msat`.
        fn as_directed_mut(
-               &mut self, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, capacity_msat: u64, decay_params: ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters
-       ) -> DirectedChannelLiquidity<&mut u64, &mut HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, T, &mut T> {
-               let (min_liquidity_offset_msat, max_liquidity_offset_msat, min_liquidity_offset_history, max_liquidity_offset_history) =
-                       if source < target {
-                               (&mut self.min_liquidity_offset_msat, &mut self.max_liquidity_offset_msat,
-                                       &mut self.min_liquidity_offset_history, &mut self.max_liquidity_offset_history)
+               &mut self, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, capacity_msat: u64,
+       ) -> DirectedChannelLiquidity<&mut u64, &mut HistoricalLiquidityTracker, &mut Duration> {
+               let source_less_than_target = source < target;
+               let (min_liquidity_offset_msat, max_liquidity_offset_msat) =
+                       if source_less_than_target {
+                               (&mut self.min_liquidity_offset_msat, &mut self.max_liquidity_offset_msat)
                        } else {
-                               (&mut self.max_liquidity_offset_msat, &mut self.min_liquidity_offset_msat,
-                                       &mut self.max_liquidity_offset_history, &mut self.min_liquidity_offset_history)
+                               (&mut self.max_liquidity_offset_msat, &mut self.min_liquidity_offset_msat)
                        };
 
                DirectedChannelLiquidity {
                        min_liquidity_offset_msat,
                        max_liquidity_offset_msat,
-                       liquidity_history: HistoricalMinMaxBuckets {
-                               min_liquidity_offset_history,
-                               max_liquidity_offset_history,
-                       },
+                       liquidity_history: self.liquidity_history.as_directed_mut(source_less_than_target),
                        capacity_msat,
                        last_updated: &mut self.last_updated,
-                       now: T::now(),
-                       decay_params: decay_params,
+                       offset_history_last_updated: &mut self.offset_history_last_updated,
+               }
+       }
+
+       fn decayed_offset(&self, offset: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration,
+               decay_params: ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters
+       ) -> u64 {
+               let half_life = decay_params.liquidity_offset_half_life.as_secs_f64();
+               if half_life != 0.0 {
+                       let elapsed_time = duration_since_epoch.saturating_sub(self.last_updated).as_secs_f64();
+                       ((offset as f64) * powf64(0.5, elapsed_time / half_life)) as u64
+               } else {
+                       0
                }
        }
 }
@@ -1059,7 +1061,7 @@ const NEGATIVE_LOG10_UPPER_BOUND: u64 = 2;
 
 /// The rough cutoff at which our precision falls off and we should stop bothering to try to log a
 /// ratio, as X in 1/X.
-const PRECISION_LOWER_BOUND_DENOMINATOR: u64 = approx::LOWER_BITS_BOUND;
+const PRECISION_LOWER_BOUND_DENOMINATOR: u64 = log_approx::LOWER_BITS_BOUND;
 
 /// The divisor used when computing the amount penalty.
 const AMOUNT_PENALTY_DIVISOR: u64 = 1 << 20;
@@ -1071,11 +1073,55 @@ fn three_f64_pow_3(a: f64, b: f64, c: f64) -> (f64, f64, f64) {
        (a * a * a, b * b * b, c * c * c)
 }
 
+#[inline(always)]
+fn linear_success_probability(
+       amount_msat: u64, min_liquidity_msat: u64, max_liquidity_msat: u64,
+       min_zero_implies_no_successes: bool,
+) -> (u64, u64) {
+       let (numerator, mut denominator) =
+               (max_liquidity_msat - amount_msat,
+                (max_liquidity_msat - min_liquidity_msat).saturating_add(1));
+
+       if min_zero_implies_no_successes && min_liquidity_msat == 0 &&
+               denominator < u64::max_value() / 21
+       {
+               // If we have no knowledge of the channel, scale probability down by ~75%
+               // Note that we prefer to increase the denominator rather than decrease the numerator as
+               // the denominator is more likely to be larger and thus provide greater precision. This is
+               // mostly an overoptimization but makes a large difference in tests.
+               denominator = denominator * 21 / 16
+       }
+
+       (numerator, denominator)
+}
+
+#[inline(always)]
+fn nonlinear_success_probability(
+       amount_msat: u64, min_liquidity_msat: u64, max_liquidity_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64,
+) -> (f64, f64) {
+       let capacity = capacity_msat as f64;
+       let min = (min_liquidity_msat as f64) / capacity;
+       let max = (max_liquidity_msat as f64) / capacity;
+       let amount = (amount_msat as f64) / capacity;
+
+       // Assume the channel has a probability density function of (x - 0.5)^2 for values from
+       // 0 to 1 (where 1 is the channel's full capacity). The success probability given some
+       // liquidity bounds is thus the integral under the curve from the amount to maximum
+       // estimated liquidity, divided by the same integral from the minimum to the maximum
+       // estimated liquidity bounds.
+       //
+       // Because the integral from x to y is simply (y - 0.5)^3 - (x - 0.5)^3, we can
+       // calculate the cumulative density function between the min/max bounds trivially. Note
+       // that we don't bother to normalize the CDF to total to 1, as it will come out in the
+       // division of num / den.
+       let (max_pow, amt_pow, min_pow) = three_f64_pow_3(max - 0.5, amount - 0.5, min - 0.5);
+       (max_pow - amt_pow, max_pow - min_pow)
+}
+
+
 /// Given liquidity bounds, calculates the success probability (in the form of a numerator and
 /// denominator) of an HTLC. This is a key assumption in our scoring models.
 ///
-/// Must not return a numerator or denominator greater than 2^31 for arguments less than 2^31.
-///
 /// min_zero_implies_no_successes signals that a `min_liquidity_msat` of 0 means we've not
 /// (recently) seen an HTLC successfully complete over this channel.
 #[inline(always)]
@@ -1087,39 +1133,23 @@ fn success_probability(
        debug_assert!(amount_msat < max_liquidity_msat);
        debug_assert!(max_liquidity_msat <= capacity_msat);
 
-       let (numerator, mut denominator) =
-               if params.linear_success_probability {
-                       (max_liquidity_msat - amount_msat,
-                               (max_liquidity_msat - min_liquidity_msat).saturating_add(1))
-               } else {
-                       let capacity = capacity_msat as f64;
-                       let min = (min_liquidity_msat as f64) / capacity;
-                       let max = (max_liquidity_msat as f64) / capacity;
-                       let amount = (amount_msat as f64) / capacity;
-
-                       // Assume the channel has a probability density function of (x - 0.5)^2 for values from
-                       // 0 to 1 (where 1 is the channel's full capacity). The success probability given some
-                       // liquidity bounds is thus the integral under the curve from the amount to maximum
-                       // estimated liquidity, divided by the same integral from the minimum to the maximum
-                       // estimated liquidity bounds.
-                       //
-                       // Because the integral from x to y is simply (y - 0.5)^3 - (x - 0.5)^3, we can
-                       // calculate the cumulative density function between the min/max bounds trivially. Note
-                       // that we don't bother to normalize the CDF to total to 1, as it will come out in the
-                       // division of num / den.
-                       let (max_pow, amt_pow, min_pow) = three_f64_pow_3(max - 0.5, amount - 0.5, min - 0.5);
-                       let num = max_pow - amt_pow;
-                       let den = max_pow - min_pow;
-
-                       // Because our numerator and denominator max out at 0.5^3 we need to multiply them by
-                       // quite a large factor to get something useful (ideally in the 2^30 range).
-                       const BILLIONISH: f64 = 1024.0 * 1024.0 * 1024.0;
-                       let numerator = (num * BILLIONISH) as u64 + 1;
-                       let denominator = (den * BILLIONISH) as u64 + 1;
-                       debug_assert!(numerator <= 1 << 30, "Got large numerator ({}) from float {}.", numerator, num);
-                       debug_assert!(denominator <= 1 << 30, "Got large denominator ({}) from float {}.", denominator, den);
-                       (numerator, denominator)
-               };
+       if params.linear_success_probability {
+               return linear_success_probability(
+                       amount_msat, min_liquidity_msat, max_liquidity_msat, min_zero_implies_no_successes
+               );
+       }
+
+       let (num, den) = nonlinear_success_probability(
+               amount_msat, min_liquidity_msat, max_liquidity_msat, capacity_msat
+       );
+
+       // Because our numerator and denominator max out at 0.5^3 we need to multiply them by
+       // quite a large factor to get something useful (ideally in the 2^30 range).
+       const BILLIONISH: f64 = 1024.0 * 1024.0 * 1024.0;
+       let numerator = (num * BILLIONISH) as u64 + 1;
+       let mut denominator = (den * BILLIONISH) as u64 + 1;
+       debug_assert!(numerator <= 1 << 30, "Got large numerator ({}) from float {}.", numerator, num);
+       debug_assert!(denominator <= 1 << 30, "Got large denominator ({}) from float {}.", denominator, den);
 
        if min_zero_implies_no_successes && min_liquidity_msat == 0 &&
                denominator < u64::max_value() / 21
@@ -1134,7 +1164,47 @@ fn success_probability(
        (numerator, denominator)
 }
 
-impl<L: Deref<Target = u64>, BRT: Deref<Target = HistoricalBucketRangeTracker>, T: Time, U: Deref<Target = T>> DirectedChannelLiquidity< L, BRT, T, U> {
+/// Given liquidity bounds, calculates the success probability (times some value) of an HTLC. This
+/// is a key assumption in our scoring models.
+///
+/// min_zero_implies_no_successes signals that a `min_liquidity_msat` of 0 means we've not
+/// (recently) seen an HTLC successfully complete over this channel.
+#[inline(always)]
+fn success_probability_times_value(
+       amount_msat: u64, min_liquidity_msat: u64, max_liquidity_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64,
+       params: &ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters, min_zero_implies_no_successes: bool,
+       value: u32,
+) -> u64 {
+       debug_assert!(min_liquidity_msat <= amount_msat);
+       debug_assert!(amount_msat < max_liquidity_msat);
+       debug_assert!(max_liquidity_msat <= capacity_msat);
+
+       if params.linear_success_probability {
+               let (numerator, denominator) = linear_success_probability(
+                       amount_msat, min_liquidity_msat, max_liquidity_msat, min_zero_implies_no_successes
+               );
+               return (value as u64) * numerator / denominator;
+       }
+
+       let (num, mut den) = nonlinear_success_probability(
+               amount_msat, min_liquidity_msat, max_liquidity_msat, capacity_msat
+       );
+
+       if min_zero_implies_no_successes && min_liquidity_msat == 0 {
+               // If we have no knowledge of the channel, scale probability down by ~75%
+               // Note that we prefer to increase the denominator rather than decrease the numerator as
+               // the denominator is more likely to be larger and thus provide greater precision. This is
+               // mostly an overoptimization but makes a large difference in tests.
+               den = den * 21.0 / 16.0
+       }
+
+       let res = (value as f64) * num / den;
+
+       res as u64
+}
+
+impl<L: Deref<Target = u64>, HT: Deref<Target = HistoricalLiquidityTracker>, T: Deref<Target = Duration>>
+DirectedChannelLiquidity< L, HT, T> {
        /// Returns a liquidity penalty for routing the given HTLC `amount_msat` through the channel in
        /// this direction.
        fn penalty_msat(&self, amount_msat: u64, score_params: &ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters) -> u64 {
@@ -1163,7 +1233,7 @@ impl<L: Deref<Target = u64>, BRT: Deref<Target = HistoricalBucketRangeTracker>,
                                0
                        } else {
                                let negative_log10_times_2048 =
-                                       approx::negative_log10_times_2048(numerator, denominator);
+                                       log_approx::negative_log10_times_2048(numerator, denominator);
                                Self::combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat, negative_log10_times_2048,
                                        score_params.liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat,
                                        score_params.liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat)
@@ -1182,11 +1252,11 @@ impl<L: Deref<Target = u64>, BRT: Deref<Target = HistoricalBucketRangeTracker>,
                if score_params.historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat != 0 ||
                   score_params.historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat != 0 {
                        if let Some(cumulative_success_prob_times_billion) = self.liquidity_history
-                               .calculate_success_probability_times_billion(self.now, *self.last_updated,
-                                       self.decay_params.historical_no_updates_half_life, score_params, amount_msat,
-                                       self.capacity_msat)
+                               .calculate_success_probability_times_billion(
+                                       score_params, amount_msat, self.capacity_msat)
                        {
-                               let historical_negative_log10_times_2048 = approx::negative_log10_times_2048(cumulative_success_prob_times_billion + 1, 1024 * 1024 * 1024);
+                               let historical_negative_log10_times_2048 =
+                                       log_approx::negative_log10_times_2048(cumulative_success_prob_times_billion + 1, 1024 * 1024 * 1024);
                                res = res.saturating_add(Self::combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat,
                                        historical_negative_log10_times_2048, score_params.historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat,
                                        score_params.historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat));
@@ -1197,7 +1267,7 @@ impl<L: Deref<Target = u64>, BRT: Deref<Target = HistoricalBucketRangeTracker>,
                                let (numerator, denominator) = success_probability(amount_msat, 0,
                                        available_capacity, available_capacity, score_params, true);
                                let negative_log10_times_2048 =
-                                       approx::negative_log10_times_2048(numerator, denominator);
+                                       log_approx::negative_log10_times_2048(numerator, denominator);
                                res = res.saturating_add(Self::combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat, negative_log10_times_2048,
                                        score_params.historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat,
                                        score_params.historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat));
@@ -1228,124 +1298,104 @@ impl<L: Deref<Target = u64>, BRT: Deref<Target = HistoricalBucketRangeTracker>,
        /// Returns the lower bound of the channel liquidity balance in this direction.
        #[inline(always)]
        fn min_liquidity_msat(&self) -> u64 {
-               self.decayed_offset_msat(*self.min_liquidity_offset_msat)
+               *self.min_liquidity_offset_msat
        }
 
        /// Returns the upper bound of the channel liquidity balance in this direction.
        #[inline(always)]
        fn max_liquidity_msat(&self) -> u64 {
                self.capacity_msat
-                       .saturating_sub(self.decayed_offset_msat(*self.max_liquidity_offset_msat))
-       }
-
-       fn decayed_offset_msat(&self, offset_msat: u64) -> u64 {
-               let half_life = self.decay_params.liquidity_offset_half_life.as_secs();
-               if half_life != 0 {
-                       // Decay the offset by the appropriate number of half lives. If half of the next half
-                       // life has passed, approximate an additional three-quarter life to help smooth out the
-                       // decay.
-                       let elapsed_time = self.now.duration_since(*self.last_updated).as_secs();
-                       let half_decays = elapsed_time / (half_life / 2);
-                       let decays = half_decays / 2;
-                       let decayed_offset_msat = offset_msat.checked_shr(decays as u32).unwrap_or(0);
-                       if half_decays % 2 == 0 {
-                               decayed_offset_msat
-                       } else {
-                               // 11_585 / 16_384 ~= core::f64::consts::FRAC_1_SQRT_2
-                               // 16_384 == 2^14
-                               (decayed_offset_msat as u128 * 11_585 / 16_384) as u64
-                       }
-               } else {
-                       0
-               }
+                       .saturating_sub(*self.max_liquidity_offset_msat)
        }
 }
 
