Move `chain::Access` to `routing` and rename it `UtxoLookup`
[rust-lightning] / lightning / src / routing / scoring.rs
index 1c13771b1b7224432b1e79db5c2ceec6a97d752a..f16dd2d5b401e521c7299cfa3e2b647cb9d105ab 100644 (file)
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@
 //! # use lightning::routing::gossip::NetworkGraph;
 //! # use lightning::routing::router::{RouteParameters, find_route};
 //! # use lightning::routing::scoring::{ProbabilisticScorer, ProbabilisticScoringParameters};
-//! # use lightning::chain::keysinterface::{KeysManager, KeysInterface};
+//! # use lightning::chain::keysinterface::KeysManager;
 //! # use lightning::util::logger::{Logger, Record};
 //! # use bitcoin::secp256k1::PublicKey;
 //! #
@@ -597,7 +597,22 @@ struct HistoricalMinMaxBuckets<'a> {
 
 impl HistoricalMinMaxBuckets<'_> {
        #[inline]
-       fn calculate_success_probability_times_billion(&self, required_decays: u32, payment_amt_64th_bucket: u8) -> Option<u64> {
+       fn get_decayed_buckets<T: Time>(&self, now: T, last_updated: T, half_life: Duration)
+       -> ([u16; 8], [u16; 8], u32) {
+               let required_decays = now.duration_since(last_updated).as_secs()
+                       .checked_div(half_life.as_secs())
+                       .map_or(u32::max_value(), |decays| cmp::min(decays, u32::max_value() as u64) as u32);
+               let mut min_buckets = *self.min_liquidity_offset_history;
+               min_buckets.time_decay_data(required_decays);
+               let mut max_buckets = *self.max_liquidity_offset_history;
+               max_buckets.time_decay_data(required_decays);
+               (min_buckets.buckets, max_buckets.buckets, required_decays)
+       }
+
+       #[inline]
+       fn calculate_success_probability_times_billion<T: Time>(
+               &self, now: T, last_updated: T, half_life: Duration, payment_amt_64th_bucket: u8)
+       -> Option<u64> {
                // If historical penalties are enabled, calculate the penalty by walking the set of
                // historical liquidity bucket (min, max) combinations (where min_idx < max_idx) and, for
                // each, calculate the probability of success given our payment amount, then total the
@@ -619,23 +634,22 @@ impl HistoricalMinMaxBuckets<'_> {
                // less than 1/16th of a channel's capacity, or 1/8th if we used the top of the bucket.
                let mut total_valid_points_tracked = 0;
 
-               // Rather than actually decaying the individual buckets, which would lose precision, we
-               // simply track whether all buckets would be decayed to zero, in which case we treat it as
-               // if we had no data.
-               let mut is_fully_decayed = true;
-               let mut check_track_bucket_contains_undecayed_points =
-                       |bucket_val: u16| if bucket_val.checked_shr(required_decays).unwrap_or(0) > 0 { is_fully_decayed = false; };
+               // Check if all our buckets are zero, once decayed and treat it as if we had no data. We
+               // don't actually use the decayed buckets, though, as that would lose precision.
+               let (decayed_min_buckets, decayed_max_buckets, required_decays) =
+                       self.get_decayed_buckets(now, last_updated, half_life);
+               if decayed_min_buckets.iter().all(|v| *v == 0) || decayed_max_buckets.iter().all(|v| *v == 0) {
+                       return None;
+               }
 
                for (min_idx, min_bucket) in self.min_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().enumerate() {
-                       check_track_bucket_contains_undecayed_points(*min_bucket);
                        for max_bucket in self.max_liquidity_offset_history.buckets.iter().take(8 - min_idx) {
                                total_valid_points_tracked += (*min_bucket as u64) * (*max_bucket as u64);
-                               check_track_bucket_contains_undecayed_points(*max_bucket);
                        }
                }
                // If the total valid points is smaller than 1.0 (i.e. 32 in our fixed-point scheme), treat
                // it as if we were fully decayed.
-               if total_valid_points_tracked.checked_shr(required_decays).unwrap_or(0) < 32*32 || is_fully_decayed {
+               if total_valid_points_tracked.checked_shr(required_decays).unwrap_or(0) < 32*32 {
                        return None;
                }
 
