Add an amount penalty to ProbabilisticScorer
authorJeffrey Czyz <jkczyz@gmail.com>
Thu, 31 Mar 2022 13:13:10 +0000 (08:13 -0500)
committerJeffrey Czyz <jkczyz@gmail.com>
Fri, 1 Apr 2022 20:52:10 +0000 (15:52 -0500)
The cost of large payments tends to be dominated by the channel fees. To
avoid this, add an amount penalty to ProbabilisticScorer with a user
configurable multiplier. The multiplier is applied for every 2^20th of
the amount weighted by the negative log10 of the channel's success
probability for the payment.

lightning/src/routing/scoring.rs

index f564fdf0ac844abd0430a97177467215181e9af2..b7aa996ce2efae9622208e1293dcebf8b1b3d8b9 100644 (file)
@@ -517,7 +517,7 @@ pub struct ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph>, T: Time
 
 /// Parameters for configuring [`ProbabilisticScorer`].
 ///
-/// Used to configure a base penalty and a liquidity penalty, the sum of which is the channel
+/// Used to configure base, liquidity, and amount penalties, the sum of which comprises the channel
 /// penalty (i.e., the amount in msats willing to be paid to avoid routing through the channel).
 #[derive(Clone, Copy)]
 pub struct ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
@@ -555,6 +555,25 @@ pub struct ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
        /// When built with the `no-std` feature, time will never elapse. Therefore, the channel
        /// liquidity knowledge will never decay except when the bounds cross.
        pub liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration,
+
+       /// A multiplier used in conjunction with a payment amount and the negative `log10` of the
+       /// channel's success probability for the payment to determine the amount penalty.
+       ///
+       /// The purpose of the amount penalty is to avoid having fees dominate the channel cost (i.e.,
+       /// fees plus penalty) for large payments. The penalty is computed as the product of this
+       /// multiplier and `2^20`ths of the payment amount, weighted by the negative `log10` of the
+       /// success probability.
+       ///
+       /// `-log10(success_probability) * amount_penalty_multiplier_msat * amount_msat / 2^20`
+       ///
+       /// In practice, this means for 0.1 success probability (`-log10(0.1) == 1`) each `2^20`th of
+       /// the amount will result in a penalty of the multiplier. And, as the success probability
+       /// decreases, the negative `log10` weighting will increase dramatically. For higher success
+       /// probabilities, the multiplier will have a decreasing effect as the negative `log10` will
+       /// fall below `1`.
+       ///
+       /// Default value: 256 msat
+       pub amount_penalty_multiplier_msat: u64,
 }
 
 /// Accounting for channel liquidity balance uncertainty.
@@ -602,12 +621,25 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph>, T: Time> ProbabilisticScorerUsingTime<G, T
        }
 }
 
+impl ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
+       #[cfg(test)]
+       fn zero_penalty() -> Self {
+               Self {
+                       base_penalty_msat: 0,
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 0,
+                       liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(3600),
+                       amount_penalty_multiplier_msat: 0,
+               }
+       }
+}
+
 impl Default for ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
        fn default() -> Self {
                Self {
                        base_penalty_msat: 500,
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 40_000,
                        liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(3600),
+                       amount_penalty_multiplier_msat: 256,
                }
        }
 }
@@ -665,11 +697,17 @@ impl<T: Time> ChannelLiquidity<T> {
        }
 }
 