-impl<L: DerefMut<Target = u64>, BRT: DerefMut<Target = HistoricalBucketRangeTracker>, T: Time, U: DerefMut<Target = T>> DirectedChannelLiquidity<L, BRT, T, U> {
+impl<L: DerefMut<Target = u64>, HT: DerefMut<Target = HistoricalLiquidityTracker>, T: DerefMut<Target = Duration>>
+DirectedChannelLiquidity<L, HT, T> {
        /// Adjusts the channel liquidity balance bounds when failing to route `amount_msat`.
-       fn failed_at_channel<Log: Deref>(&mut self, amount_msat: u64, chan_descr: fmt::Arguments, logger: &Log) where Log::Target: Logger {
+       fn failed_at_channel<Log: Deref>(
+               &mut self, amount_msat: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration, chan_descr: fmt::Arguments, logger: &Log
+       ) where Log::Target: Logger {
                let existing_max_msat = self.max_liquidity_msat();
                if amount_msat < existing_max_msat {
                        log_debug!(logger, "Setting max liquidity of {} from {} to {}", chan_descr, existing_max_msat, amount_msat);
-                       self.set_max_liquidity_msat(amount_msat);
+                       self.set_max_liquidity_msat(amount_msat, duration_since_epoch);
                } else {
                        log_trace!(logger, "Max liquidity of {} is {} (already less than or equal to {})",
                                chan_descr, existing_max_msat, amount_msat);
                }
-               self.update_history_buckets(0);
+               self.update_history_buckets(0, duration_since_epoch);
        }
 
        /// Adjusts the channel liquidity balance bounds when failing to route `amount_msat` downstream.
-       fn failed_downstream<Log: Deref>(&mut self, amount_msat: u64, chan_descr: fmt::Arguments, logger: &Log) where Log::Target: Logger {
+       fn failed_downstream<Log: Deref>(
+               &mut self, amount_msat: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration, chan_descr: fmt::Arguments, logger: &Log
+       ) where Log::Target: Logger {
                let existing_min_msat = self.min_liquidity_msat();
                if amount_msat > existing_min_msat {
                        log_debug!(logger, "Setting min liquidity of {} from {} to {}", existing_min_msat, chan_descr, amount_msat);
-                       self.set_min_liquidity_msat(amount_msat);
+                       self.set_min_liquidity_msat(amount_msat, duration_since_epoch);
                } else {
                        log_trace!(logger, "Min liquidity of {} is {} (already greater than or equal to {})",
                                chan_descr, existing_min_msat, amount_msat);
                }
-               self.update_history_buckets(0);
+               self.update_history_buckets(0, duration_since_epoch);
        }
 
        /// Adjusts the channel liquidity balance bounds when successfully routing `amount_msat`.
-       fn successful<Log: Deref>(&mut self, amount_msat: u64, chan_descr: fmt::Arguments, logger: &Log) where Log::Target: Logger {
+       fn successful<Log: Deref>(&mut self,
+               amount_msat: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration, chan_descr: fmt::Arguments, logger: &Log
+       ) where Log::Target: Logger {
                let max_liquidity_msat = self.max_liquidity_msat().checked_sub(amount_msat).unwrap_or(0);
                log_debug!(logger, "Subtracting {} from max liquidity of {} (setting it to {})", amount_msat, chan_descr, max_liquidity_msat);
-               self.set_max_liquidity_msat(max_liquidity_msat);
-               self.update_history_buckets(amount_msat);
+               self.set_max_liquidity_msat(max_liquidity_msat, duration_since_epoch);
+               self.update_history_buckets(amount_msat, duration_since_epoch);
        }
 
        /// Updates the history buckets for this channel. Because the history buckets track what we now
        /// know about the channel's state *prior to our payment* (i.e. what we assume is "steady
        /// state"), we allow the caller to set an offset applied to our liquidity bounds which
        /// represents the amount of the successful payment we just made.
-       fn update_history_buckets(&mut self, bucket_offset_msat: u64) {
-               let half_lives = self.now.duration_since(*self.last_updated).as_secs()
-                       .checked_div(self.decay_params.historical_no_updates_half_life.as_secs())
-                       .map(|v| v.try_into().unwrap_or(u32::max_value())).unwrap_or(u32::max_value());
-               self.liquidity_history.min_liquidity_offset_history.time_decay_data(half_lives);
-               self.liquidity_history.max_liquidity_offset_history.time_decay_data(half_lives);
-
-               let min_liquidity_offset_msat = self.decayed_offset_msat(*self.min_liquidity_offset_msat);
-               self.liquidity_history.min_liquidity_offset_history.track_datapoint(
-                       min_liquidity_offset_msat + bucket_offset_msat, self.capacity_msat
-               );
-               let max_liquidity_offset_msat = self.decayed_offset_msat(*self.max_liquidity_offset_msat);
-               self.liquidity_history.max_liquidity_offset_history.track_datapoint(
-                       max_liquidity_offset_msat.saturating_sub(bucket_offset_msat), self.capacity_msat
+       fn update_history_buckets(&mut self, bucket_offset_msat: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
+               self.liquidity_history.track_datapoint(
+                       *self.min_liquidity_offset_msat + bucket_offset_msat,
+                       self.max_liquidity_offset_msat.saturating_sub(bucket_offset_msat),
+                       self.capacity_msat,
                );
+               *self.offset_history_last_updated = duration_since_epoch;
        }
 
        /// Adjusts the lower bound of the channel liquidity balance in this direction.
-       fn set_min_liquidity_msat(&mut self, amount_msat: u64) {
+       fn set_min_liquidity_msat(&mut self, amount_msat: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
                *self.min_liquidity_offset_msat = amount_msat;
-               *self.max_liquidity_offset_msat = if amount_msat > self.max_liquidity_msat() {
-                       0
-               } else {
-                       self.decayed_offset_msat(*self.max_liquidity_offset_msat)
-               };
-               *self.last_updated = self.now;
+               if amount_msat > self.max_liquidity_msat() {
+                       *self.max_liquidity_offset_msat = 0;
+               }
+               *self.last_updated = duration_since_epoch;
        }
 
        /// Adjusts the upper bound of the channel liquidity balance in this direction.
-       fn set_max_liquidity_msat(&mut self, amount_msat: u64) {
+       fn set_max_liquidity_msat(&mut self, amount_msat: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
                *self.max_liquidity_offset_msat = self.capacity_msat.checked_sub(amount_msat).unwrap_or(0);
-               *self.min_liquidity_offset_msat = if amount_msat < self.min_liquidity_msat() {
-                       0
-               } else {
-                       self.decayed_offset_msat(*self.min_liquidity_offset_msat)
-               };
-               *self.last_updated = self.now;
+               if amount_msat < *self.min_liquidity_offset_msat {
+                       *self.min_liquidity_offset_msat = 0;
+               }
+               *self.last_updated = duration_since_epoch;
        }
 }
 
-impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ScoreLookUp for ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime<G, L, T> where L::Target: Logger {
+impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref> ScoreLookUp for ProbabilisticScorer<G, L> where L::Target: Logger {
        type ScoreParams = ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters;
        fn channel_penalty_msat(
-               &self, short_channel_id: u64, source: &NodeId, target: &NodeId, usage: ChannelUsage, score_params: &ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters
+               &self, candidate: &CandidateRouteHop, usage: ChannelUsage, score_params: &ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters
        ) -> u64 {
-               if let Some(penalty) = score_params.manual_node_penalties.get(target) {
+               let (scid, target) = match candidate {
+                       CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop { info, short_channel_id } => {
+                               (short_channel_id, info.target())
+                       },
+                       _ => return 0,
+               };
+               let source = candidate.source();
+               if let Some(penalty) = score_params.manual_node_penalties.get(&target) {
                        return *penalty;
                }
 
@@ -1375,17 +1425,17 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ScoreLookUp for Prob
                let amount_msat = usage.amount_msat.saturating_add(usage.inflight_htlc_msat);
                let capacity_msat = usage.effective_capacity.as_msat();
                self.channel_liquidities
-                       .get(&short_channel_id)
-                       .unwrap_or(&ChannelLiquidity::new())
-                       .as_directed(source, target, capacity_msat, self.decay_params)
+                       .get(&scid)
+                       .unwrap_or(&ChannelLiquidity::new(Duration::ZERO))
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, capacity_msat)
                        .penalty_msat(amount_msat, score_params)
                        .saturating_add(anti_probing_penalty_msat)
                        .saturating_add(base_penalty_msat)
        }
 }
 
-impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ScoreUpdate for ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime<G, L, T> where L::Target: Logger {
-       fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64) {
+impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref> ScoreUpdate for ProbabilisticScorer<G, L> where L::Target: Logger {
+       fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
                let amount_msat = path.final_value_msat();
                log_trace!(self.logger, "Scoring path through to SCID {} as having failed at {} msat", short_channel_id, amount_msat);
                let network_graph = self.network_graph.read_only();
@@ -1406,15 +1456,17 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ScoreUpdate for Prob
                                if at_failed_channel {
                                        self.channel_liquidities
                                                .entry(hop.short_channel_id)
-                                               .or_insert_with(ChannelLiquidity::new)
-                                               .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat, self.decay_params)
-                                               .failed_at_channel(amount_msat, format_args!("SCID {}, towards {:?}", hop.short_channel_id, target), &self.logger);
+                                               .or_insert_with(|| ChannelLiquidity::new(duration_since_epoch))
+                                               .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat)
+                                               .failed_at_channel(amount_msat, duration_since_epoch,
+                                                       format_args!("SCID {}, towards {:?}", hop.short_channel_id, target), &self.logger);
                                } else {
                                        self.channel_liquidities
                                                .entry(hop.short_channel_id)
-                                               .or_insert_with(ChannelLiquidity::new)
-                                               .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat, self.decay_params)
-                                               .failed_downstream(amount_msat, format_args!("SCID {}, towards {:?}", hop.short_channel_id, target), &self.logger);
+                                               .or_insert_with(|| ChannelLiquidity::new(duration_since_epoch))
+                                               .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat)
+                                               .failed_downstream(amount_msat, duration_since_epoch,
+                                                       format_args!("SCID {}, towards {:?}", hop.short_channel_id, target), &self.logger);
                                }
                        } else {
                                log_debug!(self.logger, "Not able to penalize channel with SCID {} as we do not have graph info for it (likely a route-hint last-hop).",
@@ -1424,7 +1476,7 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ScoreUpdate for Prob
                }
        }
 
-       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &Path) {
+       fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &Path, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
                let amount_msat = path.final_value_msat();
                log_trace!(self.logger, "Scoring path through SCID {} as having succeeded at {} msat.",
                        path.hops.split_last().map(|(hop, _)| hop.short_channel_id).unwrap_or(0), amount_msat);
@@ -1440,9 +1492,10 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ScoreUpdate for Prob
                                let capacity_msat = channel.effective_capacity().as_msat();
                                self.channel_liquidities
                                        .entry(hop.short_channel_id)
-                                       .or_insert_with(ChannelLiquidity::new)
-                                       .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat, self.decay_params)
-                                       .successful(amount_msat, format_args!("SCID {}, towards {:?}", hop.short_channel_id, target), &self.logger);
+                                       .or_insert_with(|| ChannelLiquidity::new(duration_since_epoch))
+                                       .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat)
+                                       .successful(amount_msat, duration_since_epoch,
+                                               format_args!("SCID {}, towards {:?}", hop.short_channel_id, target), &self.logger);
                        } else {
                                log_debug!(self.logger, "Not able to learn for channel with SCID {} as we do not have graph info for it (likely a route-hint last-hop).",
                                        hop.short_channel_id);
@@ -1450,329 +1503,52 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ScoreUpdate for Prob
                }
        }
 
-       fn probe_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64) {
-               self.payment_path_failed(path, short_channel_id)
+       fn probe_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
+               self.payment_path_failed(path, short_channel_id, duration_since_epoch)
        }
 
-       fn probe_successful(&mut self, path: &Path) {
-               self.payment_path_failed(path, u64::max_value())
+       fn probe_successful(&mut self, path: &Path, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
+               self.payment_path_failed(path, u64::max_value(), duration_since_epoch)
        }
-}
 
-#[cfg(c_bindings)]
-impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> Score for ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime<G, L, T>
-where L::Target: Logger {}
+       fn decay_liquidity_certainty(&mut self, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
+               let decay_params = self.decay_params;
+               self.channel_liquidities.retain(|_scid, liquidity| {
+                       liquidity.min_liquidity_offset_msat =
+                               liquidity.decayed_offset(liquidity.min_liquidity_offset_msat, duration_since_epoch, decay_params);
+                       liquidity.max_liquidity_offset_msat =
+                               liquidity.decayed_offset(liquidity.max_liquidity_offset_msat, duration_since_epoch, decay_params);
+                       liquidity.last_updated = duration_since_epoch;
 