@@ -717,6 +731,8 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU
        /// Note that this writes roughly one line per channel for which we have a liquidity estimate,
        /// which may be a substantial amount of log output.
        pub fn debug_log_liquidity_stats(&self) {
+               let now = T::now();
+
                let graph = self.network_graph.read_only();
                for (scid, liq) in self.channel_liquidities.iter() {
                        if let Some(chan_debug) = graph.channels().get(scid) {
@@ -724,8 +740,25 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU
                                        if let Some((directed_info, _)) = chan_debug.as_directed_to(target) {
                                                let amt = directed_info.effective_capacity().as_msat();
                                                let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, amt, &self.params);
-                                               log_debug!(self.logger, "Liquidity from {:?} to {:?} via {} is in the range ({}, {})",
-                                                       source, target, scid, dir_liq.min_liquidity_msat(), dir_liq.max_liquidity_msat());
+
+                                               let buckets = HistoricalMinMaxBuckets {
+                                                       min_liquidity_offset_history: &dir_liq.min_liquidity_offset_history,
+                                                       max_liquidity_offset_history: &dir_liq.max_liquidity_offset_history,
+                                               };
+                                               let (min_buckets, max_buckets, _) = buckets.get_decayed_buckets(now,
+                                                       *dir_liq.last_updated, self.params.historical_no_updates_half_life);
+
+                                               log_debug!(self.logger, core::concat!(
+                                                       "Liquidity from {} to {} via {} is in the range ({}, {}).\n",
+                                                       "\tHistorical min liquidity octile relative probabilities: {} {} {} {} {} {} {} {}\n",
+                                                       "\tHistorical max liquidity octile relative probabilities: {} {} {} {} {} {} {} {}"),
+                                                       source, target, scid, dir_liq.min_liquidity_msat(), dir_liq.max_liquidity_msat(),
+                                                       min_buckets[0], min_buckets[1], min_buckets[2], min_buckets[3],
+                                                       min_buckets[4], min_buckets[5], min_buckets[6], min_buckets[7],
+                                                       // Note that the liquidity buckets are an offset from the edge, so we
+                                                       // inverse the max order to get the probabilities from zero.
+                                                       max_buckets[7], max_buckets[6], max_buckets[5], max_buckets[4],
+                                                       max_buckets[3], max_buckets[2], max_buckets[1], max_buckets[0]);
                                        } else {
                                                log_debug!(self.logger, "No amount known for SCID {} from {:?} to {:?}", scid, source, target);
                                        }
@@ -756,6 +789,53 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerU
                None
        }
 