+/// Bounds `-log10` to avoid excessive liquidity penalties for payments with low success
+/// probabilities.
+const NEGATIVE_LOG10_UPPER_BOUND: u64 = 2;
+
+/// The divisor used when computing the amount penalty.
+const AMOUNT_PENALTY_DIVISOR: u64 = 1 << 20;
+
 impl<L: Deref<Target = u64>, T: Time, U: Deref<Target = T>> DirectedChannelLiquidity<L, T, U> {
        /// Returns a penalty for routing the given HTLC `amount_msat` through the channel in this
        /// direction.
-       fn penalty_msat(&self, amount_msat: u64, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: u64) -> u64 {
-               let max_penalty_msat = liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat.saturating_mul(2);
+       fn penalty_msat(&self, amount_msat: u64, params: ProbabilisticScoringParameters) -> u64 {
                let max_liquidity_msat = self.max_liquidity_msat();
                let min_liquidity_msat = core::cmp::min(self.min_liquidity_msat(), max_liquidity_msat);
                if amount_msat <= min_liquidity_msat {
@@ -681,18 +719,41 @@ impl<L: Deref<Target = u64>, T: Time, U: Deref<Target = T>> DirectedChannelLiqui
                                // Avoid using the failed channel on retry.
                                u64::max_value()
                        } else {
-                               max_penalty_msat
+                               // Equivalent to hitting the else clause below with the amount equal to the
+                               // effective capacity and without any certainty on the liquidity upper bound.
+                               let negative_log10_times_1024 = NEGATIVE_LOG10_UPPER_BOUND * 1024;
+                               self.combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat, negative_log10_times_1024, params)
                        }
                } else {
                        let numerator = (max_liquidity_msat - amount_msat).saturating_add(1);
                        let denominator = (max_liquidity_msat - min_liquidity_msat).saturating_add(1);
-                       let penalty_msat = approx::negative_log10_times_1024(numerator, denominator)
-                               .saturating_mul(liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat) / 1024;
-                       // Upper bound the penalty to ensure some channel is selected.
-                       penalty_msat.min(max_penalty_msat)
+                       let negative_log10_times_1024 =
+                               approx::negative_log10_times_1024(numerator, denominator);
+                       self.combined_penalty_msat(amount_msat, negative_log10_times_1024, params)
                }
        }
 
+       /// Computes the liquidity and amount penalties and adds them to the base penalty.
+       #[inline(always)]
+       fn combined_penalty_msat(
+               &self, amount_msat: u64, negative_log10_times_1024: u64,
+               params: ProbabilisticScoringParameters
+       ) -> u64 {
+               let liquidity_penalty_msat = {
+                       // Upper bound the liquidity penalty to ensure some channel is selected.
+                       let multiplier_msat = params.liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat;
+                       let max_penalty_msat = multiplier_msat.saturating_mul(NEGATIVE_LOG10_UPPER_BOUND);
+                       (negative_log10_times_1024.saturating_mul(multiplier_msat) / 1024).min(max_penalty_msat)
+               };
+               let amount_penalty_msat = negative_log10_times_1024
+                       .saturating_mul(params.amount_penalty_multiplier_msat)
+                       .saturating_mul(amount_msat) / 1024 / AMOUNT_PENALTY_DIVISOR;
+
+               params.base_penalty_msat
+                       .saturating_add(liquidity_penalty_msat)
+                       .saturating_add(amount_penalty_msat)
+       }
+
        /// Returns the lower bound of the channel liquidity balance in this direction.
        fn min_liquidity_msat(&self) -> u64 {
                self.decayed_offset_msat(*self.min_liquidity_offset_msat)
@@ -762,14 +823,12 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph>, T: Time> Score for ProbabilisticScorerUsin
                &self, short_channel_id: u64, amount_msat: u64, capacity_msat: u64, source: &NodeId,
                target: &NodeId
        ) -> u64 {
-               let liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat = self.params.liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat;
                let liquidity_offset_half_life = self.params.liquidity_offset_half_life;
                self.channel_liquidities
                        .get(&short_channel_id)
                        .unwrap_or(&ChannelLiquidity::new())
                        .as_directed(source, target, capacity_msat, liquidity_offset_half_life)
-                       .penalty_msat(amount_msat, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat)
-                       .saturating_add(self.params.base_penalty_msat)
+                       .penalty_msat(amount_msat, self.params)
        }
 