-mod approx {
-       const BITS: u32 = 64;
-       const HIGHEST_BIT: u32 = BITS - 1;
-       const LOWER_BITS: u32 = 6;
-       pub(super) const LOWER_BITS_BOUND: u64 = 1 << LOWER_BITS;
-       const LOWER_BITMASK: u64 = (1 << LOWER_BITS) - 1;
-
-       /// Look-up table for `log10(x) * 2048` where row `i` is used for each `x` having `i` as the
-       /// most significant bit. The next 4 bits of `x`, if applicable, are used for the second index.
-       const LOG10_TIMES_2048: [[u16; (LOWER_BITS_BOUND) as usize]; BITS as usize] = [
-               [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
-                       0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
-                       0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
-                       0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
-               [617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617,
-                       617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617, 617,
-                       977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977,
-                       977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977, 977],
-               [1233, 1233, 1233, 1233, 1233, 1233, 1233, 1233, 1233, 1233, 1233, 1233, 1233, 1233, 1233, 1233,
-                       1431, 1431, 1431, 1431, 1431, 1431, 1431, 1431, 1431, 1431, 1431, 1431, 1431, 1431, 1431, 1431,
-                       1594, 1594, 1594, 1594, 1594, 1594, 1594, 1594, 1594, 1594, 1594, 1594, 1594, 1594, 1594, 1594,
-                       1731, 1731, 1731, 1731, 1731, 1731, 1731, 1731, 1731, 1731, 1731, 1731, 1731, 1731, 1731, 1731],
-               [1850, 1850, 1850, 1850, 1850, 1850, 1850, 1850, 1954, 1954, 1954, 1954, 1954, 1954, 1954, 1954,
-                       2048, 2048, 2048, 2048, 2048, 2048, 2048, 2048, 2133, 2133, 2133, 2133, 2133, 2133, 2133, 2133,
-                       2210, 2210, 2210, 2210, 2210, 2210, 2210, 2210, 2281, 2281, 2281, 2281, 2281, 2281, 2281, 2281,
-                       2347, 2347, 2347, 2347, 2347, 2347, 2347, 2347, 2409, 2409, 2409, 2409, 2409, 2409, 2409, 2409],
-               [2466, 2466, 2466, 2466, 2520, 2520, 2520, 2520, 2571, 2571, 2571, 2571, 2619, 2619, 2619, 2619,
-                       2665, 2665, 2665, 2665, 2708, 2708, 2708, 2708, 2749, 2749, 2749, 2749, 2789, 2789, 2789, 2789,
-                       2827, 2827, 2827, 2827, 2863, 2863, 2863, 2863, 2898, 2898, 2898, 2898, 2931, 2931, 2931, 2931,
-                       2964, 2964, 2964, 2964, 2995, 2995, 2995, 2995, 3025, 3025, 3025, 3025, 3054, 3054, 3054, 3054],
-               [3083, 3083, 3110, 3110, 3136, 3136, 3162, 3162, 3187, 3187, 3212, 3212, 3235, 3235, 3259, 3259,
-                       3281, 3281, 3303, 3303, 3324, 3324, 3345, 3345, 3366, 3366, 3386, 3386, 3405, 3405, 3424, 3424,
-                       3443, 3443, 3462, 3462, 3479, 3479, 3497, 3497, 3514, 3514, 3531, 3531, 3548, 3548, 3564, 3564,
-                       3580, 3580, 3596, 3596, 3612, 3612, 3627, 3627, 3642, 3642, 3656, 3656, 3671, 3671, 3685, 3685],
-               [3699, 3713, 3726, 3740, 3753, 3766, 3779, 3791, 3804, 3816, 3828, 3840, 3852, 3864, 3875, 3886,
-                       3898, 3909, 3919, 3930, 3941, 3951, 3962, 3972, 3982, 3992, 4002, 4012, 4022, 4031, 4041, 4050,
-                       4060, 4069, 4078, 4087, 4096, 4105, 4114, 4122, 4131, 4139, 4148, 4156, 4164, 4173, 4181, 4189,
-                       4197, 4205, 4213, 4220, 4228, 4236, 4243, 4251, 4258, 4266, 4273, 4280, 4287, 4294, 4302, 4309],
-               [4316, 4329, 4343, 4356, 4369, 4382, 4395, 4408, 4420, 4433, 4445, 4457, 4468, 4480, 4492, 4503,
-                       4514, 4525, 4536, 4547, 4557, 4568, 4578, 4589, 4599, 4609, 4619, 4629, 4638, 4648, 4657, 4667,
-                       4676, 4685, 4695, 4704, 4713, 4721, 4730, 4739, 4747, 4756, 4764, 4773, 4781, 4789, 4797, 4805,
-                       4813, 4821, 4829, 4837, 4845, 4852, 4860, 4867, 4875, 4882, 4889, 4897, 4904, 4911, 4918, 4925],
-               [4932, 4946, 4959, 4973, 4986, 4999, 5012, 5024, 5037, 5049, 5061, 5073, 5085, 5097, 5108, 5119,
-                       5131, 5142, 5153, 5163, 5174, 5184, 5195, 5205, 5215, 5225, 5235, 5245, 5255, 5264, 5274, 5283,
-                       5293, 5302, 5311, 5320, 5329, 5338, 5347, 5355, 5364, 5372, 5381, 5389, 5397, 5406, 5414, 5422,
-                       5430, 5438, 5446, 5453, 5461, 5469, 5476, 5484, 5491, 5499, 5506, 5513, 5520, 5527, 5535, 5542],
-               [5549, 5562, 5576, 5589, 5603, 5615, 5628, 5641, 5653, 5666, 5678, 5690, 5701, 5713, 5725, 5736,
-                       5747, 5758, 5769, 5780, 5790, 5801, 5811, 5822, 5832, 5842, 5852, 5862, 5871, 5881, 5890, 5900,
-                       5909, 5918, 5928, 5937, 5946, 5954, 5963, 5972, 5980, 5989, 5997, 6006, 6014, 6022, 6030, 6038,
-                       6046, 6054, 6062, 6070, 6078, 6085, 6093, 6100, 6108, 6115, 6122, 6130, 6137, 6144, 6151, 6158],
-               [6165, 6179, 6192, 6206, 6219, 6232, 6245, 6257, 6270, 6282, 6294, 6306, 6318, 6330, 6341, 6352,
-                       6364, 6375, 6386, 6396, 6407, 6417, 6428, 6438, 6448, 6458, 6468, 6478, 6488, 6497, 6507, 6516,
-                       6526, 6535, 6544, 6553, 6562, 6571, 6580, 6588, 6597, 6605, 6614, 6622, 6630, 6639, 6647, 6655,
-                       6663, 6671, 6679, 6686, 6694, 6702, 6709, 6717, 6724, 6732, 6739, 6746, 6753, 6761, 6768, 6775],
-               [6782, 6795, 6809, 6822, 6836, 6849, 6861, 6874, 6886, 6899, 6911, 6923, 6934, 6946, 6958, 6969,
-                       6980, 6991, 7002, 7013, 7023, 7034, 7044, 7055, 7065, 7075, 7085, 7095, 7104, 7114, 7124, 7133,
-                       7142, 7151, 7161, 7170, 7179, 7187, 7196, 7205, 7213, 7222, 7230, 7239, 7247, 7255, 7263, 7271,
-                       7279, 7287, 7295, 7303, 7311, 7318, 7326, 7333, 7341, 7348, 7355, 7363, 7370, 7377, 7384, 7391],
-               [7398, 7412, 7425, 7439, 7452, 7465, 7478, 7490, 7503, 7515, 7527, 7539, 7551, 7563, 7574, 7585,
-                       7597, 7608, 7619, 7629, 7640, 7651, 7661, 7671, 7681, 7691, 7701, 7711, 7721, 7731, 7740, 7749,
-                       7759, 7768, 7777, 7786, 7795, 7804, 7813, 7821, 7830, 7838, 7847, 7855, 7864, 7872, 7880, 7888,
-                       7896, 7904, 7912, 7919, 7927, 7935, 7942, 7950, 7957, 7965, 7972, 7979, 7986, 7994, 8001, 8008],
-               [8015, 8028, 8042, 8055, 8069, 8082, 8094, 8107, 8119, 8132, 8144, 8156, 8167, 8179, 8191, 8202,
-                       8213, 8224, 8235, 8246, 8256, 8267, 8277, 8288, 8298, 8308, 8318, 8328, 8337, 8347, 8357, 8366,
-                       8375, 8384, 8394, 8403, 8412, 8420, 8429, 8438, 8446, 8455, 8463, 8472, 8480, 8488, 8496, 8504,
-                       8512, 8520, 8528, 8536, 8544, 8551, 8559, 8566, 8574, 8581, 8588, 8596, 8603, 8610, 8617, 8624],
-               [8631, 8645, 8659, 8672, 8685, 8698, 8711, 8723, 8736, 8748, 8760, 8772, 8784, 8796, 8807, 8818,
-                       8830, 8841, 8852, 8862, 8873, 8884, 8894, 8904, 8914, 8924, 8934, 8944, 8954, 8964, 8973, 8982,
-                       8992, 9001, 9010, 9019, 9028, 9037, 9046, 9054, 9063, 9071, 9080, 9088, 9097, 9105, 9113, 9121,
-                       9129, 9137, 9145, 9152, 9160, 9168, 9175, 9183, 9190, 9198, 9205, 9212, 9219, 9227, 9234, 9241],
-               [9248, 9261, 9275, 9288, 9302, 9315, 9327, 9340, 9352, 9365, 9377, 9389, 9400, 9412, 9424, 9435,
-                       9446, 9457, 9468, 9479, 9490, 9500, 9510, 9521, 9531, 9541, 9551, 9561, 9570, 9580, 9590, 9599,
-                       9608, 9617, 9627, 9636, 9645, 9653, 9662, 9671, 9679, 9688, 9696, 9705, 9713, 9721, 9729, 9737,
-                       9745, 9753, 9761, 9769, 9777, 9784, 9792, 9799, 9807, 9814, 9821, 9829, 9836, 9843, 9850, 9857],
-               [9864, 9878, 9892, 9905, 9918, 9931, 9944, 9956, 9969, 9981, 9993, 10005, 10017, 10029, 10040, 10051,
-                       10063, 10074, 10085, 10095, 10106, 10117, 10127, 10137, 10147, 10157, 10167, 10177, 10187, 10197, 10206, 10215,
-                       10225, 10234, 10243, 10252, 10261, 10270, 10279, 10287, 10296, 10304, 10313, 10321, 10330, 10338, 10346, 10354,
-                       10362, 10370, 10378, 10385, 10393, 10401, 10408, 10416, 10423, 10431, 10438, 10445, 10452, 10460, 10467, 10474],
-               [10481, 10494, 10508, 10521, 10535, 10548, 10560, 10573, 10585, 10598, 10610, 10622, 10634, 10645, 10657, 10668,
-                       10679, 10690, 10701, 10712, 10723, 10733, 10743, 10754, 10764, 10774, 10784, 10794, 10803, 10813, 10823, 10832,
-                       10841, 10851, 10860, 10869, 10878, 10886, 10895, 10904, 10912, 10921, 10929, 10938, 10946, 10954, 10962, 10970,
-                       10978, 10986, 10994, 11002, 11010, 11017, 11025, 11032, 11040, 11047, 11054, 11062, 11069, 11076, 11083, 11090],
-               [11097, 11111, 11125, 11138, 11151, 11164, 11177, 11189, 11202, 11214, 11226, 11238, 11250, 11262, 11273, 11284,
-                       11296, 11307, 11318, 11328, 11339, 11350, 11360, 11370, 11380, 11390, 11400, 11410, 11420, 11430, 11439, 11448,
-                       11458, 11467, 11476, 11485, 11494, 11503, 11512, 11520, 11529, 11538, 11546, 11554, 11563, 11571, 11579, 11587,
-                       11595, 11603, 11611, 11618, 11626, 11634, 11641, 11649, 11656, 11664, 11671, 11678, 11685, 11693, 11700, 11707],
-               [11714, 11727, 11741, 11754, 11768, 11781, 11793, 11806, 11818, 11831, 11843, 11855, 11867, 11878, 11890, 11901,
-                       11912, 11923, 11934, 11945, 11956, 11966, 11976, 11987, 11997, 12007, 12017, 12027, 12036, 12046, 12056, 12065,
-                       12074, 12084, 12093, 12102, 12111, 12119, 12128, 12137, 12146, 12154, 12162, 12171, 12179, 12187, 12195, 12203,
-                       12211, 12219, 12227, 12235, 12243, 12250, 12258, 12265, 12273, 12280, 12287, 12295, 12302, 12309, 12316, 12323],
-               [12330, 12344, 12358, 12371, 12384, 12397, 12410, 12423, 12435, 12447, 12459, 12471, 12483, 12495, 12506, 12517,
-                       12529, 12540, 12551, 12561, 12572, 12583, 12593, 12603, 12613, 12623, 12633, 12643, 12653, 12663, 12672, 12682,
-                       12691, 12700, 12709, 12718, 12727, 12736, 12745, 12753, 12762, 12771, 12779, 12787, 12796, 12804, 12812, 12820,
-                       12828, 12836, 12844, 12851, 12859, 12867, 12874, 12882, 12889, 12897, 12904, 12911, 12918, 12926, 12933, 12940],
-               [12947, 12960, 12974, 12987, 13001, 13014, 13026, 13039, 13051, 13064, 13076, 13088, 13100, 13111, 13123, 13134,
-                       13145, 13156, 13167, 13178, 13189, 13199, 13209, 13220, 13230, 13240, 13250, 13260, 13269, 13279, 13289, 13298,
-                       13307, 13317, 13326, 13335, 13344, 13352, 13361, 13370, 13379, 13387, 13395, 13404, 13412, 13420, 13428, 13436,
-                       13444, 13452, 13460, 13468, 13476, 13483, 13491, 13498, 13506, 13513, 13521, 13528, 13535, 13542, 13549, 13556],
-               [13563, 13577, 13591, 13604, 13617, 13630, 13643, 13656, 13668, 13680, 13692, 13704, 13716, 13728, 13739, 13750,
-                       13762, 13773, 13784, 13794, 13805, 13816, 13826, 13836, 13846, 13857, 13866, 13876, 13886, 13896, 13905, 13915,
-                       13924, 13933, 13942, 13951, 13960, 13969, 13978, 13986, 13995, 14004, 14012, 14020, 14029, 14037, 14045, 14053,
-                       14061, 14069, 14077, 14084, 14092, 14100, 14107, 14115, 14122, 14130, 14137, 14144, 14151, 14159, 14166, 14173],
-               [14180, 14194, 14207, 14220, 14234, 14247, 14259, 14272, 14284, 14297, 14309, 14321, 14333, 14344, 14356, 14367,
-                       14378, 14389, 14400, 14411, 14422, 14432, 14443, 14453, 14463, 14473, 14483, 14493, 14502, 14512, 14522, 14531,
-                       14540, 14550, 14559, 14568, 14577, 14586, 14594, 14603, 14612, 14620, 14628, 14637, 14645, 14653, 14661, 14669,
-                       14677, 14685, 14693, 14701, 14709, 14716, 14724, 14731, 14739, 14746, 14754, 14761, 14768, 14775, 14782, 14789],
-               [14796, 14810, 14824, 14837, 14850, 14863, 14876, 14889, 14901, 14913, 14925, 14937, 14949, 14961, 14972, 14984,
-                       14995, 15006, 15017, 15027, 15038, 15049, 15059, 15069, 15079, 15090, 15099, 15109, 15119, 15129, 15138, 15148,
-                       15157, 15166, 15175, 15184, 15193, 15202, 15211, 15219, 15228, 15237, 15245, 15253, 15262, 15270, 15278, 15286,
-                       15294, 15302, 15310, 15317, 15325, 15333, 15340, 15348, 15355, 15363, 15370, 15377, 15384, 15392, 15399, 15406],
-               [15413, 15427, 15440, 15453, 15467, 15480, 15492, 15505, 15517, 15530, 15542, 15554, 15566, 15577, 15589, 15600,
-                       15611, 15622, 15633, 15644, 15655, 15665, 15676, 15686, 15696, 15706, 15716, 15726, 15736, 15745, 15755, 15764,
-                       15773, 15783, 15792, 15801, 15810, 15819, 15827, 15836, 15845, 15853, 15862, 15870, 15878, 15886, 15894, 15903,
-                       15910, 15918, 15926, 15934, 15942, 15949, 15957, 15964, 15972, 15979, 15987, 15994, 16001, 16008, 16015, 16022],
-               [16029, 16043, 16057, 16070, 16083, 16096, 16109, 16122, 16134, 16146, 16158, 16170, 16182, 16194, 16205, 16217,
-                       16228, 16239, 16250, 16260, 16271, 16282, 16292, 16302, 16312, 16323, 16332, 16342, 16352, 16362, 16371, 16381,
-                       16390, 16399, 16408, 16417, 16426, 16435, 16444, 16452, 16461, 16470, 16478, 16486, 16495, 16503, 16511, 16519,
-                       16527, 16535, 16543, 16550, 16558, 16566, 16573, 16581, 16588, 16596, 16603, 16610, 16618, 16625, 16632, 16639],
-               [16646, 16660, 16673, 16686, 16700, 16713, 16725, 16738, 16751, 16763, 16775, 16787, 16799, 16810, 16822, 16833,
-                       16844, 16855, 16866, 16877, 16888, 16898, 16909, 16919, 16929, 16939, 16949, 16959, 16969, 16978, 16988, 16997,
-                       17006, 17016, 17025, 17034, 17043, 17052, 17060, 17069, 17078, 17086, 17095, 17103, 17111, 17119, 17127, 17136,
-                       17143, 17151, 17159, 17167, 17175, 17182, 17190, 17197, 17205, 17212, 17220, 17227, 17234, 17241, 17248, 17255],
-               [17262, 17276, 17290, 17303, 17316, 17329, 17342, 17355, 17367, 17379, 17391, 17403, 17415, 17427, 17438, 17450,
-                       17461, 17472, 17483, 17493, 17504, 17515, 17525, 17535, 17546, 17556, 17565, 17575, 17585, 17595, 17604, 17614,
-                       17623, 17632, 17641, 17650, 17659, 17668, 17677, 17685, 17694, 17703, 17711, 17719, 17728, 17736, 17744, 17752,
-                       17760, 17768, 17776, 17784, 17791, 17799, 17806, 17814, 17821, 17829, 17836, 17843, 17851, 17858, 17865, 17872],
-               [17879, 17893, 17906, 17920, 17933, 17946, 17958, 17971, 17984, 17996, 18008, 18020, 18032, 18043, 18055, 18066,
-                       18077, 18088, 18099, 18110, 18121, 18131, 18142, 18152, 18162, 18172, 18182, 18192, 18202, 18211, 18221, 18230,
-                       18239, 18249, 18258, 18267, 18276, 18285, 18293, 18302, 18311, 18319, 18328, 18336, 18344, 18352, 18360, 18369,
-                       18377, 18384, 18392, 18400, 18408, 18415, 18423, 18430, 18438, 18445, 18453, 18460, 18467, 18474, 18481, 18488],
-               [18495, 18509, 18523, 18536, 18549, 18562, 18575, 18588, 18600, 18612, 18624, 18636, 18648, 18660, 18671, 18683,
-                       18694, 18705, 18716, 18726, 18737, 18748, 18758, 18768, 18779, 18789, 18799, 18808, 18818, 18828, 18837, 18847,
-                       18856, 18865, 18874, 18883, 18892, 18901, 18910, 18919, 18927, 18936, 18944, 18952, 18961, 18969, 18977, 18985,
-                       18993, 19001, 19009, 19017, 19024, 19032, 19039, 19047, 19054, 19062, 19069, 19076, 19084, 19091, 19098, 19105],
-               [19112, 19126, 19139, 19153, 19166, 19179, 19191, 19204, 19217, 19229, 19241, 19253, 19265, 19276, 19288, 19299,
-                       19310, 19321, 19332, 19343, 19354, 19364, 19375, 19385, 19395, 19405, 19415, 19425, 19435, 19444, 19454, 19463,
-                       19472, 19482, 19491, 19500, 19509, 19518, 19526, 19535, 19544, 19552, 19561, 19569, 19577, 19585, 19594, 19602,
-                       19610, 19617, 19625, 19633, 19641, 19648, 19656, 19663, 19671, 19678, 19686, 19693, 19700, 19707, 19714, 19721],
-               [19728, 19742, 19756, 19769, 19782, 19795, 19808, 19821, 19833, 19845, 19857, 19869, 19881, 19893, 19904, 19916,
-                       19927, 19938, 19949, 19960, 19970, 19981, 19991, 20001, 20012, 20022, 20032, 20041, 20051, 20061, 20070, 20080,
-                       20089, 20098, 20107, 20116, 20125, 20134, 20143, 20152, 20160, 20169, 20177, 20185, 20194, 20202, 20210, 20218,
-                       20226, 20234, 20242, 20250, 20257, 20265, 20272, 20280, 20287, 20295, 20302, 20309, 20317, 20324, 20331, 20338],
-               [20345, 20359, 20372, 20386, 20399, 20412, 20425, 20437, 20450, 20462, 20474, 20486, 20498, 20509, 20521, 20532,
-                       20543, 20554, 20565, 20576, 20587, 20597, 20608, 20618, 20628, 20638, 20648, 20658, 20668, 20677, 20687, 20696,
-                       20705, 20715, 20724, 20733, 20742, 20751, 20759, 20768, 20777, 20785, 20794, 20802, 20810, 20818, 20827, 20835,
-                       20843, 20850, 20858, 20866, 20874, 20881, 20889, 20896, 20904, 20911, 20919, 20926, 20933, 20940, 20947, 20954],
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-                       21160, 21171, 21182, 21193, 21203, 21214, 21224, 21234, 21245, 21255, 21265, 21274, 21284, 21294, 21303, 21313,