+       /// Query the historical estimated minimum and maximum liquidity available for sending a
+       /// payment over the channel with `scid` towards the given `target` node.
+       ///
+       /// Returns two sets of 8 buckets. The first set describes the octiles for lower-bound
+       /// liquidity estimates, the second set describes the octiles for upper-bound liquidity
+       /// estimates. Each bucket describes the relative frequency at which we've seen a liquidity
+       /// bound in the octile relative to the channel's total capacity, on an arbitrary scale.
+       /// Because the values are slowly decayed, more recent data points are weighted more heavily
+       /// than older datapoints.
+       ///
+       /// When scoring, the estimated probability that an upper-/lower-bound lies in a given octile
+       /// relative to the channel's total capacity is calculated by dividing that bucket's value with
+       /// the total of all buckets for the given bound.
+       ///
+       /// For example, a value of `[0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 32]` indicates that we believe the probability
+       /// of a bound being in the top octile to be 100%, and have never (recently) seen it in any
+       /// other octiles. A value of `[31, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 32]` indicates we've seen the bound being
+       /// both in the top and bottom octile, and roughly with similar (recent) frequency.
+       ///
+       /// Because the datapoints are decayed slowly over time, values will eventually return to
+       /// `Some(([0; 8], [0; 8]))`.
+       pub fn historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(&self, scid: u64, target: &NodeId)
+       -> Option<([u16; 8], [u16; 8])> {
+               let graph = self.network_graph.read_only();
+
+               if let Some(chan) = graph.channels().get(&scid) {
+                       if let Some(liq) = self.channel_liquidities.get(&scid) {
+                               if let Some((directed_info, source)) = chan.as_directed_to(target) {
+                                       let amt = directed_info.effective_capacity().as_msat();
+                                       let dir_liq = liq.as_directed(source, target, amt, &self.params);
+
+                                       let buckets = HistoricalMinMaxBuckets {
+                                               min_liquidity_offset_history: &dir_liq.min_liquidity_offset_history,
+                                               max_liquidity_offset_history: &dir_liq.max_liquidity_offset_history,
+                                       };
+                                       let (min_buckets, mut max_buckets, _) = buckets.get_decayed_buckets(T::now(),
+                                               *dir_liq.last_updated, self.params.historical_no_updates_half_life);
+                                       // Note that the liquidity buckets are an offset from the edge, so we inverse
+                                       // the max order to get the probabilities from zero.
+                                       max_buckets.reverse();
+                                       return Some((min_buckets, max_buckets));
+                               }
+                       }
+               }
+               None
+       }
+
        /// Marks the node with the given `node_id` as banned, i.e.,
        /// it will be avoided during path finding.
        pub fn add_banned(&mut self, node_id: &NodeId) {
@@ -942,9 +1022,6 @@ impl<L: Deref<Target = u64>, BRT: Deref<Target = HistoricalBucketRangeTracker>,
 
                if params.historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat != 0 ||
                   params.historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat != 0 {
-                       let required_decays = self.now.duration_since(*self.last_updated).as_secs()
-                               .checked_div(params.historical_no_updates_half_life.as_secs())
-                               .map_or(u32::max_value(), |decays| cmp::min(decays, u32::max_value() as u64) as u32);
                        let payment_amt_64th_bucket = amount_msat * 64 / self.capacity_msat;
                        debug_assert!(payment_amt_64th_bucket <= 64);
                        if payment_amt_64th_bucket > 64 { return res; }
@@ -954,7 +1031,9 @@ impl<L: Deref<Target = u64>, BRT: Deref<Target = HistoricalBucketRangeTracker>,
                                max_liquidity_offset_history: &self.max_liquidity_offset_history,
                        };
                        if let Some(cumulative_success_prob_times_billion) = buckets
-                                       .calculate_success_probability_times_billion(required_decays, payment_amt_64th_bucket as u8) {
+                               .calculate_success_probability_times_billion(self.now, *self.last_updated,
+                                       params.historical_no_updates_half_life, payment_amt_64th_bucket as u8)
+                       {
                                let historical_negative_log10_times_2048 = approx::negative_log10_times_2048(cumulative_success_prob_times_billion + 1, 1024 * 1024 * 1024);
                                res = res.saturating_add(Self::combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat,
                                        historical_negative_log10_times_2048, params.historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat,
@@ -1113,7 +1192,7 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> Score for Probabilis
                                        return base_penalty_msat;
                                }
                        },
-                       EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(htlc_maximum_msat) } => {
+                       EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat, htlc_maximum_msat } => {
                                if htlc_maximum_msat >= capacity_msat/2 {
                                        anti_probing_penalty_msat = self.params.anti_probing_penalty_msat;
                                }
@@ -1143,31 +1222,32 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref, T: Time> Score for Probabilis
                                .get(&hop.short_channel_id)
                                .and_then(|channel| channel.as_directed_to(&target));
 