        fn payment_path_failed(&mut self, path: &[&RouteHop], short_channel_id: u64) {
@@ -1747,7 +1806,8 @@ mod tests {
        fn increased_penalty_nearing_liquidity_upper_bound() {
                let network_graph = network_graph();
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
-                       base_penalty_msat: 0, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000, ..Default::default()
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph);
                let source = source_node_id();
@@ -1772,7 +1832,8 @@ mod tests {
                let last_updated = SinceEpoch::now();
                let network_graph = network_graph();
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
-                       base_penalty_msat: 0, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000, ..Default::default()
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph)
                        .with_channel(42,
@@ -1792,7 +1853,8 @@ mod tests {
        fn does_not_further_penalize_own_channel() {
                let network_graph = network_graph();
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
-                       base_penalty_msat: 0, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000, ..Default::default()
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph);
                let sender = sender_node_id();
@@ -1813,7 +1875,8 @@ mod tests {
        fn sets_liquidity_lower_bound_on_downstream_failure() {
                let network_graph = network_graph();
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
-                       base_penalty_msat: 0, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000, ..Default::default()
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph);
                let source = source_node_id();
@@ -1835,7 +1898,8 @@ mod tests {
        fn sets_liquidity_upper_bound_on_failure() {
                let network_graph = network_graph();
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
-                       base_penalty_msat: 0, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000, ..Default::default()
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph);
                let source = source_node_id();
@@ -1857,7 +1921,8 @@ mod tests {
        fn reduces_liquidity_upper_bound_along_path_on_success() {
                let network_graph = network_graph();
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
-                       base_penalty_msat: 0, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000, ..Default::default()
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph);
                let sender = sender_node_id();
@@ -1881,9 +1946,9 @@ mod tests {
        fn decays_liquidity_bounds_over_time() {
                let network_graph = network_graph();
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
-                       base_penalty_msat: 0,
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
                        liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(10),
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph);
                let source = source_node_id();
@@ -1933,9 +1998,9 @@ mod tests {
        fn decays_liquidity_bounds_without_shift_overflow() {
                let network_graph = network_graph();
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
-                       base_penalty_msat: 0,
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
                        liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(10),
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph);
                let source = source_node_id();
@@ -1958,9 +2023,9 @@ mod tests {
        fn restricts_liquidity_bounds_after_decay() {
                let network_graph = network_graph();
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
-                       base_penalty_msat: 0,
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
                        liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(10),
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph);
                let source = source_node_id();
@@ -1996,9 +2061,9 @@ mod tests {
        fn restores_persisted_liquidity_bounds() {
                let network_graph = network_graph();
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
-                       base_penalty_msat: 0,
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
                        liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(10),
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph);
                let source = source_node_id();
@@ -2026,9 +2091,9 @@ mod tests {
        fn decays_persisted_liquidity_bounds() {
                let network_graph = network_graph();
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
-                       base_penalty_msat: 0,
                        liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
                        liquidity_offset_half_life: Duration::from_secs(10),
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let mut scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph);
                let source = source_node_id();
@@ -2061,7 +2126,8 @@ mod tests {
                let target = target_node_id();
 
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
-                       base_penalty_msat: 0, liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000, ..Default::default()
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph);
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 128, 1_024, &source, &target), 58);
@@ -2073,6 +2139,29 @@ mod tests {
                assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 128, 1_024, &source, &target), 558);
        }
 
+       #[test]
+       fn adds_amount_penalty_to_liquidity_penalty() {
+               let network_graph = network_graph();
+               let source = source_node_id();
+               let target = target_node_id();
+
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
+                       amount_penalty_multiplier_msat: 0,
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
+               };
+               let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 512_000, 1_024_000, &source, &target), 300);
+
+               let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 1_000,
+                       amount_penalty_multiplier_msat: 256,
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
+               };
+               let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph);
+               assert_eq!(scorer.channel_penalty_msat(42, 512_000, 1_024_000, &source, &target), 337);
+       }
+
        #[test]
        fn calculates_log10_without_overflowing_u64_max_value() {
                let network_graph = network_graph();
@@ -2080,7 +2169,8 @@ mod tests {
                let target = target_node_id();
 
                let params = ProbabilisticScoringParameters {
-                       base_penalty_msat: 0, ..Default::default()
+                       liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 40_000,
+                       ..ProbabilisticScoringParameters::zero_penalty()
                };
                let scorer = ProbabilisticScorer::new(params, &network_graph);
                assert_eq!(