-                       21322, 21331, 21340, 21349, 21358, 21367, 21376, 21385, 21393, 21402, 21410, 21418, 21427, 21435, 21443, 21451,
-                       21459, 21467, 21475, 21483, 21490, 21498, 21505, 21513, 21520, 21528, 21535, 21542, 21550, 21557, 21564, 21571],
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-                       21776, 21787, 21798, 21809, 21820, 21830, 21841, 21851, 21861, 21871, 21881, 21891, 21901, 21910, 21920, 21929,
-                       21938, 21948, 21957, 21966, 21975, 21984, 21992, 22001, 22010, 22018, 22027, 22035, 22043, 22051, 22060, 22068,
-                       22076, 22083, 22091, 22099, 22107, 22114, 22122, 22129, 22137, 22144, 22152, 22159, 22166, 22173, 22180, 22187],
-               [22194, 22208, 22222, 22235, 22248, 22261, 22274, 22287, 22299, 22311, 22323, 22335, 22347, 22359, 22370, 22382,
-                       22393, 22404, 22415, 22426, 22436, 22447, 22457, 22467, 22478, 22488, 22498, 22507, 22517, 22527, 22536, 22546,
-                       22555, 22564, 22573, 22582, 22591, 22600, 22609, 22618, 22626, 22635, 22643, 22651, 22660, 22668, 22676, 22684,
-                       22692, 22700, 22708, 22716, 22723, 22731, 22738, 22746, 22753, 22761, 22768, 22775, 22783, 22790, 22797, 22804],
-               [22811, 22825, 22838, 22852, 22865, 22878, 22891, 22903, 22916, 22928, 22940, 22952, 22964, 22975, 22987, 22998,
-                       23009, 23020, 23031, 23042, 23053, 23063, 23074, 23084, 23094, 23104, 23114, 23124, 23134, 23143, 23153, 23162,
-                       23171, 23181, 23190, 23199, 23208, 23217, 23225, 23234, 23243, 23251, 23260, 23268, 23276, 23284, 23293, 23301,
-                       23309, 23316, 23324, 23332, 23340, 23347, 23355, 23363, 23370, 23377, 23385, 23392, 23399, 23406, 23413, 23420],
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-                       23626, 23637, 23648, 23659, 23669, 23680, 23690, 23700, 23711, 23721, 23731, 23740, 23750, 23760, 23769, 23779,
-                       23788, 23797, 23806, 23815, 23824, 23833, 23842, 23851, 23859, 23868, 23876, 23884, 23893, 23901, 23909, 23917,
-                       23925, 23933, 23941, 23949, 23956, 23964, 23972, 23979, 23986, 23994, 24001, 24008, 24016, 24023, 24030, 24037],
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-                       24405, 24414, 24423, 24432, 24441, 24450, 24458, 24467, 24476, 24484, 24493, 24501, 24509, 24517, 24526, 24534,
-                       24542, 24550, 24557, 24565, 24573, 24580, 24588, 24596, 24603, 24610, 24618, 24625, 24632, 24639, 24646, 24653],
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-                       25021, 25030, 25039, 25048, 25057, 25066, 25075, 25084, 25092, 25101, 25109, 25117, 25126, 25134, 25142, 25150,
-                       25158, 25166, 25174, 25182, 25189, 25197, 25205, 25212, 25219, 25227, 25234, 25241, 25249, 25256, 25263, 25270],
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-                       25638, 25647, 25656, 25665, 25674, 25683, 25691, 25700, 25709, 25717, 25726, 25734, 25742, 25750, 25759, 25767,
-                       25775, 25783, 25790, 25798, 25806, 25813, 25821, 25829, 25836, 25843, 25851, 25858, 25865, 25872, 25879, 25886],
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-                       26092, 26103, 26114, 26125, 26135, 26146, 26156, 26166, 26177, 26187, 26197, 26206, 26216, 26226, 26235, 26245,
-                       26254, 26263, 26272, 26281, 26290, 26299, 26308, 26317, 26325, 26334, 26342, 26351, 26359, 26367, 26375, 26383,
-                       26391, 26399, 26407, 26415, 26422, 26430, 26438, 26445, 26453, 26460, 26467, 26474, 26482, 26489, 26496, 26503],
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-                       26708, 26719, 26730, 26741, 26752, 26762, 26773, 26783, 26793, 26803, 26813, 26823, 26833, 26842, 26852, 26861,
-                       26871, 26880, 26889, 26898, 26907, 26916, 26924, 26933, 26942, 26950, 26959, 26967, 26975, 26983, 26992, 27000,
-                       27008, 27016, 27023, 27031, 27039, 27046, 27054, 27062, 27069, 27076, 27084, 27091, 27098, 27105, 27112, 27119],
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-                       27325, 27336, 27347, 27358, 27368, 27379, 27389, 27399, 27410, 27420, 27430, 27439, 27449, 27459, 27468, 27478,
-                       27487, 27496, 27505, 27514, 27523, 27532, 27541, 27550, 27558, 27567, 27575, 27584, 27592, 27600, 27608, 27616,
-                       27624, 27632, 27640, 27648, 27655, 27663, 27671, 27678, 27686, 27693, 27700, 27707, 27715, 27722, 27729, 27736],
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-                       27941, 27952, 27963, 27974, 27985, 27995, 28006, 28016, 28026, 28036, 28046, 28056, 28066, 28075, 28085, 28094,
-                       28104, 28113, 28122, 28131, 28140, 28149, 28157, 28166, 28175, 28183, 28192, 28200, 28208, 28217, 28225, 28233,
-                       28241, 28249, 28256, 28264, 28272, 28280, 28287, 28295, 28302, 28309, 28317, 28324, 28331, 28338, 28345, 28352],
-               [28359, 28373, 28387, 28400, 28413, 28426, 28439, 28452, 28464, 28476, 28489, 28501, 28512, 28524, 28535, 28547,
-                       28558, 28569, 28580, 28591, 28601, 28612, 28622, 28633, 28643, 28653, 28663, 28672, 28682, 28692, 28701, 28711,
-                       28720, 28729, 28738, 28747, 28756, 28765, 28774, 28783, 28791, 28800, 28808, 28817, 28825, 28833, 28841, 28849,
-                       28857, 28865, 28873, 28881, 28888, 28896, 28904, 28911, 28919, 28926, 28933, 28941, 28948, 28955, 28962, 28969],
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-                       29174, 29185, 29196, 29207, 29218, 29228, 29239, 29249, 29259, 29269, 29279, 29289, 29299, 29308, 29318, 29327,
-                       29337, 29346, 29355, 29364, 29373, 29382, 29390, 29399, 29408, 29416, 29425, 29433, 29441, 29450, 29458, 29466,
-                       29474, 29482, 29489, 29497, 29505, 29513, 29520, 29528, 29535, 29542, 29550, 29557, 29564, 29571, 29578, 29585],
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-                       29791, 29802, 29813, 29824, 29834, 29845, 29855, 29866, 29876, 29886, 29896, 29906, 29915, 29925, 29934, 29944,
-                       29953, 29962, 29971, 29980, 29989, 29998, 30007, 30016, 30024, 30033, 30041, 30050, 30058, 30066, 30074, 30082,
-                       30090, 30098, 30106, 30114, 30121, 30129, 30137, 30144, 30152, 30159, 30166, 30174, 30181, 30188, 30195, 30202],
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-                       30407, 30418, 30429, 30440, 30451, 30461, 30472, 30482, 30492, 30502, 30512, 30522, 30532, 30541, 30551, 30560,
-                       30570, 30579, 30588, 30597, 30606, 30615, 30624, 30632, 30641, 30649, 30658, 30666, 30674, 30683, 30691, 30699,
-                       30707, 30715, 30722, 30730, 30738, 30746, 30753, 30761, 30768, 30775, 30783, 30790, 30797, 30804, 30811, 30818],
-               [30825, 30839, 30853, 30866, 30879, 30892, 30905, 30918, 30930, 30943, 30955, 30967, 30978, 30990, 31001, 31013,
-                       31024, 31035, 31046, 31057, 31067, 31078, 31088, 31099, 31109, 31119, 31129, 31139, 31148, 31158, 31167, 31177,
-                       31186, 31195, 31204, 31213, 31222, 31231, 31240, 31249, 31257, 31266, 31274, 31283, 31291, 31299, 31307, 31315,
-                       31323, 31331, 31339, 31347, 31354, 31362, 31370, 31377, 31385, 31392, 31399, 31407, 31414, 31421, 31428, 31435],
-               [31442, 31456, 31469, 31483, 31496, 31509, 31522, 31534, 31547, 31559, 31571, 31583, 31595, 31606, 31618, 31629,
-                       31640, 31652, 31662, 31673, 31684, 31694, 31705, 31715, 31725, 31735, 31745, 31755, 31765, 31774, 31784, 31793,
-                       31803, 31812, 31821, 31830, 31839, 31848, 31857, 31865, 31874, 31882, 31891, 31899, 31907, 31916, 31924, 31932,
-                       31940, 31948, 31955, 31963, 31971, 31979, 31986, 31994, 32001, 32008, 32016, 32023, 32030, 32037, 32044, 32052],
-               [32058, 32072, 32086, 32099, 32112, 32125, 32138, 32151, 32163, 32176, 32188, 32200, 32211, 32223, 32234, 32246,
-                       32257, 32268, 32279, 32290, 32300, 32311, 32321, 32332, 32342, 32352, 32362, 32372, 32381, 32391, 32400, 32410,
-                       32419, 32428, 32437, 32446, 32455, 32464, 32473, 32482, 32490, 32499, 32507, 32516, 32524, 32532, 32540, 32548,
-                       32556, 32564, 32572, 32580, 32587, 32595, 32603, 32610, 32618, 32625, 32632, 32640, 32647, 32654, 32661, 32668],
-               [32675, 32689, 32702, 32716, 32729, 32742, 32755, 32767, 32780, 32792, 32804, 32816, 32828, 32839, 32851, 32862,
-                       32873, 32885, 32895, 32906, 32917, 32927, 32938, 32948, 32958, 32968, 32978, 32988, 32998, 33007, 33017, 33026,
-                       33036, 33045, 33054, 33063, 33072, 33081, 33090, 33098, 33107, 33115, 33124, 33132, 33140, 33149, 33157, 33165,
-                       33173, 33181, 33188, 33196, 33204, 33212, 33219, 33227, 33234, 33241, 33249, 33256, 33263, 33270, 33278, 33285],
-               [33292, 33305, 33319, 33332, 33345, 33358, 33371, 33384, 33396, 33409, 33421, 33433, 33444, 33456, 33467, 33479,
-                       33490, 33501, 33512, 33523, 33533, 33544, 33554, 33565, 33575, 33585, 33595, 33605, 33614, 33624, 33633, 33643,
-                       33652, 33661, 33670, 33680, 33688, 33697, 33706, 33715, 33723, 33732, 33740, 33749, 33757, 33765, 33773, 33781,
-                       33789, 33797, 33805, 33813, 33820, 33828, 33836, 33843, 33851, 33858, 33865, 33873, 33880, 33887, 33894, 33901],
-               [33908, 33922, 33935, 33949, 33962, 33975, 33988, 34000, 34013, 34025, 34037, 34049, 34061, 34072, 34084, 34095,
-                       34106, 34118, 34128, 34139, 34150, 34160, 34171, 34181, 34191, 34201, 34211, 34221, 34231, 34240, 34250, 34259,
-                       34269, 34278, 34287, 34296, 34305, 34314, 34323, 34331, 34340, 34348, 34357, 34365, 34373, 34382, 34390, 34398,
-                       34406, 34414, 34422, 34429, 34437, 34445, 34452, 34460, 34467, 34475, 34482, 34489, 34496, 34503, 34511, 34518],
-               [34525, 34538, 34552, 34565, 34578, 34591, 34604, 34617, 34629, 34642, 34654, 34666, 34677, 34689, 34700, 34712,
-                       34723, 34734, 34745, 34756, 34766, 34777, 34787, 34798, 34808, 34818, 34828, 34838, 34847, 34857, 34866, 34876,
-                       34885, 34894, 34904, 34913, 34921, 34930, 34939, 34948, 34956, 34965, 34973, 34982, 34990, 34998, 35006, 35014,
-                       35022, 35030, 35038, 35046, 35053, 35061, 35069, 35076, 35084, 35091, 35098, 35106, 35113, 35120, 35127, 35134],
-               [35141, 35155, 35168, 35182, 35195, 35208, 35221, 35233, 35246, 35258, 35270, 35282, 35294, 35306, 35317, 35328,
-                       35340, 35351, 35361, 35372, 35383, 35393, 35404, 35414, 35424, 35434, 35444, 35454, 35464, 35473, 35483, 35492,
-                       35502, 35511, 35520, 35529, 35538, 35547, 35556, 35564, 35573, 35581, 35590, 35598, 35606, 35615, 35623, 35631,
-                       35639, 35647, 35655, 35662, 35670, 35678, 35685, 35693, 35700, 35708, 35715, 35722, 35729, 35736, 35744, 35751],
-               [35758, 35771, 35785, 35798, 35811, 35824, 35837, 35850, 35862, 35875, 35887, 35899, 35910, 35922, 35934, 35945,
-                       35956, 35967, 35978, 35989, 35999, 36010, 36020, 36031, 36041, 36051, 36061, 36071, 36080, 36090, 36099, 36109,
-                       36118, 36127, 36137, 36146, 36154, 36163, 36172, 36181, 36189, 36198, 36206, 36215, 36223, 36231, 36239, 36247,
-                       36255, 36263, 36271, 36279, 36287, 36294, 36302, 36309, 36317, 36324, 36331, 36339, 36346, 36353, 36360, 36367],
-               [36374, 36388, 36401, 36415, 36428, 36441, 36454, 36466, 36479, 36491, 36503, 36515, 36527, 36539, 36550, 36561,
-                       36573, 36584, 36594, 36605, 36616, 36626, 36637, 36647, 36657, 36667, 36677, 36687, 36697, 36706, 36716, 36725,
-                       36735, 36744, 36753, 36762, 36771, 36780, 36789, 36797, 36806, 36814, 36823, 36831, 36839, 36848, 36856, 36864,
-                       36872, 36880, 36888, 36895, 36903, 36911, 36918, 36926, 36933, 36941, 36948, 36955, 36962, 36969, 36977, 36984],
-               [36991, 37004, 37018, 37031, 37044, 37057, 37070, 37083, 37095, 37108, 37120, 37132, 37143, 37155, 37167, 37178,
-                       37189, 37200, 37211, 37222, 37232, 37243, 37253, 37264, 37274, 37284, 37294, 37304, 37313, 37323, 37332, 37342,
-                       37351, 37360, 37370, 37379, 37388, 37396, 37405, 37414, 37422, 37431, 37439, 37448, 37456, 37464, 37472, 37480,
-                       37488, 37496, 37504, 37512, 37520, 37527, 37535, 37542, 37550, 37557, 37564, 37572, 37579, 37586, 37593, 37600],
-               [37607, 37621, 37634, 37648, 37661, 37674, 37687, 37699, 37712, 37724, 37736, 37748, 37760, 37772, 37783, 37794,
-                       37806, 37817, 37828, 37838, 37849, 37859, 37870, 37880, 37890, 37900, 37910, 37920, 37930, 37939, 37949, 37958,
-                       37968, 37977, 37986, 37995, 38004, 38013, 38022, 38030, 38039, 38047, 38056, 38064, 38072, 38081, 38089, 38097,
-                       38105, 38113, 38121, 38128, 38136, 38144, 38151, 38159, 38166, 38174, 38181, 38188, 38195, 38202, 38210, 38217],
-               [38224, 38237, 38251, 38264, 38278, 38290, 38303, 38316, 38328, 38341, 38353, 38365, 38376, 38388, 38400, 38411,
-                       38422, 38433, 38444, 38455, 38465, 38476, 38486, 38497, 38507, 38517, 38527, 38537, 38546, 38556, 38565, 38575,
-                       38584, 38593, 38603, 38612, 38621, 38629, 38638, 38647, 38655, 38664, 38672, 38681, 38689, 38697, 38705, 38713,
-                       38721, 38729, 38737, 38745, 38753, 38760, 38768, 38775, 38783, 38790, 38797, 38805, 38812, 38819, 38826, 38833],
-               [38840, 38854, 38867, 38881, 38894, 38907, 38920, 38932, 38945, 38957, 38969, 38981, 38993, 39005, 39016, 39027,
-                       39039, 39050, 39061, 39071, 39082, 39092, 39103, 39113, 39123, 39133, 39143, 39153, 39163, 39172, 39182, 39191,
-                       39201, 39210, 39219, 39228, 39237, 39246, 39255, 39263, 39272, 39280, 39289, 39297, 39305, 39314, 39322, 39330,
-                       39338, 39346, 39354, 39361, 39369, 39377, 39384, 39392, 39399, 39407, 39414, 39421, 39428, 39436, 39443, 39450],
-       ];
-
-       /// Approximate `log10(numerator / denominator) * 2048` using a look-up table.
-       #[inline]
-       pub fn negative_log10_times_2048(numerator: u64, denominator: u64) -> u64 {
-               // Multiply the -1 through to avoid needing to use signed numbers.
-               (log10_times_2048(denominator) - log10_times_2048(numerator)) as u64
-       }
-
-       #[inline]
-       fn log10_times_2048(x: u64) -> u16 {
-               debug_assert_ne!(x, 0);
-               let most_significant_bit = HIGHEST_BIT - x.leading_zeros();
-               let lower_bits = (x >> most_significant_bit.saturating_sub(LOWER_BITS)) & LOWER_BITMASK;
-               LOG10_TIMES_2048[most_significant_bit as usize][lower_bits as usize]
-       }
-
-       #[cfg(test)]
-       mod tests {
-               use super::*;
-
-               #[test]
-               fn prints_negative_log10_times_2048_lookup_table() {
-                       for msb in 0..BITS {
-                               for i in 0..LOWER_BITS_BOUND {
-                                       let x = ((LOWER_BITS_BOUND + i) << (HIGHEST_BIT - LOWER_BITS)) >> (HIGHEST_BIT - msb);
-                                       let log10_times_2048 = ((x as f64).log10() * 2048.0).round() as u16;
-                                       assert_eq!(log10_times_2048, LOG10_TIMES_2048[msb as usize][i as usize]);
-
-                                       if i % LOWER_BITS_BOUND == 0 {
-                                               print!("\t\t[{}, ", log10_times_2048);
-                                       } else if i % LOWER_BITS_BOUND == LOWER_BITS_BOUND - 1 {
-                                               println!("{}],", log10_times_2048);
-                                       } else if i % (LOWER_BITS_BOUND/4) == LOWER_BITS_BOUND/4 - 1 {
-                                               print!("{},\n\t\t\t", log10_times_2048);
-                                       } else {
-                                               print!("{}, ", log10_times_2048);
-                                       }
+                       let elapsed_time =
+                               duration_since_epoch.saturating_sub(liquidity.offset_history_last_updated);
+                       if elapsed_time > decay_params.historical_no_updates_half_life {
+                               let half_life = decay_params.historical_no_updates_half_life.as_secs_f64();
+                               if half_life != 0.0 {
+                                       liquidity.liquidity_history.decay_buckets(elapsed_time.as_secs_f64() / half_life);
+                                       liquidity.offset_history_last_updated = duration_since_epoch;
                                }
                        }
-               }
+                       liquidity.min_liquidity_offset_msat != 0 || liquidity.max_liquidity_offset_msat != 0 ||
+                               liquidity.liquidity_history.has_datapoints()
+               });
        }
 }
 