-                       if hop.short_channel_id == short_channel_id && hop_idx == 0 {
+                       let at_failed_channel = hop.short_channel_id == short_channel_id;
+                       if at_failed_channel && hop_idx == 0 {
                                log_warn!(self.logger, "Payment failed at the first hop - we do not attempt to learn channel info in such cases as we can directly observe local state.\n\tBecause we know the local state, we should generally not see failures here - this may be an indication that your channel peer on channel {} is broken and you may wish to close the channel.", hop.short_channel_id);
                        }
 
                        // Only score announced channels.
                        if let Some((channel, source)) = channel_directed_from_source {
                                let capacity_msat = channel.effective_capacity().as_msat();
-                               if hop.short_channel_id == short_channel_id {
+                               if at_failed_channel {
                                        self.channel_liquidities
                                                .entry(hop.short_channel_id)
                                                .or_insert_with(ChannelLiquidity::new)
                                                .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat, &self.params)
                                                .failed_at_channel(amount_msat, format_args!("SCID {}, towards {:?}", hop.short_channel_id, target), &self.logger);
-                                       break;
+                               } else {
+                                       self.channel_liquidities
+                                               .entry(hop.short_channel_id)
+                                               .or_insert_with(ChannelLiquidity::new)
+                                               .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat, &self.params)
+                                               .failed_downstream(amount_msat, format_args!("SCID {}, towards {:?}", hop.short_channel_id, target), &self.logger);
                                }
-
-                               self.channel_liquidities
-                                       .entry(hop.short_channel_id)
-                                       .or_insert_with(ChannelLiquidity::new)
-                                       .as_directed_mut(source, &target, capacity_msat, &self.params)
-                                       .failed_downstream(amount_msat, format_args!("SCID {}, towards {:?}", hop.short_channel_id, target), &self.logger);
                        } else {
                                log_debug!(self.logger, "Not able to penalize channel with SCID {} as we do not have graph info for it (likely a route-hint last-hop).",
                                        hop.short_channel_id);
                        }
+                       if at_failed_channel { break; }
                }
        }
 
@@ -1601,6 +1681,7 @@ impl<T: Time> Readable for ChannelLiquidity<T> {
 #[cfg(test)]
 mod tests {
        use super::{ChannelLiquidity, HistoricalBucketRangeTracker, ProbabilisticScoringParameters, ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime};
+       use crate::util::config::UserConfig;
        use crate::util::time::Time;
        use crate::util::time::tests::SinceEpoch;
 
@@ -1695,13 +1776,13 @@ mod tests {
                let node_2_secret = &SecretKey::from_slice(&[40; 32]).unwrap();
                let secp_ctx = Secp256k1::new();
                let unsigned_announcement = UnsignedChannelAnnouncement {
-                       features: channelmanager::provided_channel_features(),
+                       features: channelmanager::provided_channel_features(&UserConfig::default()),
                        chain_hash: genesis_hash,
                        short_channel_id,
-                       node_id_1: PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &node_1_key),
-                       node_id_2: PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &node_2_key),
-                       bitcoin_key_1: PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &node_1_secret),
-                       bitcoin_key_2: PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &node_2_secret),
+                       node_id_1: NodeId::from_pubkey(&PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &node_1_key)),
+                       node_id_2: NodeId::from_pubkey(&PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &node_2_key)),
+                       bitcoin_key_1: NodeId::from_pubkey(&PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &node_1_secret)),
+                       bitcoin_key_2: NodeId::from_pubkey(&PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &node_2_secret)),
                        excess_data: Vec::new(),
                };
                let msghash = hash_to_message!(&Sha256dHash::hash(&unsigned_announcement.encode()[..])[..]);
@@ -1745,32 +1826,23 @@ mod tests {
                network_graph.update_channel(&signed_update).unwrap();
        }
 