+#[cfg(c_bindings)]
+impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref> Score for ProbabilisticScorer<G, L>
+where L::Target: Logger {}
+
+#[cfg(feature = "std")]
+#[inline]
+fn powf64(n: f64, exp: f64) -> f64 {
+       n.powf(exp)
+}
+#[cfg(not(feature = "std"))]
+fn powf64(n: f64, exp: f64) -> f64 {
+       libm::powf(n as f32, exp as f32) as f64
+}
+
 mod bucketed_history {
        use super::*;
 
@@ -1789,10 +1565,24 @@ mod bucketed_history {
        // between the 12,000th sat and 24,000th sat, while only needing to store and operate on 32
        // buckets in total.
 
-       const BUCKET_START_POS: [u16; 33] = [
-               0, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048, 3072, 4096, 6144, 8192, 10240, 12288,
-               13312, 14336, 15360, 15872, 16128, 16256, 16320, 16352, 16368, 16376, 16380, 16382, 16383, 16384,
-       ];
+       // By default u16s may not be cache-aligned, but we'd rather not have to read a third cache
+       // line just to access it
+       #[repr(align(128))]
+       struct BucketStartPos([u16; 33]);
+       impl BucketStartPos {
+               const fn new() -> Self {
+                       Self([
+                               0, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048, 3072, 4096, 6144, 8192, 10240, 12288,
+                               13312, 14336, 15360, 15872, 16128, 16256, 16320, 16352, 16368, 16376, 16380, 16382, 16383, 16384,
+                       ])
+               }
+       }
+       impl core::ops::Index<usize> for BucketStartPos {
+               type Output = u16;
+               #[inline(always)]
+               fn index(&self, index: usize) -> &u16 { &self.0[index] }
+       }
+       const BUCKET_START_POS: BucketStartPos = BucketStartPos::new();
 
        const LEGACY_TO_BUCKET_RANGE: [(u8, u8); 8] = [
                (0, 12), (12, 14), (14, 15), (15, 16), (16, 17), (17, 18), (18, 20), (20, 32)
@@ -1893,7 +1683,7 @@ mod bucketed_history {
 
        impl HistoricalBucketRangeTracker {
                pub(super) fn new() -> Self { Self { buckets: [0; 32] } }
-               pub(super) fn track_datapoint(&mut self, liquidity_offset_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64) {
+               fn track_datapoint(&mut self, liquidity_offset_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64) {
                        // We have 32 leaky buckets for min and max liquidity. Each bucket tracks the amount of time
                        // we spend in each bucket as a 16-bit fixed-point number with a 5 bit fractional part.
                        //
@@ -1924,69 +1714,128 @@ mod bucketed_history {
                                self.buckets[bucket] = self.buckets[bucket].saturating_add(BUCKET_FIXED_POINT_ONE);
                        }
                }
-               /// Decay all buckets by the given number of half-lives. Used to more aggressively remove old
-               /// datapoints as we receive newer information.
-               #[inline]
-               pub(super) fn time_decay_data(&mut self, half_lives: u32) {
-                       for e in self.buckets.iter_mut() {
-                               *e = e.checked_shr(half_lives).unwrap_or(0);
-                       }
-               }
        }
 
        impl_writeable_tlv_based!(HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, { (0, buckets, required) });
        impl_writeable_tlv_based!(LegacyHistoricalBucketRangeTracker, { (0, buckets, required) });
 
-       /// A set of buckets representing the history of where we've seen the minimum- and maximum-
-       /// liquidity bounds for a given channel.
-       pub(super) struct HistoricalMinMaxBuckets<D: Deref<Target = HistoricalBucketRangeTracker>> {
-               /// Buckets tracking where and how often we've seen the minimum liquidity bound for a
-               /// channel.
-               pub(super) min_liquidity_offset_history: D,
-               /// Buckets tracking where and how often we've seen the maximum liquidity bound for a
-               /// channel.
-               pub(super) max_liquidity_offset_history: D,
-       }
-
-       impl<D: Deref<Target = HistoricalBucketRangeTracker>> HistoricalMinMaxBuckets<D> {
-               pub(super) fn get_decayed_buckets<T: Time>(&self, now: T, last_updated: T, half_life: Duration)
-               -> Option<([u16; 32], [u16; 32])> {
-                       let (_, required_decays) = self.get_total_valid_points(now, last_updated, half_life)?;
-
-                       let mut min_buckets = *self.min_liquidity_offset_history;
-                       min_buckets.time_decay_data(required_decays);
-                       let mut max_buckets = *self.max_liquidity_offset_history;
-                       max_buckets.time_decay_data(required_decays);
-                       Some((min_buckets.buckets, max_buckets.buckets))
+       #[derive(Clone, Copy)]
+       #[repr(C)] // Force the fields in memory to be in the order we specify.
+       pub(super) struct HistoricalLiquidityTracker {
+               total_valid_points_tracked: u64,
+               min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker,
+               max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker,
+       }
+
+       impl HistoricalLiquidityTracker {
+               pub(super) fn new() -> HistoricalLiquidityTracker {
+                       HistoricalLiquidityTracker {
+                               min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
+                               max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
+                               total_valid_points_tracked: 0,
+                       }
+               }
+
+               pub(super) fn from_min_max(
+                       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker,
+                       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker,
+               ) -> HistoricalLiquidityTracker {
+                       let mut res = HistoricalLiquidityTracker {
+                               min_liquidity_offset_history,
+                               max_liquidity_offset_history,
+                               total_valid_points_tracked: 0,
+                       };
+                       res.recalculate_valid_points();
+                       res
+               }
+
+               pub(super) fn has_datapoints(&self) -> bool {
+                       self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets != [0; 32] ||
+                               self.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets != [0; 32]
                }
-               #[inline]
-               pub(super) fn get_total_valid_points<T: Time>(&self, now: T, last_updated: T, half_life: Duration)
-               -> Option<(u64, u32)> {
-                       let required_decays = now.duration_since(last_updated).as_secs()
-                               .checked_div(half_life.as_secs())
-                               .map_or(u32::max_value(), |decays| cmp::min(decays, u32::max_value() as u64) as u32);
 
-                       let mut total_valid_points_tracked = 0;
+               pub(super) fn decay_buckets(&mut self, half_lives: f64) {
+                       let divisor = powf64(2048.0, half_lives) as u64;
+                       for bucket in self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter_mut() {
+                               *bucket = ((*bucket as u64) * 1024 / divisor) as u16;
+                       }
+                       for bucket in self.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter_mut() {
+                               *bucket = ((*bucket as u64) * 1024 / divisor) as u16;
+                       }
+                       self.recalculate_valid_points();
+               }
+
+               fn recalculate_valid_points(&mut self) {
+                       self.total_valid_points_tracked = 0;
                        for (min_idx, min_bucket) in self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate() {
                                for max_bucket in self.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().take(32 - min_idx) {
-                                       total_valid_points_tracked += (*min_bucket as u64) * (*max_bucket as u64);
+                                       self.total_valid_points_tracked += (*min_bucket as u64) * (*max_bucket as u64);
                                }
                        }
+               }
 