+       fn path_hop(pubkey: PublicKey, short_channel_id: u64, fee_msat: u64) -> RouteHop {
+               let config = UserConfig::default();
+               RouteHop {
+                       pubkey,
+                       node_features: channelmanager::provided_node_features(&config),
+                       short_channel_id,
+                       channel_features: channelmanager::provided_channel_features(&config),
+                       fee_msat,
+                       cltv_expiry_delta: 18,
+               }
+       }
+
        fn payment_path_for_amount(amount_msat: u64) -> Vec<RouteHop> {
                vec![
-                       RouteHop {
-                               pubkey: source_pubkey(),
-                               node_features: channelmanager::provided_node_features(),
-                               short_channel_id: 41,
-                               channel_features: channelmanager::provided_channel_features(),
-                               fee_msat: 1,
-                               cltv_expiry_delta: 18,
-                       },
-                       RouteHop {
-                               pubkey: target_pubkey(),
-                               node_features: channelmanager::provided_node_features(),
-                               short_channel_id: 42,
-                               channel_features: channelmanager::provided_channel_features(),
-                               fee_msat: 2,
-                               cltv_expiry_delta: 18,
-                       },
-                       RouteHop {
-                               pubkey: recipient_pubkey(),
-                               node_features: channelmanager::provided_node_features(),
-                               short_channel_id: 43,
-                               channel_features: channelmanager::provided_channel_features(),
-                               fee_msat: amount_msat,
-                               cltv_expiry_delta: 18,
-                       },
+                       path_hop(source_pubkey(), 41, 1),
+                       path_hop(target_pubkey(), 42, 2),
+                       path_hop(recipient_pubkey(), 43, amount_msat),
                ]
        }
 
@@ -1985,7 +2057,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 1_024,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 10_240, ..usage };
@@ -1998,7 +2070,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 128,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 58);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 256, ..usage };
@@ -2038,7 +2110,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 39,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 100, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 100, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 50, ..usage };
@@ -2062,7 +2134,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 500,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                let failed_path = payment_path_for_amount(500);
                let successful_path = payment_path_for_amount(200);
@@ -2092,7 +2164,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 250,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 128);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 500, ..usage };
@@ -2127,7 +2199,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 250,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 128);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 500, ..usage };
@@ -2145,6 +2217,65 @@ mod tests {
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), u64::max_value());
        }
 
+       #[test]
+       fn ignores_channels_after_removed_failed_channel() {
+               // Previously, if we'd tried to send over a channel which was removed from the network
+               // graph before we call `payment_path_failed` (which is the default if the we get a "no
+               // such channel" error in the `InvoicePayer`), we would call `failed_downstream` on all
+               // channels in the route, even ones which they payment never reached. This tests to ensure
+               // we do not score such channels.
+               let secp_ctx = Secp256k1::new();
+               let logger = TestLogger::new();
+               let genesis_hash = genesis_block(Network::Testnet).header.block_hash();
+               let mut network_graph = NetworkGraph::new(genesis_hash, &logger);
+               let secret_a = SecretKey::from_slice(&[42; 32]).unwrap();
+               let secret_b = SecretKey::from_slice(&[43; 32]).unwrap();
+               let secret_c = SecretKey::from_slice(&[44; 32]).unwrap();
+               let secret_d = SecretKey::from_slice(&[45; 32]).unwrap();
+               add_channel(&mut network_graph, 42, secret_a, secret_b);
+               // Don't add the channel from B -> C.
+               add_channel(&mut network_graph, 44, secret_c, secret_d);
+
+               let pub_a = PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &secret_a);
+               let pub_b = PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &secret_b);
+               let pub_c = PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &secret_c);
+               let pub_d = PublicKey::from_secret_key(&secp_ctx, &secret_d);
+
+               let path = vec![
+                       path_hop(pub_b, 42, 1),
+                       path_hop(pub_c, 43, 2),
+                       path_hop(pub_d, 44, 100),
+               ];
+
+               let node_a = NodeId::from_pubkey(&pub_a);
+               let node_b = NodeId::from_pubkey(&pub_b);
+               let node_c = NodeId::from_pubkey(&pub_c);
+               let node_d = NodeId::from_pubkey(&pub_d);
+
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
+               };
+               let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph, &logger);
+
+               let usage = ChannelUsage {
+                       amount_msat: 250,
+                       inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
+               };
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &node_a, &node_b, usage), 128);
+               // Note that a default liquidity bound is used for B -> C as no channel exists
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(43, &node_b, &node_c, usage), 128);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(44, &node_c, &node_d, usage), 128);
+
+               scorer.payment_path_failed(&path.iter().collect::<Vec<_>>(), 43);
+
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &node_a, &node_b, usage), 80);
+               // Note that a default liquidity bound is used for B -> C as no channel exists
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(43, &node_b, &node_c, usage), 128);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(44, &node_c, &node_d, usage), 128);
+       }
+
        #[test]
        fn reduces_liquidity_upper_bound_along_path_on_success() {
                let logger = TestLogger::new();
@@ -2161,7 +2292,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 250,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                let path = payment_path_for_amount(500);
 