-                       // If the total valid points is smaller than 1.0 (i.e. 32 in our fixed-point scheme),
-                       // treat it as if we were fully decayed.
-                       const FULLY_DECAYED: u16 = BUCKET_FIXED_POINT_ONE * BUCKET_FIXED_POINT_ONE;
-                       if total_valid_points_tracked.checked_shr(required_decays).unwrap_or(0) < FULLY_DECAYED.into() {
-                               return None;
+               pub(super) fn writeable_min_offset_history(&self) -> &HistoricalBucketRangeTracker {
+                       &self.min_liquidity_offset_history
+               }
+
+               pub(super) fn writeable_max_offset_history(&self) -> &HistoricalBucketRangeTracker {
+                       &self.max_liquidity_offset_history
+               }
+
+               pub(super) fn as_directed<'a>(&'a self, source_less_than_target: bool)
+               -> DirectedHistoricalLiquidityTracker<&'a HistoricalLiquidityTracker> {
+                       DirectedHistoricalLiquidityTracker { source_less_than_target, tracker: self }
+               }
+
+               pub(super) fn as_directed_mut<'a>(&'a mut self, source_less_than_target: bool)
+               -> DirectedHistoricalLiquidityTracker<&'a mut HistoricalLiquidityTracker> {
+                       DirectedHistoricalLiquidityTracker { source_less_than_target, tracker: self }
+               }
+       }
+
+       /// A set of buckets representing the history of where we've seen the minimum- and maximum-
+       /// liquidity bounds for a given channel.
+       pub(super) struct DirectedHistoricalLiquidityTracker<D: Deref<Target = HistoricalLiquidityTracker>> {
+               source_less_than_target: bool,
+               tracker: D,
+       }
+
+       impl<D: DerefMut<Target = HistoricalLiquidityTracker>> DirectedHistoricalLiquidityTracker<D> {
+               pub(super) fn track_datapoint(
+                       &mut self, min_offset_msat: u64, max_offset_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64,
+               ) {
+                       if self.source_less_than_target {
+                               self.tracker.min_liquidity_offset_history.track_datapoint(min_offset_msat, capacity_msat);
+                               self.tracker.max_liquidity_offset_history.track_datapoint(max_offset_msat, capacity_msat);
+                       } else {
+                               self.tracker.max_liquidity_offset_history.track_datapoint(min_offset_msat, capacity_msat);
+                               self.tracker.min_liquidity_offset_history.track_datapoint(max_offset_msat, capacity_msat);
                        }
+                       self.tracker.recalculate_valid_points();
+               }
+       }
+
+       impl<D: Deref<Target = HistoricalLiquidityTracker>> DirectedHistoricalLiquidityTracker<D> {
+               pub(super) fn min_liquidity_offset_history_buckets(&self) -> &[u16; 32] {
+                       if self.source_less_than_target {
+                               &self.tracker.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets
+                       } else {
+                               &self.tracker.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets
+                       }
+               }
 
-                       Some((total_valid_points_tracked, required_decays))
+               pub(super) fn max_liquidity_offset_history_buckets(&self) -> &[u16; 32] {
+                       if self.source_less_than_target {
+                               &self.tracker.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets
+                       } else {
+                               &self.tracker.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets
+                       }
                }
 
                #[inline]
-               pub(super) fn calculate_success_probability_times_billion<T: Time>(
-                       &self, now: T, last_updated: T, half_life: Duration,
-                       params: &ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters, amount_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64
+               pub(super) fn calculate_success_probability_times_billion(
+                       &self, params: &ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters, amount_msat: u64,
+                       capacity_msat: u64
                ) -> Option<u64> {
                        // If historical penalties are enabled, we try to calculate a probability of success
                        // given our historical distribution of min- and max-liquidity bounds in a channel.
@@ -1998,10 +1847,28 @@ mod bucketed_history {
                        let payment_pos = amount_to_pos(amount_msat, capacity_msat);
                        if payment_pos >= POSITION_TICKS { return None; }
 
-                       // Check if all our buckets are zero, once decayed and treat it as if we had no data. We
-                       // don't actually use the decayed buckets, though, as that would lose precision.
-                       let (total_valid_points_tracked, _)
-                               = self.get_total_valid_points(now, last_updated, half_life)?;
+                       let min_liquidity_offset_history_buckets =
+                               self.min_liquidity_offset_history_buckets();
+                       let max_liquidity_offset_history_buckets =
+                               self.max_liquidity_offset_history_buckets();
+
+                       let total_valid_points_tracked = self.tracker.total_valid_points_tracked;
+                       #[cfg(debug_assertions)] {
+                               let mut actual_valid_points_tracked = 0;
+                               for (min_idx, min_bucket) in min_liquidity_offset_history_buckets.iter().enumerate() {
+                                       for max_bucket in max_liquidity_offset_history_buckets.iter().take(32 - min_idx) {
+                                               actual_valid_points_tracked += (*min_bucket as u64) * (*max_bucket as u64);
+                                       }
+                               }
+                               assert_eq!(total_valid_points_tracked, actual_valid_points_tracked);
+                       }
+
+                       // If the total valid points is smaller than 1.0 (i.e. 32 in our fixed-point scheme),
+                       // treat it as if we were fully decayed.
+                       const FULLY_DECAYED: u16 = BUCKET_FIXED_POINT_ONE * BUCKET_FIXED_POINT_ONE;
+                       if total_valid_points_tracked < FULLY_DECAYED.into() {
+                               return None;
+                       }
 
                        let mut cumulative_success_prob_times_billion = 0;
                        // Special-case the 0th min bucket - it generally means we failed a payment, so only
@@ -2011,10 +1878,10 @@ mod bucketed_history {
                        // datapoint, many of which may have relatively high maximum-available-liquidity
                        // values, which will result in us thinking we have some nontrivial probability of
                        // routing up to that amount.
-                       if self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets[0] != 0 {
+                       if min_liquidity_offset_history_buckets[0] != 0 {
                                let mut highest_max_bucket_with_points = 0; // The highest max-bucket with any data
                                let mut total_max_points = 0; // Total points in max-buckets to consider
-                               for (max_idx, max_bucket) in self.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate() {
+                               for (max_idx, max_bucket) in max_liquidity_offset_history_buckets.iter().enumerate() {
                                        if *max_bucket >= BUCKET_FIXED_POINT_ONE {
                                                highest_max_bucket_with_points = cmp::max(highest_max_bucket_with_points, max_idx);
                                        }
@@ -2022,35 +1889,37 @@ mod bucketed_history {
                                }
                                let max_bucket_end_pos = BUCKET_START_POS[32 - highest_max_bucket_with_points] - 1;
                                if payment_pos < max_bucket_end_pos {
-                                       let (numerator, denominator) = success_probability(payment_pos as u64, 0,
-                                               max_bucket_end_pos as u64, POSITION_TICKS as u64 - 1, params, true);
                                        let bucket_prob_times_billion =
-                                               (self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets[0] as u64) * total_max_points
+                                               (min_liquidity_offset_history_buckets[0] as u64) * total_max_points
                                                        * 1024 * 1024 * 1024 / total_valid_points_tracked;
-                                       cumulative_success_prob_times_billion += bucket_prob_times_billion *
-                                               numerator / denominator;
+                                       debug_assert!(bucket_prob_times_billion < u32::max_value() as u64);
+                                       cumulative_success_prob_times_billion += success_probability_times_value(
+                                               payment_pos as u64, 0, max_bucket_end_pos as u64,
+                                               POSITION_TICKS as u64 - 1, params, true, bucket_prob_times_billion as u32
+                                       );
                                }
                        }
 
-                       for (min_idx, min_bucket) in self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate().skip(1) {
+                       for (min_idx, min_bucket) in min_liquidity_offset_history_buckets.iter().enumerate().skip(1) {
                                let min_bucket_start_pos = BUCKET_START_POS[min_idx];
-                               for (max_idx, max_bucket) in self.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate().take(32 - min_idx) {
+                               for (max_idx, max_bucket) in max_liquidity_offset_history_buckets.iter().enumerate().take(32 - min_idx) {
                                        let max_bucket_end_pos = BUCKET_START_POS[32 - max_idx] - 1;
+                                       if payment_pos >= max_bucket_end_pos {
+                                               // Success probability 0, the payment amount may be above the max liquidity
+                                               break;
+                                       }
                                        // Note that this multiply can only barely not overflow - two 16 bit ints plus
                                        // 30 bits is 62 bits.
                                        let bucket_prob_times_billion = (*min_bucket as u64) * (*max_bucket as u64)
                                                * 1024 * 1024 * 1024 / total_valid_points_tracked;
-                                       if payment_pos >= max_bucket_end_pos {
-                                               // Success probability 0, the payment amount may be above the max liquidity
-                                               break;
-                                       } else if payment_pos < min_bucket_start_pos {
+                                       debug_assert!(bucket_prob_times_billion < u32::max_value() as u64);
+                                       if payment_pos < min_bucket_start_pos {
                                                cumulative_success_prob_times_billion += bucket_prob_times_billion;
                                        } else {
-                                               let (numerator, denominator) = success_probability(payment_pos as u64,
-                                                       min_bucket_start_pos as u64, max_bucket_end_pos as u64,
-                                                       POSITION_TICKS as u64 - 1, params, true);
-                                               cumulative_success_prob_times_billion += bucket_prob_times_billion *
-                                                       numerator / denominator;
+                                               cumulative_success_prob_times_billion += success_probability_times_value(
+                                                       payment_pos as u64, min_bucket_start_pos as u64,
+                                                       max_bucket_end_pos as u64, POSITION_TICKS as u64 - 1, params, true,
+                                                       bucket_prob_times_billion as u32);
                                        }
                                }
                        }
@@ -2059,9 +1928,9 @@ mod bucketed_history {
                }
        }
 }
-use bucketed_history::{LegacyHistoricalBucketRangeTracker, HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, HistoricalMinMaxBuckets};
+use bucketed_history::{LegacyHistoricalBucketRangeTracker, HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, DirectedHistoricalLiquidityTracker, HistoricalLiquidityTracker};
 
-impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> Writeable for ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime<G, L, T> where L::Target: Logger {
+impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref> Writeable for ProbabilisticScorer<G, L> where L::Target: Logger {
        #[inline]
        fn write<W: Writer>(&self, w: &mut W) -> Result<(), io::Error> {
                write_tlv_fields!(w, {
@@ -2071,8 +1940,8 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> Writeable for Probab
        }
 }
 
-impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time>
-ReadableArgs<(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters, G, L)> for ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime<G, L, T> where L::Target: Logger {
+impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref>
+ReadableArgs<(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters, G, L)> for ProbabilisticScorer<G, L> where L::Target: Logger {
        #[inline]
        fn read<R: Read>(
                r: &mut R, args: (ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters, G, L)
@@ -2091,24 +1960,24 @@ ReadableArgs<(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters, G, L)> for ProbabilisticScore
        }
 }
 
-impl<T: Time> Writeable for ChannelLiquidity<T> {
+impl Writeable for ChannelLiquidity {
        #[inline]
        fn write<W: Writer>(&self, w: &mut W) -> Result<(), io::Error> {
-               let duration_since_epoch = T::duration_since_epoch() - self.last_updated.elapsed();
                write_tlv_fields!(w, {
                        (0, self.min_liquidity_offset_msat, required),
                        // 1 was the min_liquidity_offset_history in octile form
                        (2, self.max_liquidity_offset_msat, required),
                        // 3 was the max_liquidity_offset_history in octile form
-                       (4, duration_since_epoch, required),
-                       (5, Some(self.min_liquidity_offset_history), option),
-                       (7, Some(self.max_liquidity_offset_history), option),
+                       (4, self.last_updated, required),
+                       (5, self.liquidity_history.writeable_min_offset_history(), required),
+                       (7, self.liquidity_history.writeable_max_offset_history(), required),
+                       (9, self.offset_history_last_updated, required),
                });
                Ok(())
        }
 }
 
-impl<T: Time> Readable for ChannelLiquidity<T> {
+impl Readable for ChannelLiquidity {
        #[inline]
        fn read<R: Read>(r: &mut R) -> Result<Self, DecodeError> {
                let mut min_liquidity_offset_msat = 0;
@@ -2117,28 +1986,19 @@ impl<T: Time> Readable for ChannelLiquidity<T> {
                let mut legacy_max_liq_offset_history: Option<LegacyHistoricalBucketRangeTracker> = None;
                let mut min_liquidity_offset_history: Option<HistoricalBucketRangeTracker> = None;
                let mut max_liquidity_offset_history: Option<HistoricalBucketRangeTracker> = None;
-               let mut duration_since_epoch = Duration::from_secs(0);
+               let mut last_updated = Duration::from_secs(0);
+               let mut offset_history_last_updated = None;
                read_tlv_fields!(r, {
                        (0, min_liquidity_offset_msat, required),
                        (1, legacy_min_liq_offset_history, option),
                        (2, max_liquidity_offset_msat, required),
                        (3, legacy_max_liq_offset_history, option),
-                       (4, duration_since_epoch, required),
+                       (4, last_updated, required),
                        (5, min_liquidity_offset_history, option),
                        (7, max_liquidity_offset_history, option),
+                       (9, offset_history_last_updated, option),
                });
-               // On rust prior to 1.60 `Instant::duration_since` will panic if time goes backwards.
-               // We write `last_updated` as wallclock time even though its ultimately an `Instant` (which
-               // is a time from a monotonic clock usually represented as an offset against boot time).
-               // Thus, we have to construct an `Instant` by subtracting the difference in wallclock time
-               // from the one that was written. However, because `Instant` can panic if we construct one
-               // in the future, we must handle wallclock time jumping backwards, which we do by simply
-               // using `Instant::now()` in that case.
-               let wall_clock_now = T::duration_since_epoch();
-               let now = T::now();
-               let last_updated = if wall_clock_now > duration_since_epoch {
-                       now - (wall_clock_now - duration_since_epoch)
-               } else { now };
+
                if min_liquidity_offset_history.is_none() {
                        if let Some(legacy_buckets) = legacy_min_liq_offset_history {
                                min_liquidity_offset_history = Some(legacy_buckets.into_current());
@@ -2156,30 +2016,30 @@ impl<T: Time> Readable for ChannelLiquidity<T> {
                Ok(Self {
                        min_liquidity_offset_msat,
                        max_liquidity_offset_msat,
-                       min_liquidity_offset_history: min_liquidity_offset_history.unwrap(),
-                       max_liquidity_offset_history: max_liquidity_offset_history.unwrap(),
+                       liquidity_history: HistoricalLiquidityTracker::from_min_max(
+                               min_liquidity_offset_history.unwrap(), max_liquidity_offset_history.unwrap()
+                       ),
                        last_updated,
+                       offset_history_last_updated: offset_history_last_updated.unwrap_or(last_updated),
                })
        }
 }
 