@@ -2193,7 +2324,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 0,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_024) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_024 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 0);
                let usage = ChannelUsage { amount_msat: 1_023, ..usage };
@@ -2271,7 +2402,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 256,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 125);
 
@@ -2302,7 +2433,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
 
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 300);
@@ -2347,7 +2478,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 500,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(500).iter().collect::<Vec<_>>(), 42);
@@ -2384,7 +2515,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 500,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(500).iter().collect::<Vec<_>>(), 42);
@@ -2421,47 +2552,47 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 100_000_000,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 4375);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 2739);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 2_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 2_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 2236);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 3_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 3_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1983);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 4_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 4_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1637);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 5_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 5_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1606);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 6_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 6_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1331);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 7_450_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 7_450_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1387);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 7_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 7_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1379);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 8_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 8_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1363);
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 9_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) }, ..usage
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 9_950_000_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 }, ..usage
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 1355);
        }
@@ -2475,7 +2606,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 128,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
 
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
@@ -2511,7 +2642,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512_000,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
 
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
@@ -2566,7 +2697,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 750,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_ne!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), u64::max_value());
 
@@ -2615,23 +2746,36 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 100,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_024) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_024 },
                };
                // With no historical data the normal liquidity penalty calculation is used.
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 47);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target),
+                       None);
 
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(1).iter().collect::<Vec<_>>(), 42);
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 2048);
+               // The "it failed" increment is 32, where the probability should lie fully in the first
+               // octile.
+               assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target),
+                       Some(([32, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0], [32, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0])));
 
                // Even after we tell the scorer we definitely have enough available liquidity, it will
                // still remember that there was some failure in the past, and assign a non-0 penalty.
                scorer.payment_path_failed(&payment_path_for_amount(1000).iter().collect::<Vec<_>>(), 43);
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 198);
+               // The first octile should be decayed just slightly and the last octile has a new point.
+               assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target),
+                       Some(([31, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 32], [31, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 32])));
 
                // Advance the time forward 16 half-lives (which the docs claim will ensure all data is
                // gone), and check that we're back to where we started.
                SinceEpoch::advance(Duration::from_secs(10 * 16));
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 47);
+               // Once fully decayed we still have data, but its all-0s. In the future we may remove the
+               // data entirely instead.
+               assert_eq!(scorer.historical_estimated_channel_liquidity_probabilities(42, &target),
+                       Some(([0; 8], [0; 8])));
        }
 
        #[test]
@@ -2650,7 +2794,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512_000,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 0);
 
@@ -2658,7 +2802,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512_000,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(1_024_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 1_024_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 500);
 
@@ -2666,7 +2810,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512_000,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(512_000) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 512_000 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 500);
 
@@ -2674,7 +2818,7 @@ mod tests {
                let usage = ChannelUsage {
                        amount_msat: 512_000,
                        inflight_htlc_msat: 0,
-                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: Some(511_999) },
+                       effective_capacity: EffectiveCapacity::Total { capacity_msat: 1_024_000, htlc_maximum_msat: 511_999 },
                };
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, &source, &target, usage), 0);
        }