 #[cfg(test)]
 mod tests {
-       use super::{ChannelLiquidity, HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters, ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters, ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime};
+       use super::{ChannelLiquidity, HistoricalLiquidityTracker, ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters, ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters, ProbabilisticScorer};
        use crate::blinded_path::{BlindedHop, BlindedPath};
        use crate::util::config::UserConfig;
-       use crate::util::time::Time;
-       use crate::util::time::tests::SinceEpoch;
 
        use crate::ln::channelmanager;
        use crate::ln::msgs::{ChannelAnnouncement, ChannelUpdate, UnsignedChannelAnnouncement, UnsignedChannelUpdate};
        use crate::routing::gossip::{EffectiveCapacity, NetworkGraph, NodeId};
-       use crate::routing::router::{BlindedTail, Path, RouteHop};
+       use crate::routing::router::{BlindedTail, Path, RouteHop, CandidateRouteHop};
        use crate::routing::scoring::{ChannelUsage, ScoreLookUp, ScoreUpdate};
        use crate::util::ser::{ReadableArgs, Writeable};
        use crate::util::test_utils::{self, TestLogger};
 
-       use bitcoin::blockdata::constants::genesis_block;
+       use bitcoin::blockdata::constants::ChainHash;
        use bitcoin::hashes::Hash;
        use bitcoin::hashes::sha256d::Hash as Sha256dHash;
        use bitcoin::network::constants::Network;
@@ -2215,9 +2075,6 @@ mod tests {
 
        // `ProbabilisticScorer` tests
 
-       /// A probabilistic scorer for testing with time that can be manually advanced.
-       type ProbabilisticScorer<'a> = ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime::<&'a NetworkGraph<&'a TestLogger>, &'a TestLogger, SinceEpoch>;
-
        fn sender_privkey() -> SecretKey {
                SecretKey::from_slice(&[41; 32]).unwrap()
        }
@@ -2236,10 +2093,6 @@ mod tests {
                PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &recipient_privkey())
        }
 
-       fn sender_node_id() -> NodeId {
-               NodeId::from_pubkey(&sender_pubkey())
-       }
-
        fn recipient_node_id() -> NodeId {
                NodeId::from_pubkey(&recipient_pubkey())
        }
@@ -2256,7 +2109,7 @@ mod tests {
                network_graph: &mut NetworkGraph<&TestLogger>, short_channel_id: u64, node_1_key: SecretKey,
                node_2_key: SecretKey
        ) {
-               let genesis_hash = genesis_block(Network::Testnet).header.block_hash();
+               let genesis_hash = ChainHash::using_genesis_block(Network::Testnet);
                let node_1_secret = &SecretKey::from_slice(&[39; 32]).unwrap();
                let node_2_secret = &SecretKey::from_slice(&[40; 32]).unwrap();
                let secp_ctx = Secp256k1::new();
@@ -2289,7 +2142,7 @@ mod tests {
                network_graph: &mut NetworkGraph<&TestLogger>, short_channel_id: u64, node_key: SecretKey,
                flags: u8, htlc_maximum_msat: u64, timestamp: u32,
        ) {
-               let genesis_hash = genesis_block(Network::Testnet).header.block_hash();
+               let genesis_hash = ChainHash::using_genesis_block(Network::Testnet);
                let secp_ctx = Secp256k1::new();
                let unsigned_update = UnsignedChannelUpdate {
                        chain_hash: genesis_hash,
@@ -2337,21 +2190,22 @@ mod tests {
        #[test]
        fn liquidity_bounds_directed_from_lowest_node_id() {
                let logger = TestLogger::new();
-               let last_updated = SinceEpoch::now();
+               let last_updated = Duration::ZERO;
+               let offset_history_last_updated = Duration::ZERO;
                let network_graph = network_graph(&logger);
                let decay_params = ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default();
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(decay_params, &network_graph, &logger)
                        .with_channel(42,
                                ChannelLiquidity {
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 700, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 100, last_updated,
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
-                                       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 700, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 100,
+                                       last_updated, offset_history_last_updated,
+                                       liquidity_history: HistoricalLiquidityTracker::new(),
                                })
                        .with_channel(43,
                                ChannelLiquidity {
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 700, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 100, last_updated,
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
-                                       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 700, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 100,
+                                       last_updated, offset_history_last_updated,
+                                       liquidity_history: HistoricalLiquidityTracker::new(),
                                });
                let source = source_node_id();
                let target = target_node_id();
@@ -2362,52 +2216,52 @@ mod tests {
                // Update minimum liquidity.
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 100);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 300);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 700);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 900);
 
                scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000, decay_params)
-                       .set_min_liquidity_msat(200);
+                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000)
+                       .set_min_liquidity_msat(200, Duration::ZERO);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 200);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 300);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 700);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 800);
 
                // Update maximum liquidity.
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&43).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &recipient, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &recipient, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 700);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 900);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&43).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&recipient, &target, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&recipient, &target, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 100);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 300);
 
                scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&43).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed_mut(&target, &recipient, 1_000, decay_params)
-                       .set_max_liquidity_msat(200);
+                       .as_directed_mut(&target, &recipient, 1_000)
+                       .set_max_liquidity_msat(200, Duration::ZERO);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&43).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &recipient, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &recipient, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 200);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&43).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&recipient, &target, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&recipient, &target, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 800);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 1000);
        }
@@ -2415,15 +2269,16 @@ mod tests {
        #[test]
        fn resets_liquidity_upper_bound_when_crossed_by_lower_bound() {
                let logger = TestLogger::new();
-               let last_updated = SinceEpoch::now();
+               let last_updated = Duration::ZERO;
+               let offset_history_last_updated = Duration::ZERO;
                let network_graph = network_graph(&logger);
                let decay_params = ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default();
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(decay_params, &network_graph, &logger)
                        .with_channel(42,
                                ChannelLiquidity {
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 200, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 400, last_updated,
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
-                                       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 200, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 400,
+                                       last_updated, offset_history_last_updated,
+                                       liquidity_history: HistoricalLiquidityTracker::new(),
                                });
                let source = source_node_id();
                let target = target_node_id();
@@ -2431,42 +2286,42 @@ mod tests {
 
                // Check initial bounds.
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 400);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 800);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 200);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 600);
 
                // Reset from source to target.
                scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000, decay_params)
-                       .set_min_liquidity_msat(900);
+                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000)
+                       .set_min_liquidity_msat(900, Duration::ZERO);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 900);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 1_000);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 100);
 
                // Reset from target to source.
                scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed_mut(&target, &source, 1_000, decay_params)
-                       .set_min_liquidity_msat(400);
+                       .as_directed_mut(&target, &source, 1_000)
+                       .set_min_liquidity_msat(400, Duration::ZERO);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 600);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 400);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 1_000);
        }
@@ -2474,15 +2329,16 @@ mod tests {
        #[test]
        fn resets_liquidity_lower_bound_when_crossed_by_upper_bound() {
                let logger = TestLogger::new();
-               let last_updated = SinceEpoch::now();
+               let last_updated = Duration::ZERO;
+               let offset_history_last_updated = Duration::ZERO;
                let network_graph = network_graph(&logger);
                let decay_params = ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default();
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(decay_params, &network_graph, &logger)
                        .with_channel(42,
                                ChannelLiquidity {
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 200, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 400, last_updated,
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
-                                       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 200, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 400,
+                                       last_updated, offset_history_last_updated,
+                                       liquidity_history: HistoricalLiquidityTracker::new(),
                                });
                let source = source_node_id();
                let target = target_node_id();
@@ -2490,42 +2346,42 @@ mod tests {
 
                // Check initial bounds.
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 400);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 800);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 200);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 600);
 
                // Reset from source to target.
                scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000, decay_params)
-                       .set_max_liquidity_msat(300);
+                       .as_directed_mut(&source, &target, 1_000)
+                       .set_max_liquidity_msat(300, Duration::ZERO);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 300);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 700);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 1_000);
 
                // Reset from target to source.
                scorer.channel_liquidities.get_mut(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed_mut(&target, &source, 1_000, decay_params)
-                       .set_max_liquidity_msat(600);
+                       .as_directed_mut(&target, &source, 1_000)
+                       .set_max_liquidity_msat(600, Duration::ZERO);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 400);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 1_000);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&target, &source, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 0);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 600);
        }
@@ -2541,45 +2397,52 @@ mod tests {
                let decay_params = ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default();
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(decay_params, &network_graph, &logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
 
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 1_024,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
+               let network_graph = network_graph.read_only();
+               let channel = network_graph.channel(42).unwrap();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 10_240, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 102_400, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 47);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 47);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_023_999, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 2_000);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 2_000);
 
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 128,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 58);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 58);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 256, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 125);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 125);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 374, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 198);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 198);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 512, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 300);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 300);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 640, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 425);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 425);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 768, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 602);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 602);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 896, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 902);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 902);
        }
 
        #[test]
        fn constant_penalty_outside_liquidity_bounds() {
                let logger = TestLogger::new();
-               let last_updated = SinceEpoch::now();
+               let last_updated = Duration::ZERO;
+               let offset_history_last_updated = Duration::ZERO;
                let network_graph = network_graph(&logger);
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters {
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
@@ -2592,24 +2455,29 @@ mod tests {
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(decay_params, &network_graph, &logger)
                        .with_channel(42,
                                ChannelLiquidity {
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 40, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 40, last_updated,
-                                       min_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
-                                       max_liquidity_offset_history: HistoricalBucketRangeTracker::new(),
+                                       min_liquidity_offset_msat: 40, max_liquidity_offset_msat: 40,
+                                       last_updated, offset_history_last_updated,
+                                       liquidity_history: HistoricalLiquidityTracker::new(),
                                });
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
 
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 39,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 100, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 50, ..usage };
-               assert_ne!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
-               assert_ne!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+               assert_ne!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
+               assert_ne!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 61, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -2621,7 +2489,6 @@ mod tests {
                        ..ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default(), &network_graph, &logger);
-               let sender = sender_node_id();
                let source = source_node_id();
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 500,
@@ -2630,14 +2497,20 @@ mod tests {
                };
                let failed_path = payment_path_for_amount(500);
                let successful_path = payment_path_for_amount(200);
+               let channel = &network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 41,
+               };
 
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(41, &sender, &source, usage, &params), 301);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 301);
 
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&failed_path, 41);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(41, &sender, &source, usage, &params), 301);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&failed_path, 41, Duration::ZERO);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 301);
 
-               scorer.payment_path_successful(&successful_path);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(41, &sender, &source, usage, &params), 301);
+               scorer.payment_path_successful(&successful_path, Duration::ZERO);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 301);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -2650,7 +2523,6 @@ mod tests {
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default(), &network_graph, &logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
                let path = payment_path_for_amount(500);
 
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
@@ -2658,20 +2530,26 @@ mod tests {
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 128);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 128);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 500, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 301);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 301);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 750, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 602);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 602);
 
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&path, 43);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&path, 43, Duration::ZERO);
 
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 250, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 500, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 750, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 300);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 300);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -2685,7 +2563,6 @@ mod tests {
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default(), &network_graph, &logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
                let path = payment_path_for_amount(500);
 
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
@@ -2693,20 +2570,26 @@ mod tests {
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 128);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 128);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 500, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 301);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 301);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 750, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 602);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 602);
 
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&path, 42);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&path, 42, Duration::ZERO);
 
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 250, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 300);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 300);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 500, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 750, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -2741,7 +2624,6 @@ mod tests {
                let node_a = NodeId::from_pubkey(&pub_a);
                let node_b = NodeId::from_pubkey(&pub_b);
                let node_c = NodeId::from_pubkey(&pub_c);
-               let node_d = NodeId::from_pubkey(&pub_d);
 
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters {
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
@@ -2754,17 +2636,53 @@ mod tests {
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &node_a, &node_b, usage, &params), 128);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&node_a).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 128);
                // Note that a default liquidity bound is used for B -> C as no channel exists
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(43, &node_b, &node_c, usage, &params), 128);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(44, &node_c, &node_d, usage, &params), 128);
-
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&Path { hops: path, blinded_tail: None }, 43);
-
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &node_a, &node_b, usage, &params), 80);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&node_b).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 43,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 128);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(44).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&node_c).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 44,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 128);
+
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&Path { hops: path, blinded_tail: None }, 43, Duration::ZERO);
+
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&node_a).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 80);
                // Note that a default liquidity bound is used for B -> C as no channel exists
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(43, &node_b, &node_c, usage, &params), 128);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(44, &node_c, &node_d, usage, &params), 128);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&node_b).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 43,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 128);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(44).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&node_c).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 44,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 128);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -2776,25 +2694,39 @@ mod tests {
                        ..ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default(), &network_graph, &logger);
-               let sender = sender_node_id();
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
-               let recipient = recipient_node_id();
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 250,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
+               let network_graph = network_graph.read_only().channels().clone();
+               let channel_42 = network_graph.get(&42).unwrap();
+               let channel_43 = network_graph.get(&43).unwrap();
+               let (info, _) = channel_42.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate_41 = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 41,
+               };
+               let (info, target) = channel_42.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate_42 = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               let (info, _) = channel_43.as_directed_from(&target).unwrap();
+               let candidate_43 = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 43,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate_41, usage, &params), 128);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate_42, usage, &params), 128);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate_43, usage, &params), 128);
 
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(41, &sender, &source, usage, &params), 128);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 128);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(43, &target, &recipient, usage, &params), 128);
-
-               scorer.payment_path_successful(&payment_path_for_amount(500));
+               scorer.payment_path_successful(&payment_path_for_amount(500), Duration::ZERO);
 
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(41, &sender, &source, usage, &params), 128);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 300);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(43, &target, &recipient, usage, &params), 300);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate_41, usage, &params), 128);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate_42, usage, &params), 300);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate_43, usage, &params), 300);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -2812,120 +2744,80 @@ mod tests {
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(decay_params, &network_graph, &logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
 
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 0,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_024 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_023, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 2_000);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 2_000);
 
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(768), 42);
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(128), 43);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(768), 42, Duration::ZERO);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(128), 43, Duration::ZERO);
 
                // Initial penalties
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 128, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
-               let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 256, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 93);
-               let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 768, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 1_479);
-               let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 896, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
-
-               // No decay
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(4));
-               let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 128, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 256, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 93);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 93);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 768, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 1_479);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 1_479);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 896, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
 
                // Half decay (i.e., three-quarter life)
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(1));
+               scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(Duration::from_secs(5));
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 128, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 22);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 22);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 256, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 106);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 106);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 768, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 921);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 921);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 896, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
 
                // One decay (i.e., half life)
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(5));
+               scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(Duration::from_secs(10));
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 64, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 128, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 34);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 34);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 896, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 1_970);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 1_970);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 960, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
 
                // Fully decay liquidity lower bound.
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10 * 7));
+               scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(Duration::from_secs(10 * 8));
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 0, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_023, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 2_000);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 2_000);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_024, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
 
                // Fully decay liquidity upper bound.
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
+               scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(Duration::from_secs(10 * 9));
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 0, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_024, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
 
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
+               scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(Duration::from_secs(10 * 10));
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 0, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_024, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
-       }
-
-       #[test]
-       fn decays_liquidity_bounds_without_shift_overflow() {
-               let logger = TestLogger::new();
-               let network_graph = network_graph(&logger);
-               let params = ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters {
-                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
-                       ..ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::zero_penalty()
-               };
-               let decay_params = ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters {
-                       liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(10),
-                       ..ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default()
-               };
-               let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(decay_params, &network_graph, &logger);
-               let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
-               let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       amount_msat: 256,
-                       inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
-               };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 125);
-
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(512), 42);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 281);
-
-               // An unchecked right shift 64 bits or more in DirectedChannelLiquidity::decayed_offset_msat
-               // would cause an overflow.
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10 * 64));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 125);
-
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 125);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -2942,37 +2834,42 @@ mod tests {
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(decay_params, &network_graph, &logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
 
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 300);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 300);
 
                // More knowledge gives higher confidence (256, 768), meaning a lower penalty.
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(768), 42);
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(256), 43);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 281);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(768), 42, Duration::ZERO);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(256), 43, Duration::ZERO);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 281);
 
                // Decaying knowledge gives less confidence (128, 896), meaning a higher penalty.
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 291);
+               scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(Duration::from_secs(10));
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 291);
 
                // Reducing the upper bound gives more confidence (128, 832) that the payment amount (512)
                // is closer to the upper bound, meaning a higher penalty.
-               scorer.payment_path_successful(&payment_path_for_amount(64));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 331);
+               scorer.payment_path_successful(&payment_path_for_amount(64), Duration::from_secs(10));
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 331);
 
                // Increasing the lower bound gives more confidence (256, 832) that the payment amount (512)
                // is closer to the lower bound, meaning a lower penalty.
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(256), 43);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 245);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(256), 43, Duration::from_secs(10));
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 245);
 
                // Further decaying affects the lower bound more than the upper bound (128, 928).
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 280);
+               scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(Duration::from_secs(20));
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 280);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -2990,33 +2887,37 @@ mod tests {
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(decay_params, &network_graph, &logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 500,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
 
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(500), 42);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(500), 42, Duration::ZERO);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
 
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 473);
+               scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(Duration::from_secs(10));
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 473);
 
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(250), 43);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 300);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(250), 43, Duration::from_secs(10));
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 300);
 
                let mut serialized_scorer = Vec::new();
                scorer.write(&mut serialized_scorer).unwrap();
 
                let mut serialized_scorer = io::Cursor::new(&serialized_scorer);
                let deserialized_scorer =
-                       <ProbabilisticScorer>::read(&mut serialized_scorer, (decay_params, &network_graph, &logger)).unwrap();
-               assert_eq!(deserialized_scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 300);
+                       <ProbabilisticScorer<_, _>>::read(&mut serialized_scorer, (decay_params, &network_graph, &logger)).unwrap();
+               assert_eq!(deserialized_scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 300);
        }
 
-       #[test]
-       fn decays_persisted_liquidity_bounds() {
+       fn do_decays_persisted_liquidity_bounds(decay_before_reload: bool) {
                let logger = TestLogger::new();
                let network_graph = network_graph(&logger);
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters {
@@ -3030,31 +2931,48 @@ mod tests {
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(decay_params, &network_graph, &logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 500,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
 
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(500), 42);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(500), 42, Duration::ZERO);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+
+               if decay_before_reload {
+                       scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(Duration::from_secs(10));
+               }
 
                let mut serialized_scorer = Vec::new();
                scorer.write(&mut serialized_scorer).unwrap();
 
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
-
                let mut serialized_scorer = io::Cursor::new(&serialized_scorer);
-               let deserialized_scorer =
-                       <ProbabilisticScorer>::read(&mut serialized_scorer, (decay_params, &network_graph, &logger)).unwrap();
-               assert_eq!(deserialized_scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 473);
+               let mut deserialized_scorer =
+                       <ProbabilisticScorer<_, _>>::read(&mut serialized_scorer, (decay_params, &network_graph, &logger)).unwrap();
+               if !decay_before_reload {
+                       scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(Duration::from_secs(10));
+                       deserialized_scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(Duration::from_secs(10));
+               }
+               assert_eq!(deserialized_scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 473);
 
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(250), 43);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 300);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(250), 43, Duration::from_secs(10));
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 300);
+
+               deserialized_scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(Duration::from_secs(20));
+               assert_eq!(deserialized_scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 370);
+       }
 
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10));
-               assert_eq!(deserialized_scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 370);
+       #[test]
+       fn decays_persisted_liquidity_bounds() {
+               do_decays_persisted_liquidity_bounds(false);
+               do_decays_persisted_liquidity_bounds(true);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -3066,54 +2984,59 @@ mod tests {
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::default();
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default(), &network_graph, &logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
 
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 100_000_000,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 11497);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 11497);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 7408);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 7408);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 2_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 6151);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 6151);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 3_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 5427);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 5427);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 4_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 4955);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 4955);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 5_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 4736);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 4736);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 6_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 4484);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 4484);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 7_450_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 4484);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 4484);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 7_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 4263);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 4263);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 8_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 4263);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 4263);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 9_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 4044);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 4044);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -3121,7 +3044,6 @@ mod tests {
                let logger = TestLogger::new();
                let network_graph = network_graph(&logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 128,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
@@ -3133,14 +3055,20 @@ mod tests {
                        ..ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default(), &network_graph, &logger);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 58);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 58);
 
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters {
                        base_penalty_msat: 500, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
                        anti_probing_penalty_msat: 0, ..ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default(), &network_graph, &logger);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 558);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 558);
 
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters {
                        base_penalty_msat: 500, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
@@ -3149,7 +3077,7 @@ mod tests {
                };
 
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default(), &network_graph, &logger);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 558 + 128);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 558 + 128);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -3157,7 +3085,6 @@ mod tests {
                let logger = TestLogger::new();
                let network_graph = network_graph(&logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512_000,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
@@ -3170,7 +3097,13 @@ mod tests {
                        ..ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default(), &network_graph, &logger);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 300);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 300);
 
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters {
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
@@ -3178,7 +3111,7 @@ mod tests {
                        ..ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default(), &network_graph, &logger);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 337);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 337);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -3186,20 +3119,24 @@ mod tests {
                let logger = TestLogger::new();
                let network_graph = network_graph(&logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: u64::max_value(),
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Infinite,
                };
-
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters {
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 40_000,
                        ..ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let decay_params = ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::zero_penalty();
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(decay_params, &network_graph, &logger);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 80_000);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 80_000);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -3212,17 +3149,23 @@ mod tests {
                };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default(), &network_graph, &logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
 
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 750,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
-               assert_ne!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+               let network_graph = network_graph.read_only();
+               let channel = network_graph.channel(42).unwrap();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_ne!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
 
                let usage = ChannelUsage { inflight_htlc_msat: 251, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -3232,7 +3175,6 @@ mod tests {
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::default();
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default(), &network_graph, &logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
 
                let base_penalty_msat = params.base_penalty_msat;
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
@@ -3240,13 +3182,20 @@ mod tests {
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::ExactLiquidity { liquidity_msat: 1_000 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), base_penalty_msat);
+               let network_graph = network_graph.read_only();
+               let channel = network_graph.channel(42).unwrap();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), base_penalty_msat);
 
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_000, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), base_penalty_msat);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), base_penalty_msat);
 
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_001, ..usage };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), u64::max_value());
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -3277,16 +3226,36 @@ mod tests {
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_024 },
                };
 
-               // With no historical data the normal liquidity penalty calculation is used.
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 168);
+               {
+                       let network_graph = network_graph.read_only();
+                       let channel = network_graph.channel(42).unwrap();
+                       let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+                       let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                               info,
+                               short_channel_id: 42,
+                       };
+
+                       // With no historical data the normal liquidity penalty calculation is used.
+                       assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 168);
+               }
                assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target),
-                       None);
+               None);
                assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_payment_success_probability(42, &target, 42, &params),
-                       None);
+               None);
+
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(1), 42, Duration::ZERO);
+               {
+                       let network_graph = network_graph.read_only();
+                       let channel = network_graph.channel(42).unwrap();
+                       let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+                       let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                               info,
+                               short_channel_id: 42,
+                       };
 
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(1), 42);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 2048);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage_1, &params), 249);
+                       assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 2048);
+                       assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage_1, &params), 249);
+               }
                // The "it failed" increment is 32, where the probability should lie several buckets into
                // the first octile.
                assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target),
@@ -3299,8 +3268,18 @@ mod tests {
 
                // Even after we tell the scorer we definitely have enough available liquidity, it will
                // still remember that there was some failure in the past, and assign a non-0 penalty.
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(1000), 43);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 105);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(1000), 43, Duration::ZERO);
+               {
+                       let network_graph = network_graph.read_only();
+                       let channel = network_graph.channel(42).unwrap();
+                       let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+                       let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                               info,
+                               short_channel_id: 42,
+                       };
+
+                       assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 105);
+               }
                // The first points should be decayed just slightly and the last bucket has a new point.
                assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target),
                        Some(([31, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 32, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
@@ -3319,12 +3298,22 @@ mod tests {
 
                // Advance the time forward 16 half-lives (which the docs claim will ensure all data is
                // gone), and check that we're back to where we started.
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10 * 16));
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 168);
+               scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(Duration::from_secs(10 * 16));
+               {
+                       let network_graph = network_graph.read_only();
+                       let channel = network_graph.channel(42).unwrap();
+                       let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+                       let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                               info,
+                               short_channel_id: 42,
+                       };
+
+                       assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 168);
+               }
                // Once fully decayed we still have data, but its all-0s. In the future we may remove the
                // data entirely instead.
                assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target),
-                       None);
+                       Some(([0; 32], [0; 32])));
                assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_payment_success_probability(42, &target, 1, &params), None);
 
                let mut usage = ChannelUsage {
@@ -3332,20 +3321,33 @@ mod tests {
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 1024,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_024 },
                };
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(1), 42);
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 2050);
-               usage.inflight_htlc_msat = 0;
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 866);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(1), 42, Duration::from_secs(10 * 16));
+               {
+                       let network_graph = network_graph.read_only();
+                       let channel = network_graph.channel(42).unwrap();
+                       let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+                       let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                               info,
+                               short_channel_id: 42,
+                       };
 
-               let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       amount_msat: 1,
-                       inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::AdvertisedMaxHTLC { amount_msat: 0 },
-               };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &target, &source, usage, &params), 2048);
+                       assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 2050);
+
+                       let usage = ChannelUsage {
+                               amount_msat: 1,
+                               inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
+                               effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::AdvertisedMaxHTLC { amount_msat: 0 },
+                       };
+                       assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 2048);
+               }
 
                // Advance to decay all liquidity offsets to zero.
-               SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(60 * 60 * 10));
+               scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(Duration::from_secs(10 * (16 + 60 * 60)));
+
+               // Once even the bounds have decayed information about the channel should be removed
+               // entirely.
+               assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target),
+                       None);
 
                // Use a path in the opposite direction, which have zero for htlc_maximum_msat. This will
                // ensure that the effective capacity is zero to test division-by-zero edge cases.
@@ -3354,7 +3356,7 @@ mod tests {
                        path_hop(source_pubkey(), 42, 1),
                        path_hop(sender_pubkey(), 41, 0),
                ];
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&Path { hops: path, blinded_tail: None }, 42);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&Path { hops: path, blinded_tail: None }, 42, Duration::from_secs(10 * (16 + 60 * 60)));
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -3362,7 +3364,6 @@ mod tests {
                let logger = TestLogger::new();
                let network_graph = network_graph(&logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters {
                        anti_probing_penalty_msat: 500,
                        ..ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters::zero_penalty()
@@ -3375,7 +3376,14 @@ mod tests {
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
+               let network_graph = network_graph.read_only();
+               let channel = network_graph.channel(42).unwrap();
+               let (info, _) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
 
                // Check we receive anti-probing penalty for htlc_maximum_msat == channel_capacity.
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
@@ -3383,7 +3391,7 @@ mod tests {
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_024_000 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 500);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 500);
 
                // Check we receive anti-probing penalty for htlc_maximum_msat == channel_capacity/2.
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
@@ -3391,7 +3399,7 @@ mod tests {
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 512_000 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 500);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 500);
 
                // Check we receive no anti-probing penalty for htlc_maximum_msat == channel_capacity/2 - 1.
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
@@ -3399,7 +3407,7 @@ mod tests {
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 511_999 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 0);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 0);
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -3414,13 +3422,18 @@ mod tests {
                let decay_params = ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters::default();
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(decay_params, &network_graph, &logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 300);
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, target) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 300);
 
                let mut path = payment_path_for_amount(768);
                let recipient_hop = path.hops.pop().unwrap();
@@ -3442,12 +3455,12 @@ mod tests {
                // final value is taken into account.
                assert!(scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).is_none());
 
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&path, 42);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&path, 42, Duration::ZERO);
                path.blinded_tail.as_mut().unwrap().final_value_msat = 256;
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&path, 43);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&path, 43, Duration::ZERO);
 
                let liquidity = scorer.channel_liquidities.get(&42).unwrap()
-                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000, decay_params);
+                       .as_directed(&source, &target, 1_000);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.min_liquidity_msat(), 256);
                assert_eq!(liquidity.max_liquidity_msat(), 768);
        }
@@ -3476,7 +3489,6 @@ mod tests {
 
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(decay_params, &network_graph, &logger);
                let source = source_node_id();
-               let target = target_node_id();
 
                let mut amount_msat = 10_000_000;
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
@@ -3484,19 +3496,25 @@ mod tests {
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
                        effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat, htlc_maximum_msat: capacity_msat },
                };
+               let channel = network_graph.read_only().channel(42).unwrap().to_owned();
+               let (info, target) = channel.as_directed_from(&source).unwrap();
+               let candidate = CandidateRouteHop::PublicHop {
+                       info,
+                       short_channel_id: 42,
+               };
                // With no historical data the normal liquidity penalty calculation is used, which results
                // in a success probability of ~75%.
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params), 1269);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params), 1269);
                assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target),
                        None);
                assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_payment_success_probability(42, &target, 42, &params),
                        None);
 
                // Fail to pay once, and then check the buckets and penalty.
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(amount_msat), 42);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(amount_msat), 42, Duration::ZERO);
                // The penalty should be the maximum penalty, as the payment we're scoring is now in the
                // same bucket which is the only maximum datapoint.
-               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage, &params),
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(&candidate, usage, &params),
                        2048 + 2048 * amount_msat / super::AMOUNT_PENALTY_DIVISOR);
                // The "it failed" increment is 32, which we should apply to the first upper-bound (between
                // 6k sats and 12k sats).
@@ -3517,7 +3535,7 @@ mod tests {
                // ...but once we see a failure, we consider the payment to be substantially less likely,
                // even though not a probability of zero as we still look at the second max bucket which
                // now shows 31.
-               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(amount_msat), 42);
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(amount_msat), 42, Duration::ZERO);
                assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target),
                        Some(([63, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0],
                                [32, 31, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0])));
@@ -3525,3 +3543,24 @@ mod tests {
                        Some(0.0));
        }
 }
+
+#[cfg(ldk_bench)]
+pub mod benches {
+       use super::*;
+       use criterion::Criterion;
+       use crate::routing::router::{bench_utils, RouteHop};
+       use crate::util::test_utils::TestLogger;
+       use crate::ln::features::{ChannelFeatures, NodeFeatures};
+
+       pub fn decay_100k_channel_bounds(bench: &mut Criterion) {
+               let logger = TestLogger::new();
+               let (network_graph, mut scorer) = bench_utils::read_graph_scorer(&logger).unwrap();
+               let mut cur_time = Duration::ZERO;
+                       cur_time += Duration::from_millis(1);
+                       scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(cur_time);
+               bench.bench_function("decay_100k_channel_bounds", |b| b.iter(|| {
+                       cur_time += Duration::from_millis(1);
+                       scorer.decay_liquidity_certainty(cur_time);
+               }));
+       }
+}